March 10, 2017

Seeds:

3-10-17 Bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Butler 33 Xavier 51 Princeton
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Northwestern 52 Vermont
3 N Carolina 19 W Virginia 35 Wichita St 53 Akron
4 Gonzaga 20 Minnesota 36 Michigan 54 ETSU
5 UCLA 21 Creighton 37 Marquette 55 Fla Gulf Coast
6 Kentucky 22 Maryland 38 Seton Hall 56 Bucknell
7 Oregon 23 Iowa St 39 USC 57 Winthrop
8 Louisville 24 Miami 40 VCU 58 Cal Baker
9 Baylor 25 Wisconsin 41 Arkansas 59 Texas So
10 Arizona 26 St. Mary’s 42 Wake Forest 60 Iona
11 Duke 27 SMU 43 Vanderbilt 61 N Kentucky
12 Florida 28 Va Tech 44 Kansas St 62 North Dakota
13 Florida St 29 S Carolina 45 Mid Ten 63 S Dakota St
14 Purdue 30 Dayton 46 Providence 64 UC Irvine
15 Notre Dame 31 Oklahoma St 47 Syracuse 65 NC Central
16 Virginia 32 Michigan St 48 Nevada 66 Jacksonville St
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Mt St Mary’s
50 UT-Arlington 68 New Orleans

Notes:

  1. Bubble games yesterday:
    1. Kansas St won, I give them a 90% to be in, another W gives them lock status
    2. Xavier won, they are a lock now
    3. Michigan won wearing practice jerseys, they are a lock. Illinois is out with the L.
    4. Seton Hall beat Marquette possibly putting them on the 9 line, which might be worse than the 10 line. Both are locks to me.
    5. Cal won giving them hope yet.
    6. Iowa lost ending their hopes.
    7. Providence lost. I still think they’re safe.
    8. USC barely lost to UCLA. I think the Trojans are safe.
  2. Bubble games today:
    1. Kansas St vs W Virginia (W and ‘Cats are a lock)
    2. St Bonaventure vs Rhode Island (Rams can’t lose)
    3. Indiana vs Wisconsin (I think Hoosiers have outside chance at playing way in if they can get to B10 final)
    4. TCU vs Iowa St (I give TCU the same small chance as Indiana)
    5. Vandy at Florida (3 wins against the Gators should do it, and L leaves them anxious)
    6. Cal vs Oregon (W and Cal is in, L and I don’t think so)
  3. Providence and Syracuse have remarkably similar resumes:
    1. ProvSyra Comp
    2. I think they’ll be the last two in.
  4. Middle Tennessee might get in as an at large if they lose.
  5. Auto bids today:
    1. None

Bubble Comparison chart:

Bubble Comp 1

March 9, 2017

Seeds:

3-9-17 Bracket

Notes:

  1. Bucknell Bison are dancing.
  2. Syracuse and Wake both lost, USC, Xavier, and Cal all won. I still think Cal is out and the others are in. Illinois St and Rhode Island are, to me, the only ones out who can get in unless Cal, Illinois, or Iowa make big runs. I don’t think the Redbirds stack up well against any of the bubble teams. The Rams compare better, but could really use another win against Dayton. There are no bubble bursters left in my opinion other than the A10. The other conferences have no shot at AL bid or are too strong to allow a non AL bid team to win it.
  3. Bubble games today:
    1. Kansas St vs Baylor (W and in, L and we’ll see)
    2. Xavier vs Butler (Xavier is a lock to me)
    3. Illinois vs Michigan (Illini must keep winning)
    4. Seton Hall vs Marquette (I think they’re both locks)
    5. California vs Utah (Cal can’t lose this one)
    6. Indiana vs Iowa (Iowa can’t lose)
    7. Texas A&M vs Vandy (Vandy can’t lose)
    8. Creighton vs Providence (I think friars are lock, but W will do it for sure)
    9. USC vs UCLA (see note on Providence)
  4. Auto bids today: none

March 8, 2017

Seeds:

3-8-17 Bracket

Notes:

  1. Bubble games today:
    1. Miami vs. Syracuse (L puts ‘Cuse in jeopardy)
    2. Oregon St vs California (L and Cal is done, but I think they’re done anyway)
    3. Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech (W and Wake is in, L and not so sure)
    4. DePaul vs Xavier (I think Xavier is safe, but a L here will make it much more tenuous)
    5. Washington vs USC (See note on Xavier)
  2. Auto Bids today:
    1. Patriot: Lehigh vs Bucknell (Winner is likely a 14 seed)

