This Ain't Bracket Science

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Virginia	17	Seton Hall	33	Texas A&M	51	E Tenn St
2	Villanova	18	Michigan	34	Florida	52	N Kentucky
3	Purdue	19	Miami	35	Washington	53	New Mex St
4	Xavier	20	Kentucky	36	Arizona St	54	Murray St
5	Auburn	21	Creighton	37	Providence	55	South Dakota
6	Clemson	22	St. Mary’s	38	Houston	56	Buffalo
7	Duke	23	W Virginia	39	NC State	57	Towson
8	Michigan St	24	Butler	40	Arkansas	58	Bucknell
9	Texas Tech	25	Texas	41	Virginia Tech	59	Iona
10	Cincinnati	26	Gonzaga	42	Missouri	60	Princeton
11	Kansas	27	Arizona	43	Alabama	61	Montana
12	Tennessee	28	Florida St	44	Kansas St	62	FGC
13	Oklahoma	29	TCU	45	UCLA	63	SF Austin
14	UNC	30	Nevada	46	Marquette	64	Liberty
15	Ohio State	31	Wichita St	47	Mid Tenn St	65	UCSB
16	Rhode Isl	32	Louisville	48	Louisiana	66	Wagner
				49	Vermont	67	Texas So
				50	Loyola-Chi	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. In: UCLA, Missouri, Washington, Liberty, Montana
2. Out: USC, Nebraska, Syracuse, Wagner, Portland St
3. Rising: Washington, Tennessee, Miami, Butler, Texas, Texas A&M, Nevada, Providence, Missouri
4. Falling: Kansas, W. Virginia, Arizona, Louisville, Florida, Arkansas, Kansas St
5. Week for bubble teams:
   1. Providence: Gtown, DePaul; need to win both
   2. Houston: SMU, Tulane: need to win both, SMU would be decent win
   3. NC State: @VaTech, UNC; split would be great for resume, 2Ls not end of world
   4. Arkansas: SoCar, Vandy; really need to win both at home
   5. Va Tech: NCSt, @Virginia; given unlikely W on road, need to win at home
   6. Missouri: @Miss, MissSt; need to win both
   7. Alabama: @MissSt, Tenn, split would be good, 2 Ws a boon
   8. Kansas St: @Texas, TexTech; split would be great, really need a road win
   9. UCLA: @Arizona, @AzSt; need to split here to stay in it
   10. Marquette: @SetonHall, @St. Johns; really need both wins to stem the tide
   11. USC: @AzSt; @Arizona; need to split here to stay in it
   12. Nebraska: @Minn, Rutgers; need to win both, neither will boost resume much
   13. Syracuse: @Louis, Wake; need to win at home, W on road would be big
   14. Boise St: @NewMex; @UtahSt; need to win both, Nevada at home is only remaining resume booster
   15. Maryland: @PennSt; NW; need to win both, neither will boost resume much
   16. SMU: @Houston, Cincy; split would be good, W in both would get them in
   17. Georgia: @Vandy, Auburn; need to win both to stay in bubble talk
   18. Miss St: Ala, @Mizzou; need to win both to stay in bubble talk

 

