Syracuse and Wake both lost, USC, Xavier, and Cal all won. I still think Cal is out and the others are in. Illinois St and Rhode Island are, to me, the only ones out who can get in unless Cal, Illinois, or Iowa make big runs. I don’t think the Redbirds stack up well against any of the bubble teams. The Rams compare better, but could really use another win against Dayton. There are no bubble bursters left in my opinion other than the A10. The other conferences have no shot at AL bid or are too strong to allow a non AL bid team to win it.
Bubble games today:
Kansas St vs Baylor (W and in, L and we’ll see)
Xavier vs Butler (Xavier is a lock to me)
Illinois vs Michigan (Illini must keep winning)
Seton Hall vs Marquette (I think they’re both locks)
California vs Utah (Cal can’t lose this one)
Indiana vs Iowa (Iowa can’t lose)
Texas A&M vs Vandy (Vandy can’t lose)
Creighton vs Providence (I think friars are lock, but W will do it for sure)
Four teams are dancing: Wichita St, Jacksonville St, Winthrop, and Fla Gulf Coast. Jacksonville St is almost certainly a 16 seed and probably headed to Dayton. Shockers are probably in the 7-10 seed range, but their resume is just really thin. Their ratings are good, but they have just 2 top 100 wins. Winthrop will be 14 or 15 seed and FGC a 13 or 14 seed.
Belmont, Valpo, Oakland, UNC-Asheville, and Monmouth were all claimed by madness.
Bubble winners: Syracuse, Kansas St, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
Bubble losers: Illinois St, California, Illinois
Redbirds have an uncomfortably long wait until Sunday. I don’t think they’ll get in. They’re 2-3 against the top 100 and have two losses to 100+. Their RPI is great, but I just don’t think that’ll be good enough this time.
Kansas has the inside track on #1 overall seed, though if they lose and Nova wins out I think it will go to the defending champs. Kansas and Nova are 1 seed locks. I think Gonzaga is a safe 1 seed as well, with the fourth going to UNC, UCLA, Louisville, or Kentucky. Kansas will be in KC, guaranteed. Nova in New York guaranteed. Gonzaga will get San Jose, and UNC (probably) Memphis.
Safely in: All teams Providence and above
Sweating it out: Syracuse, Kansas St, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois, California, Illinois St, Rhode Island, Iowa
Still in contention: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, and Rhode Island.
Illinois, Syracuse, Kansas St, and Wake Forest all have very similar resumes. They’re last few games will likely determine whether they make it in. Vanderbilt isn’t too far behind. I think that’s it among high major candidates. I think the rest are done.
Along side them are Illinois State and Rhode Island. I think both are likely out as at-large teams because they’re resumes just don’t stack up to the other four teams. They compare to a Monmouth team from last year that didn’t make it in. I think they only get in as at large teams if past sentiment towards the little guys sways this year’s committee.
I only see these conferences as bubble-bursters:
AAC — Houston, UCF, UConn, or Memphis are probably good enough to make a run and then it’d be SMU, Cinci, and the auto bid.
A10 — Rhode Island and Richmond could win the auto bid and steal a bubble spot. I don’t think the Rams will get an at-large bid, but Dayton and VCU both look safe.
MoVal — Wichita St looks safe. Illinois St not so much. I think the Redbirds winning amounts to an at large steal. No one else is capable of beating both the Redbirds and the Shockers back to back and a simultaneous upset of both is very unlikely.
WCC — BYU might pull it off, but still unlikely to get through both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
ACC, Big12, Big10, Big East, SEC, and Pac12 are all multi-bid leagues and could thus produce a bubble-burster but a non at-large team winning the tourney champ is so very unlikely that I don’t really count them.
Once again, the non P5 schools are hard to place because of the lack of comparative schedules.
The bubble is taking better shape. I feel pretty good that Michigan on up are in safely barring unexpected losses. They’re are also fewer competitors for the spots below them. Illinois State, Rhode Island, and Mid Ten are interesting. Not great resumes, but are they as bad as a TCU or Wake Forest? Hard to say.
Games I’m keeping track of this week:
N Carolina at Virginia (one seed in play for heels)
W Virginia at Baylor (fighting for top 4 seed)
Miami at VirginiaTech (Va Tech could lock it up!)
Georgetown at Seton Hall (Pirates in mustn’t lose territory)
Indiana at Purdue (Hoosiers need big run, still may not be enough)
Florida St at Duke (battle for the 3 seed)
DePaul at Providence (Friars can’t lose this one)
Oklahoma St at IowaSt (battle for a 7 seed)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (win and ‘dores are in, lose and they’re out)
KansasSt. at TCU (both likely out, but neither can afford to lose)
Michigan at Northwestern (both in good shape, but cats are reeling and need home win)
Arkansas at Florida (win and hogs are in)
RhodeIsland at St. Joe’s (Rams can’t lose)
VCU at Dayton (winner feels good about at-large, loser will sweat a bit)
Michigan St at Illinois (Spartans look safe, but let’s not jeopardize it, eh?)
Louisville at Wake Forest (Deacons need the win to get in)
Marquette at Xavier (winner feels safe, loser sweats a bit)
Houston at Cincinnati (Cougars have a prayer with win)
Cal at Utah (Gonna be tough for the bears, but they can’t afford to lose)
Indiana at Ohio St (Hoos’ can’t lose)
Providence at Rutgers (Friars can’t lose)
Florida at Vanderbilt (golden opportunity for ‘dores this week, but one loss might finish them)
Georgia at Arkansas (hogs better win at home)
George Mason at VCU
Cal at Colorado (all mountains all week for bears)
Michigan St at Maryland (big game for seeding)
Seton Hall at Butler (winx2 this week and pirates are in)
Creighton at Marquette (winx2 and eagles are in)
TCU at Oklahoma (frogs can’t lose)
Ga Tech at Syracuse (Cuse can’t lose)
Kansas at Oklahoma St (‘boys are safe if they win this ‘un)
Davidson at Rhode Island
Colorado St at Nevada (Mtn West at stake)
S Carolina at Ole Miss (game better win to be safe)
UC Davis at UC Irvine (Battle in the big west)
Purdue at Northwestern (big week for cats)
Michigan at Nebraska (can’t lose twice this week and feel safe)
Saturday and Sunday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
Ohio Valley: Belmont: 1
Atl Sun: FGC: 1
Big South: UNC-Ash: 1
MoVal: Wichita St: 2: possible bubble burster if anyone other than Shockers (or Redbirds) win