March 7, 2017

Seeds:

3-7-17 Bracket

Notes:

  1. Down go the Coyotes. I think the Jackrabbits might take the Summit.
  2. ETSU, UNC-Wilm, and Iona all locked up bids
  3. Tuesday auto bids:
    1. Horizon: 4 seed vs. 10 seed.
    2. WCC: Both are dancing, who will get the auto?
    3. Northeast: Playing for a spot in Dayton and a chance to make hist…er…get destroyed by Kansas or Villanova.
    4. Summit: Probably going to be right on edge of 15/16 spot. There are a lot of baaaaad auto bids this year it seems.

March 6, 2017

Seeds:

3-6-17 Bracket.png

Rankings:

1 Kansas 17 Cincinnati 33 Dayton 51 Princeton
2 Villanova 18 Notre Dame 34 Wichita St 52 Vermont
3 Gonzaga 19 W Virginia 35 Marquette 53 Akron
4 N Carolina 20 Minnesota 36 Michigan 54 ETSU
5 UCLA 21 Creighton 37 Xavier 55 Fla Gulf Coast
6 Louisville 22 Maryland 38 USC 56 Bucknell
7 Kentucky 23 Miami 39 Seton Hall 57 Winthrop
8 Baylor 24 Wisconsin 40 VCU 58 Cal Baker
9 Oregon 25 Iowa St 41 Arkansas 59 S Dakota
10 Arizona 26 St. Mary’s 42 Providence 60 Texas So
11 Duke 27 S Carolina 43 Syracuse 61 Iona
12 Florida 28 Va Tech 44 Kansas St 62 N Kentucky
13 Florida St 29 SMU 45 Wake Forest 63 North Dakota
14 Purdue 30 Oklahoma St 46 Vanderbilt 64 UC Irvine
15 Virginia 31 Michigan St 47 Mid Ten 65 NC Central
16 Butler 32 Northwestern 48 Nevada 66 Jacksonville St
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Mt St Mary’s
50 UT-Arlington 68 New Orleans

Notes:

  1. Four teams are dancing: Wichita St, Jacksonville St, Winthrop, and Fla Gulf Coast. Jacksonville St is almost certainly a 16 seed and probably headed to Dayton. Shockers are probably in the 7-10 seed range, but their resume is just really thin. Their ratings are good, but they have just 2 top 100 wins.  Winthrop will be 14 or 15 seed and FGC a 13 or 14 seed.
  2. Belmont, Valpo, Oakland, UNC-Asheville, and Monmouth were all claimed by madness.
  3. Bubble winners: Syracuse, Kansas St, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
  4. Bubble losers: Illinois St, California, Illinois
  5. Redbirds have an uncomfortably long wait until Sunday. I don’t think they’ll get in. They’re 2-3 against the top 100 and have two losses to 100+. Their RPI is great, but I just don’t think that’ll be good enough this time.
  6. Kansas has the inside track on #1 overall seed, though if they lose and Nova wins out I think it will go to the defending champs. Kansas and Nova are 1 seed locks. I think Gonzaga is a safe 1 seed as well, with the fourth going to UNC, UCLA, Louisville, or Kentucky. Kansas will be in KC, guaranteed. Nova in New York guaranteed. Gonzaga will get San Jose, and UNC (probably) Memphis.
  7. Safely in: All teams Providence and above
  8. Sweating it out: Syracuse, Kansas St, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois, California, Illinois St, Rhode Island, Iowa

March 3, 2017

Seeds:

3-3-17-bracket

Notes:

  1. Louisville and N Carolina swapped seeds because Cards lost to Deacons.
  2. Wisconsin remains 4 seed, but dropped a couple spots in rankings
  3. Cal is out after that embarrassing loss. Wake is in.
  4. UNC-Asheville is out after the upset. I love the madness!