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Virginia	17	Kentucky	33	Kansas St	51	E Tenn St
2	Villanova	18	Seton Hall	34	Arkansas	52	N Kentucky
3	Purdue	19	Rhode Island	35	Nevada	53	Loyola-Chi
4	Duke	20	Arizona	36	Arizona St	54	Murray St
5	Xavier	21	Michigan	37	Marquette	55	South Dakota
6	Auburn	22	Creighton	38	Houston	56	Buffalo
7	Kansas	23	Florida	39	Texas A&M	57	Towson
8	Michigan St	24	Louisville	40	NC State	58	Bucknell
9	Clemson	25	St. Mary’s	41	Virginia Tech	59	Iona
10	Oklahoma	26	Florida St	42	Nebraska	60	Princeton
11	Cincinnati	27	Miami	43	Syracuse	61	Portland St
12	Tennessee	28	Wichita St	44	Alabama	62	FGC
13	UNC	29	Gonzaga	45	Providence	63	SF Austin
14	Texas Tech	30	Texas	46	USC	64	Winthrop
15	Ohio St	31	Butler	47	Mid Tenn St	65	UCSB
16	W Virginia	32	TCU	48	Louisiana	66	Texas So
				49	New Mex St	67	Wagner
				50	Vermont	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. In: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wagner
2. Out: Georgia, Baylor, Missouri, St. Francis PA
3. Rising: Michigan St, Kentucky, Rhode Island, Florida St, Kansas St, Arkansas
4. Falling: UNC, Florida, TCU, Arizona St, Maryland
5. Big Big 12 Games this week:
   1. Kansas at Kansas St
   2. Baylor at Oklahoma
   3. Texas at Texas Tech
   4. Texas Tech at TCU
   5. Oklahoma at Texas
   6. Kansas St at West Va
6. Big Big Ten Games this week:
   1. Penn St at Michigan St
   2. Maryland at Purdue
7. Big SEC games this week:
   1. Florida at Georgia
   2. Arkansas at Texas A&M
   3. Missouri at Alabama
   4. Miss St at South Carolina
   5. LSU at Tennessee
   6. Alabama at Florida
   7. Arkansas at LSU
   8. Georgia at Miss St
   9. Kentucky at Missouri
   10. South Carolina at Texas A&M
   11. Do or die week for South Carolina and Missouri
8. Big ACC games this week:
   1. Notre Dame at Duke
   2. UNC at Clemson
   3. Va Tech at Boston College
   4. Louisville at Virginia
   5. Florida St at Louisville
   6. Notre Dame at NC State
   7. Virginia at Syracuse
   8. Miami at Va Tech
9. Big Pac 12 games this week:
   1. Arizona St at Washington
   2. Arizona at Washington
   3. USC at UCLA
   4. Huskies need both
10. Big Big East games this week:
    1. Butler at Marquette
    2. Providence at Seton Hall
    3. Creighton at Villanova
    4. Providence at Marquette
    5. Seton Hall at Villanova
11. Others:
    1. Houston at Cincinnati
    2. Rhode Island at VCU

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Texas Tech	33	Texas	51	E Tenn St
2	Virginia	18	Michigan	34	Florida St	52	New Mex St
3	Purdue	19	Louisville	35	Texas A&M	53	Murray St
4	Duke	20	Seton Hall	36	Marquette	54	South Dakota
5	UNC	21	Arizona	37	Houston	55	Loyola-Chi
6	Xavier	22	Creighton	38	Kansas St	56	Buffalo
7	Kansas	23	Rhode Island	39	Maryland	57	Towson
8	W Virginia	24	Miami	40	Arkansas	58	Bucknell
9	Clemson	25	Wichita St	41	Georgia	59	Iona
10	Ohio St	26	St. Mary’s	42	Providence	60	Princeton
11	Auburn	27	TCU	43	Alabama	61	SF Austin
12	Oklahoma	28	Gonzaga	44	Nebraska	62	FGC
13	Cincinnati	29	Nevada	45	Baylor	63	Portland St
14	Tennessee	30	Arizona St	46	Missouri	64	Winthrop
15	Florida	31	Butler	47	Mid Tenn St	65	UCSB
16	Michigan St	32	Kentucky	48	Louisiana	66	Texas So
				49	N Kentucky	67	St Francis PA
				50	Vermont	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. In: Kansas St, Baylor, Providence, Nebraska, Missouri, Winthrop, Loyola-Chi
2. Out: NC State, Miss St, Notre Dame, Syracuse, LSU, Liberty, Missouri St
3. Rising: UNC, Xavier, Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Rhode Island, St. Mary’s, Texas, Kansas St
4. Falling: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Arkansas
5. WCC looks much more likely to get 2 bids as Gaels win in Spokane
6. CUSA has several good teams, but still looks like likely one bid league
7. You could probably say the same thing for the Mtn West
8. I’d feel pretty good betting the champion will come from current top 5 teams.
9. Bubble: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boise St, Oklahoma St, Boston College, BYU, Nebraska, NC State, UCLA, USC, Washington, LSU, South Carolina
10. Best chance to improve resume: Marquette, South Carolina
11. Big games this week and weekend:
    1. UNC at Va Tech — probably puts them back in
       
    2. Maryland at Indiana — terps might be out now
       
    3. Iowa St at Texas — Texas looking solid
    4. Nebraska at Ohio St — missed opportunity for huskers
    5. West Virginia at TCU — frogs needed that. big12 is KU’s again.
    6. Kansas St at Baylor — K-St on great run
    7. Providence at Villanova — how much will losing Booth hurt?
    8. Arkansas at Georgia — hogs holding steady in 10 seed range
    9. Clemson at Virginia — what a beatdown, could this be the year for the final 4?
    10. Kansas at Oklahoma — Still not sure Kansas will lose the conference
    11. Oklahoma St at Texas Tech — pokes not an easy out
    12. Texas A&M at LSU — both needed it, tigers got it
    13. Miss St at Kentucky — Miss St in free fall
    14. Marquette at Xavier — Xavier in range of 1 seed, will need to topple nova
    15. South Carolina at Florida — big win for gamecocks, but more is needed
    16. Boston College at Syracuse — Cuse needed that
    17. Louisville at Miami — missed opportunity for Cards
    18. Auburn at Missouri — Missouri in free fall; both free fallers meet Saturday
    19. Michigan at Purdue — balanced boilermakers poised for deep run
    20. BYU at St. Mary’s — WCC looks like 2 bid league
        
    21. Oakland at N Kentucky — Auto bid probably coming from one of these two
    22. NC St at UNC — Pack back in view
    23. Texas Tech at South Carolina — missed opportunity for cocks
    24. Baylor at Florida — Gators look like SEC favorite
    25. Virginia at Duke — Cavs are a clear #1 seed and maybe #1 overall
    26. Georgia at Kansas St — Do or die for both and Cats got it done
    27. Oklahoma at Alabama — Bama needed that one
    28. Tennessee at Iowa St — Vols looking good
    29. Miami at Florida St — Both look solidly in
    30. Texas A&M at Kansas — Aggies reeling
    31. LSU at Auburn — Tigers rolling
    32. Oklahoma St at Arkansas — Arkansas still in it
    33. Kentucky at West Virginia — should we expect anything different wva?
    34. Virginia Tech at Notre Dame — Irish may not make it without bonzi
    35. Missouri at Miss St — dogs stopped the bleeding for now
    36. Villanova at Marquette — Nova survives
    37. Michigan St at Maryland — Sparty’s got problems on and off the court