March 2, 2017

Seeds:

3-2-17-bracket

Notes:

  1. Still in contention: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, and Rhode Island.
  2. Illinois, Syracuse, Kansas St, and Wake Forest all have very similar resumes. They’re last few games will likely determine whether they make it in. Vanderbilt isn’t too far behind. I think that’s it among high major candidates. I think the rest are done.
  3. Along side them are Illinois State and Rhode Island. I think both are likely out as at-large teams because they’re resumes just don’t stack up to the other four teams. They compare to a Monmouth team from last year that didn’t make it in. I think they only get in as at large teams if past sentiment towards the little guys sways this year’s committee.
  4. I only see these conferences as bubble-bursters:
    1. AAC — Houston, UCF, UConn, or Memphis are probably good enough to make a run and then it’d be SMU, Cinci, and the auto bid.
    2. A10 — Rhode Island and Richmond could win the auto bid and steal a bubble spot. I don’t think the Rams will get an at-large bid, but Dayton and VCU both look safe.
    3. MoVal — Wichita St looks safe. Illinois St not so much. I think the Redbirds winning amounts to an at large steal. No one else is capable of beating both the Redbirds and the Shockers back to back and a simultaneous upset of both is very unlikely.
    4. WCC — BYU might pull it off, but still unlikely to get through both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
    5. ACC, Big12, Big10, Big East, SEC, and Pac12 are all multi-bid leagues and could thus produce a bubble-burster but a non at-large team winning the tourney champ is so very unlikely that I don’t really count them.

February 28, 2017

Seeds:

2-28-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Kansas 17 Cincinnati 33 Wichita St 51 UT-Arlington
2 Villanova 18 Creighton 34 Xavier 52 Nevada
3 Gonzaga 19 Notre Dame 35 Northwestern 53 Valpo
4 Louisville 20 W Virginia 36 VCU 54 Vermont
5 N Carolina 21 Minnesota 37 Dayton 55 Princeton
6 UCLA 22 Wisconsin 38 Michigan 56 Belmont
7 Kentucky 23 Maryland 39 Arkansas 57 UNC-Ash
8 Oregon 24 Miami 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Baylor 25 S Carolina 41 Providence 59 ETSU
10 Arizona 26 Iowa St 42 Marquette 60 Cal Baker
11 Florida 27 Oklahoma St 43 Seton Hall 61 Fla Gulf Coast
12 Florida St 28 Michigan St 44 Syracuse 62 S Dakota
13 Duke 29 Va Tech 45 Vanderbilt 63 Texas So
14 Purdue 30 USC 46 Illinois State 64 New Orleans
15 Virginia 31 St. Mary’s 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 Butler 32 SMU 48 Akron 66 UC Irvine
49 UNC-Wilm 67 N Dakota
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Once again, the non P5 schools are hard to place because of the lack of comparative schedules.
  2. The bubble is taking better shape. I feel pretty good that Michigan on up are in safely barring unexpected losses. They’re are also fewer competitors for the spots below them. Illinois State, Rhode Island, and Mid Ten are interesting. Not great resumes, but are they as bad as a TCU or Wake Forest? Hard to say.
  3. Games I’m keeping track of this week:
    1. N Carolina at Virginia (one seed in play for heels)
    2. W Virginia at Baylor (fighting for top 4 seed)
    3. Miami at Virginia Tech (Va Tech could lock it up!)
    4. Georgetown at Seton Hall (Pirates in mustn’t lose territory)
    5. Indiana at Purdue (Hoosiers need big run, still may not be enough)
    6. Florida St at Duke (battle for the 3 seed)
    7. DePaul at Providence (Friars can’t lose this one)
    8. Oklahoma St at Iowa St (battle for a 7 seed)
    9. Vanderbilt at Kentucky (win and ‘dores are in, lose and they’re out)
    10. Kansas St. at TCU (both likely out, but neither can afford to lose)
    11. Michigan at Northwestern (both in good shape, but cats are reeling and need home win)
    12. Arkansas at Florida (win and hogs are in)
    13. Rhode Island at St. Joe’s (Rams can’t lose)
    14. VCU at Dayton (winner feels good about at-large, loser will sweat a bit)
    15. Michigan St at Illinois (Spartans look safe, but let’s not jeopardize it, eh?)
    16. Louisville at Wake Forest (Deacons need the win to get in)
    17. Marquette at Xavier (winner feels safe, loser sweats a bit)
    18. Houston at Cincinnati (Cougars have a prayer with win)
    19. Cal at Utah (Gonna be tough for the bears, but they can’t afford to lose)
    20. Indiana at Ohio St (Hoos’ can’t lose)
    21. Providence at Rutgers (Friars can’t lose)
    22. Florida at Vanderbilt (golden opportunity for ‘dores this week, but one loss might finish them)
    23. Georgia at Arkansas (hogs better win at home)
    24. George Mason at VCU
    25. Cal at Colorado (all mountains all week for bears)
    26. Michigan St at Maryland (big game for seeding)
    27. Seton Hall at Butler (winx2 this week and pirates are in)
    28. Creighton at Marquette (winx2 and eagles are in)
    29. TCU at Oklahoma (frogs can’t lose)
    30. Ga Tech at Syracuse (Cuse can’t lose)
    31. Kansas at Oklahoma St (‘boys are safe if they win this ‘un)
    32. Davidson at Rhode Island
    33. Colorado St at Nevada (Mtn West at stake)
    34. S Carolina at Ole Miss (game better win to be safe)
    35. UC Davis at UC Irvine (Battle in the big west)
    36. Purdue at Northwestern (big week for cats)
    37. Michigan at Nebraska (can’t lose twice this week and feel safe)
  4. Saturday and Sunday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
    1. Ohio Valley: Belmont: 1
    2. Atl Sun: FGC: 1
    3. Big South: UNC-Ash: 1
    4. MoVal: Wichita St: 2: possible bubble burster if anyone other than Shockers (or Redbirds) win
  5. Monday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
    1. Colonial: UNC-Wilm: 1
    2. MAAC: Monmouth: 1
    3. Southern: ETSU: 1