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Michigan St	33	Marquette	51	Louisiana
2	Virginia	18	Kentucky	34	LSU	52	Vermont
3	Oklahoma	19	Ohio St	35	Florida St	53	Murray St
4	Purdue	20	Arizona St	36	Texas A&M	54	Missouri St
5	Duke	21	Cincinnati	37	Houston	55	South Dakota
6	Texas Tech	22	Gonzaga	38	Texas	56	Towson
7	Kansas	23	TCU	39	Maryland	57	Iona
8	W. Virginia	24	Florida	40	Georgia	58	Bucknell
9	UNC	25	Creighton	41	Syracuse	59	Princeton
10	Clemson	26	Arizona	42	St. Mary’s	60	Buffalo
11	Auburn	27	Rhode Island	43	Notre Dame	61	SF Austin
12	Xavier	28	Nevada	44	Miss St	62	FGC
13	Wichita St	29	Arkansas	45	NC State	63	Portland St
14	Seton Hall	30	Louisville	46	Alabama	64	Liberty
15	Tennessee	31	Miami	47	Mid Tenn St	65	UCSB
16	Michigan	32	Butler	48	New Mex St	66	Texas So
				49	N Kentucky	67	St Francis PA
				50	E Tenn St	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. In: Alabama, NC State, St. Mary’s, LSU, Louisville
2. Out: Missouri, Minnesota, Washington, St. Bona, UCLA
3. Bubble: Boise St, Baylor, Boston College, Minnesota, Missouri, St. Bona, UCLA
4. Differences with Bracketmatrix.com
   1. Missouri has no top 50 wins
   2. UCLA is right there with Alabama and NC State
   3. Boise St has no top 50 wins
   4. Western Kentucky has too many bad losses
5. Games of note this week:
   1. Louisville at Notre Dame — Big win for Cards. Irish need to hang on.
   2. Georgia at LSU — Big win for Dogs. SEC picture remains cloudy.
   3. Vanderbilt at Miss St — Avoiding those upsets is big.
   4. Oklahoma at Kansas St — Cats need a few more of those to get in.
   5. Kentucky at South Carolina — Gamecocks still have a chance to get in.
   6. SMU at Wich St
   7. Auburn at Alabama
   8. Arkansas at Florida
   9. Texas Tech at Texas
   10. Seton Hall at Creighton
   11. Tennessee at Missouri
   12. Ohio St at Northwestern
   13. Minnesota at Maryland
   14. Michigan at Nebraska
   15. Indiana at Michigan St

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Kentucky	33	Maryland	51	Louisiana
2	W Virginia	18	Wichita St	34	Notre Dame	52	Vermont
3	Virginia	19	Florida St	35	Syracuse	53	E Tenn St
4	Oklahoma	20	Gonzaga	36	Ohio St	54	Murray St
5	Texas Tech	21	Creighton	37	Georgia	55	Iona
6	Duke	22	Florida	38	Texas	56	Towson
7	Arizona St	23	Tennessee	39	Miss St	57	New Mex St
8	Xavier	24	Arkansas	40	UCLA	58	Portland St
9	Clemson	25	Miami	41	Rhode Island	59	Liberty
10	Purdue	26	Nevada	42	St. Bona	60	Bucknell
11	Seton Hall	27	Butler	43	Marquette	61	Penn
12	Auburn	28	Arizona	44	Missouri	62	Lipscomb
13	Michigan St	29	Cincinnati	45	Minnesota	63	Buffalo
14	UNC	30	Texas A&M	46	Washington	64	SF Austin
15	Kansas	31	Michigan	47	Mid Ten St	65	UCSB
16	TCU	32	Houston	48	South Dakota	66	Texas So
				49	N Kentucky	67	St Francis PA
				50	Missouri St	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. In: Washington, Ohio St
2. Out: Utah, Boise St
3. Last weekend’s big games:
   1. Houston at Wich St — Houston slipping from at-large…
   2. Maryland at Mich St
   3. Arizona at Utah –Utah now out
   4. N. Iowa at Missouri St — Bears up
   5. UNC at Virginia — that defense
   6. Florida at Missouri — oof, Tigers
   7. Nebraska at Purdue — no dice for ‘skers
   8. Notre Dame at Syracuse –big win without Bonzi
   9. Wake Forest at Boston College — big for eagles
      
   10. Arkansas at Auburn — SEC goes through Auburn?
   11. Oklahoma at West Virginia — Looks like Mountaineers might
   12. Kansas at TCU — not frogs’ time yet
   13. Missouri St at Illinois St — Bears down
   14. Mich St at Ohio St — Big score for Bucky
   15. SMU at Cinci — Stangs on outside looking in
   16. Arizona St at Utah — Utah now out
4. This week’s big games:
   1. Texas Tech at Okla — Affirms my seeding of both teams
   2. Texas A&M at Kentucky — Aggies reeling
      
   3. South Carolina at Alabama — Bama hanging on, Gamecocks likely done
   4. Butler at Creighton — Jays rollin
   5. Purdue at Michigan — Purdue has a shot at a #1 seed
   6. Seton Hall at Marquette — Eagles dust the Pirates
   7. Virginia Tech at Wake Forest — Hokies arrow up
   8. Mississippi St at Florida — Bulldogs could be in trouble
   9. Xavier at Villanova — Nova looks like lock for #1 seed
   10. Oklahoma St at Kansas St — Pokes likely out; Jury still out on ‘cats
   11. TCU at Texas — What a game! Longhorns needed that one
   12. Louisville at Florida St — Big win for Cards. First top 100 victory.
   13. Georgia at Missouri — Nice win for Tigers
   14. Oregon at Arizona St — Sun devils falling back to earth. Ducks making a run?
   15. Clemson at NC State — Gives wolfpack some life, but still unlikely.
   16. Maryland at Ohio St — Buckeye stock rising. Can they do it on the road?
   17. Tulsa at Houston — Cougars needed that in big way
   18. Utah at UCLA — Big bubble win for Bruins.
   19. Marquette vs. Butler — I’m confident both will get in
   20. Nebraska at Penn St  — Might have been an elimination game for huskers
5. Big games this weekend:
   1. Marquette vs. Butler
   2. Kansas St. at Kansas
   3. Michigan at Michigan St
   4. Purdue at Minnesota
   5. South Carolina at Georgia
   6. TCU at Oklahoma
   7. Syracuse at Florida St
   8. Creighton at Xavier
   9. West Virginia at Texas Tech
   10. Auburn at Miss St
   11. Va Tech at Lousiville
   12. Texas at Oklahoma St
   13. UNC at Notre Dame
   14. Texas A&M at Tennessee
   15. Missouri at Arkansas
   16. Alabama at LSU
   17. Colorado at UCLA
   18. NC State at Virginia
   19. Utah at USC

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Duke	17	Kentucky	33	Boise St	51	Louisiana
2	Arizona St	18	Butler	34	Florida	52	Vermont
3	Villanova	19	Wichita St	35	Cincinnati	53	E Tenn St
4	Oklahoma	20	Texas A&M	36	UCLA	54	Belmont
5	Xavier	21	Gonzaga	37	Rhode Island	55	Iona
6	Virginia	22	Arizona	38	Maryland	56	Towson
7	W. Virginia	23	Kansas	39	Syracuse	57	New Mex St
8	TCU	24	Nevada	40	Georgia	58	Portland St
9	Texas Tech	25	Tennessee	41	St. Bona	59	Liberty
10	Michigan St	26	Texas	42	Marquette	60	Bucknell
11	Purdue	27	Arkansas	43	Missouri	61	Penn
12	UNC	28	Creighton	44	Minnesota	62	Lipscomb
13	Auburn	29	Mississippi St	45	Utah	63	Buffalo
14	Seton Hall	30	Miami	46	Notre Dame	64	SF Austin
15	Clemson	31	Michigan	47	Mid Ten St	65	UCSB
16	Florida St	32	Houston	48	South Dakota	66	Texas So
				49	N Kentucky	67	Wagner
				50	Missouri St	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. Reminder: I do my bracket as if season ended today and committee were selecting the teams. I expect a lot of changes as more games are played.
2. SEC has nine teams right now. I expect that to go down.
3. Bubble teams: Washington, Ohio St, BYU, St. Mary’s, SMU, Baylor, Kansas St
4. Teams with weak resumes who I expect will come back in to the picture: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Penn St, USC, Alabama
5. Teams with decent resumes who I expect will fall out of picture: Mississippi St, Georgia, Washington
6. Games of note this weekend:
   1. Houston at Wich St (Big game for AAC)
   2. Maryland at Mich St (Would be great win for Terps and chance to improve SOR for Sparty)
   3. Arizona at Utah (Big data point for both)
   4. N. Iowa at Missouri St (Big for MVC, which looks like one bid league this year)
   5. UNC at Virginia (Game of the week)
   6. Florida at Missouri (Smells like bubble game data point)
   7. Nebraska at Purdue (Huskers need top 50 win and this would be big one)
   8. Notre Dame at Syracuse (Bubble game)
   9. Wake Forest at Boston College (Bubble game)
   10. Arkansas at Auburn (resume-builder)
   11. Oklahoma at West Virginia (Can either dethrone Kansas?)
   12. Kansas at TCU (Are Frogs for real? Is Kansas?)
   13. Missouri St at Illinois St (two big games in a row for bears)
   14. Mich St at Ohio St (Big opportunity for Bucky)
   15. SMU at Cinci (Big opportunity for Stangs)
   16. Arizona St at Utah (Big opportunity for Utes)