February 21, 2017

Seeds:

2-21-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Creighton 33 Iowa St 51 UT-Arlington
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Oklahoma St 52 Nevada
3 Gonzaga 19 Notre Dame 35 Dayton 53 Valpo
4 Baylor 20 Wisconsin 36 Michigan St 54 Vermont
5 Louisville 21 Butler 37 Michigan 55 Princeton
6 N Carolina 22 Maryland 38 Kansas St 56 Belmont
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 TCU 57 UNC-Ash
8 Arizona 24 Minnesota 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Florida 25 Northwestern 41 Wichita St 59 Furman
10 Kentucky 26 USC 42 Arkansas 60 N Dakota St
11 Florida St 27 Va Tech 43 Tennessee 61 Cal-Baker
12 Duke 28 S Carolina 44 Marquette 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 UCLA 29 St. Mary’s 45 Seton Hall 63 Texas So
14 Purdue 30 SMU 46 Georgia Tech 64 New Orleans
15 Virginia 31 VCU 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 W Virginia 32 Miami 48 Akron 66 UC Irvine
49 UNC-Wilm 67 North Dakota
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Still astonished how weak the bubble teams are resume-wise.
  2. Conference finishes to watch
    1. ACC — I can still see Louisville or UNC jumping up to a 1 seed and Duke or Florida St jumping up to a 2 seed. Should be fun to watch. Still to come:
      1. Louisville vs. UNC
      2. Florida St vs. Duke
      3. Duke vs. UNC
    2. SEC — Florida and Kentucky are duking it out for the 3 seed and maybe 2 seed.
      1. Kentucky vs. Florida this Saturday
    3. Pac12 — Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA?
      1. UCLA vs. Arizona Saturday
    4. Mo Valley — Wichita St and Illinois St in Arch Madness finale.
    5. A10 — VCU vs. Dayton next Wednesday. Neither loser will feel too good about at large, though I think both will make it, unless they drop other games.
  3. Bubble games this week:
    1. Iowa St at Texas Tech
    2. Clemson at Virginia Tech
    3. NC State at Georgia Tech
    4. St. John’s at Marquette
    5. Vanderbilt at Tennessee (both are in must not lose situations)
    6. Michigan at Rutgers
    7. Duke at Syracuse (cuse need this one badly)
    8. TCU at Kansas (win and frogs are in)
    9. Xavier at Seton Hall
    10. Pittsburgh at Wake Forest
    11. Texas A&M at Arkansas
    12. Oregon at Cal (win and Bears are in)
    13. Oklahoma St at Kansas St (‘cats can’t lost this one)
    14. Nebraska at Michigan St
    15. Florida St at Clemson (tigers need this one badly)
    16. UNC at Pittsburgh (Panthers need this one badly)
    17. Tennessee at South Carolina
    18. West Virginia at TCU (big week for the frogs)
    19. Texas Tech at Oklahoma St
    20. Miss St at Vandy
    21. Purdue at Michigan
    22. Baylor at Iowa St (win puts clones in)
    23. Kansas St at Oklahoma (another must win for ‘cats)
    24. Arkansas at Auburn
    25. Syracuse at Louisville (two wins for cuse this week and they’re in)
    26. Wisconsin at Michigan St (win and Sparty is in)
    27. Georgia Tech at Notre Dame