Seeds:

Bracket: East & South on one side and Midwest & West on other

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Purdue	33	Xavier	51	Vermont
2	Kansas	18	Cincinnati	34	S Carolina	52	ETSU
3	Gonzaga	19	W Virginia	35	Dayton	53	Bucknell
4	Kentucky	20	Minnesota	36	Arkansas	54	Fla Gulf Coast
5	Arizona	21	Creighton	37	VCU	55	New Mexico St
6	Duke	22	Iowa St	38	Marquette	56	Winthrop
7	N Carolina	23	Wisconsin	39	Seton Hall	57	Iona
8	UCLA	24	Maryland	40	Vanderbilt	58	N Kentucky
9	Baylor	25	Michigan	41	Michigan St	59	Texas So
10	Louisville	26	St. Mary’s	42	Wake Forest	60	Kent St
11	Oregon	27	SMU	43	Kansas St	61	North Dakota
12	Florida	28	Miami	44	Providence	62	Troy
13	Florida St	29	Va Tech	45	Rhode Island	63	UC Davis
14	Notre Dame	30	Oklahoma St	46	USC	64	S Dakota St
15	Virginia	31	Northwestern	47	Mid Ten	65	NC Central
16	Butler	32	Wichita St	48	Nevada	66	Jacksonville St
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Mt St Mary’s
				50	Princeton	68	New Orleans

Notes:

1. Villanova is a lock for #1 overall. Kansas is also a lock for a 1 seed. I think Gonzaga is a lock as well. I think the final slot goes to Kentucky with Arizona, Duke, and N Carolina all right there. I think Arizona and Gonzaga should get paired out west and Duke and Kentucky in the south. N Carolina in the Midwest with Kansas and UCLA in the east with Villanova. I think all of those teams except Gonzaga have a great chance at winning it all.
2. Tough calls:
   1. Final 1 seed between Kentucky, Duke, N Carolina, and Arizona.
   2. 2 seed: UCLA, Oregon, Baylor, or Louisville. I picked UCLA because of their top road wins and lack of bad losses.
   3. 3 seed: Florida or Florida St? Seminoles beat Gators and have more top 50 wins, but Gators have cleaner resume below top 50. I’m giving Florida a slight edge.
   4. Where to put Butler? Top wins are among the best in nation, but they also have some ugly losses. They’re definitely on the 4-5 cut line.
   5. Where to put Wichita St? Traditional resume says 8-9 seed at best. Predictive ratings say 4-5 seed at worst. Does committee go down the middle with 6 or 7? I think they’ll be 8 or 9 seed. I lean toward 9, but to play for better score I’m going to flop them and Xavier.
   6. Where will they put the last four in? I think they should all fall on the 11 seed line. If Rhode Island and Mid Ten end up on the 11 line, then the last two AL teams will be on the 12 line.
   7. USC or Syracuse? I think it’s pretty clear this is the decision to make for last in. USC has the RPI and Syracuse has the top 50 wins. Illinois St has good RPI but no top 100 wins other than Wich St and New Mexico. I’m giving the nod to USC, because of Syracuse’s bad RPI and bad losses. Orange getting in would be historic.
   8. Getting all the AQ teams seeds right isn’t always easy but can really add to the point total. I’m mostly concerned about the crowded 16 seed line. Which of the seven teams (the six I have + Troy) get the 15?

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Butler	33	Xavier	51	Princeton
2	Kansas	18	Cincinnati	34	Northwestern	52	Vermont
3	N Carolina	19	W Virginia	35	Wichita St	53	Akron
4	Gonzaga	20	Minnesota	36	Michigan	54	ETSU
5	UCLA	21	Creighton	37	Marquette	55	Fla Gulf Coast
6	Kentucky	22	Maryland	38	Seton Hall	56	Bucknell
7	Oregon	23	Iowa St	39	USC	57	Winthrop
8	Louisville	24	Miami	40	VCU	58	Cal Baker
9	Baylor	25	Wisconsin	41	Arkansas	59	Texas So
10	Arizona	26	St. Mary’s	42	Wake Forest	60	Iona
11	Duke	27	SMU	43	Vanderbilt	61	N Kentucky
12	Florida	28	Va Tech	44	Kansas St	62	North Dakota
13	Florida St	29	S Carolina	45	Mid Ten	63	S Dakota St
14	Purdue	30	Dayton	46	Providence	64	UC Irvine
15	Notre Dame	31	Oklahoma St	47	Syracuse	65	NC Central
16	Virginia	32	Michigan St	48	Nevada	66	Jacksonville St
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Mt St Mary’s
				50	UT-Arlington	68	New Orleans

Notes:

1. Bubble games yesterday:
   1. Kansas St won, I give them a 90% to be in, another W gives them lock status
   2. Xavier won, they are a lock now
   3. Michigan won wearing practice jerseys, they are a lock. Illinois is out with the L.
   4. Seton Hall beat Marquette possibly putting them on the 9 line, which might be worse than the 10 line. Both are locks to me.
   5. Cal won giving them hope yet.
   6. Iowa lost ending their hopes.
   7. Providence lost. I still think they’re safe.
   8. USC barely lost to UCLA. I think the Trojans are safe.
2. Bubble games today:
   1. Kansas St vs W Virginia (W and ‘Cats are a lock)
   2. St Bonaventure vs Rhode Island (Rams can’t lose)
   3. Indiana vs Wisconsin (I think Hoosiers have outside chance at playing way in if they can get to B10 final)
   4. TCU vs Iowa St (I give TCU the same small chance as Indiana)
   5. Vandy at Florida (3 wins against the Gators should do it, and L leaves them anxious)
   6. Cal vs Oregon (W and Cal is in, L and I don’t think so)
3. Providence and Syracuse have remarkably similar resumes:
   1. 
   2. I think they’ll be the last two in.
4. Middle Tennessee might get in as an at large if they lose.
5. Auto bids today:
   1. None

Bubble Comparison chart:

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Bucknell Bison are dancing.
2. Syracuse and Wake both lost, USC, Xavier, and Cal all won. I still think Cal is out and the others are in. Illinois St and Rhode Island are, to me, the only ones out who can get in unless Cal, Illinois, or Iowa make big runs. I don’t think the Redbirds stack up well against any of the bubble teams. The Rams compare better, but could really use another win against Dayton. There are no bubble bursters left in my opinion other than the A10. The other conferences have no shot at AL bid or are too strong to allow a non AL bid team to win it.
3. Bubble games today:
   1. Kansas St vs Baylor (W and in, L and we’ll see)
   2. Xavier vs Butler (Xavier is a lock to me)
   3. Illinois vs Michigan (Illini must keep winning)
   4. Seton Hall vs Marquette (I think they’re both locks)
   5. California vs Utah (Cal can’t lose this one)
   6. Indiana vs Iowa (Iowa can’t lose)
   7. Texas A&M vs Vandy (Vandy can’t lose)
   8. Creighton vs Providence (I think friars are lock, but W will do it for sure)
   9. USC vs UCLA (see note on Providence)
4. Auto bids today: none