Final Bracket

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 17

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Texas Tech 33 Kansas St 51 Buffalo
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 UNC Greensboro
3 Kansas 19 Kentucky 35 Providence 53 Marshall
4 Xavier 20 Wichita St 36 Texas 54 Charleston
5 UNC 21 Houston 37 Alabama 55 Montana
6 Duke 22 Florida 38 Oklahoma 56 Bucknell
7 Purdue 23 Arkansas 39 Florida St 57 SF Austin
8 Cincinnati 24 TCU 40 NC State 58 Georgia St
9 Mich St 25 Texas A&M 41 UCLA 59 Penn
10 Tennessee 26 Miami 42 St. Bona 60 Wright St
11 Michigan 27 Seton Hall 43 St. Mary’s 61 Iona
12 Auburn 28 Va Tech 44 USC 62 Lipscomb
13 W Virginia 29 Butler 45 Loyola Chi 63 CS Fullerton
14 Clemson 30 Creighton 46 Davidson 64 UMBC
15 Gonzaga 31 Rh Island 47 San Diego St 65 Radford
16 Arizona 32 Nevada 48 New Mex St 66 NC Central
49 S Dakota St 67 Texas So
50 Murray St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Bracket:

2018 Bracket Final

March 9, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 16

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Rh Island 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Texas 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Oklahoma 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 Arizona 36 Missouri 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 TCU 37 Alabama 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Florida St 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 NC State 57 Bucknell
8 Cincinnati 24 Texas A&M 40 St. Bona 58 Montana
9 Mich St 25 Miami 41 St. Mary’s 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Nevada 42 UCLA 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Seton Hall 43 Providence 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Arkansas 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Va Tech 45 Louisville 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Butler 46 Baylor 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Creighton 47 W Kentucky 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Kansas St 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
      2. Win over UNC clinches it, I think.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then. Doke injury shouldn’t really matter here unless something new comes out.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them. Look like a lock for a 2 seed.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
      2. Need to beat Duke or looking at 2 seed.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Alabama (18-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 10 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg = 44
      4. Predictive rating = 52
      5. Sims 4 9s, 11, 5 outs
    2. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse.
      3. Resume avg = 28
      4. Predictive avg = 58
      5. Sims = 4, 6, 3 7s, 3 8s, 2 9s
    3. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg = 48
      4. Predictive avg =32.3
      5. Sims = 8, 3 10s, 3 11s, 3 12s
    4. UCLA (21-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 38
      4. Predictive avg = 46.3
      5. Sims = 6, 2 7s, 2 8s, 3 9s, 2 11s
    5. Providence (20-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg = 37
      4. Predictive avg = 64.3
      5. Sims = 8, 2 9s, 10, 3 11s, 2 12s, out
    6. USC (22-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 43
      4. Predictive avg = 42.7
      5. Sims = 7, 8, 10, 5 11s, 12, out
    7. Louisville (20-13)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg = 44
      4. Predictive avg = 29.3
      5. Sims = 9, 10, 4 11s, 12, 3 outs
    8. Baylor (17-14)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (12) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg = 55
      4. Predictive avg = 33.3
      5. Sims = 11, 12, 8 outs
    9. Syracuse (20-13)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg = 46
      4. Predictive avg = 51.3
      5. Sims = 5 10s, 5 outs
    10. Marquette (19-13)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 49
      4. Predictive avg = 49
      5. Sims = 2 9s, 2 10s, 6 outs
    11. Arizona St (20-11)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 58.
      4. Predictive avg = 46.
      5. Sims = 2 10s, 8 outs
    12. Oklahoma St (18-14)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg = 60
      4. Predictive avg = 52.3
      5. Sims = 11, 9 outs
    13. Notre Dame (19-14)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg = 61
      4. Predictive avg = 30.3
      5. Sims = 11, 12, 8 outs
    14. Mid Tenn St (23-7)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg = 43
      4. Predictive avg = 54
      5. Sims = 2 10s, 11, 4 outs
    15. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    16. If no Auto-Bid:
    17. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 28
      4. Predictive avg = 43
      5. Sims = 8, 9, 10, 11, 4 12s, out
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

March 8, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 15

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Rh Island 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 NC State 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Texas 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Baylor 57 Bucknell
8 Mich St 24 Texas A&M 40 Louisville 58 Montana
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Arizona St 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 St. Mary’s 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 UCLA 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Nevada 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Arkansas 45 St. Bona 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Oklahoma 46 Oklahoma St 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Seton Hall 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Kansas St (21-10)
      1. Best wins aren’t great, but sweeps against Baylor and Texas help a lot. Still have 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses
      3. RPI is awful at 62, but KPI and SOR are 41 and 26. Avg of 43 is solid. Now 41.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid. Now 41.7.
      5. Should be in even with loss to TCU. RPI is only weakness. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 3 8s, 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 outs
    2. Arizona St (20-10)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 51 is not good. Now 55.3.
      4. Predictive avg of 42.7 is solid. Now 46.3.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Colorado could have them sweating. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 10s, 8 outs
      7. Loss to Colorado hurts bad. Oklahoma St winning doesn’t help. I think weakness elsewhere keeps them in, but possibly looking at a trip to Dayton.
    3. Baylor (17-13)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (10) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg of 52 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 32.3 is great.
      5. Should be in, even with loss to W. Virginia. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 11s, 1 12, 6 outs
    4. Texas (18-13)
      1. Top wins not great, but not bad. Bubble wins over Butler and Bama. 8 quad 1-2 wins is decent.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid. Up to 39 after ISU.
      4. Predictive avg of 36.7 is even better.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Iowa St won’t help. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 3 9s, 3 10s, 1 12, 2 outs
      7. Win over Iowa St clinches it. This team should be in.
    5. Oklahoma St (18-13)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins. More than the 3 above them right now.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg of 61.7 which is horrid but mostly pulled down by awful RPI of 88. Up to 60.3 with win over OU.
      4. Predictive avg of 53.7, which is also not good. Up to 51.3 with win over OU.
      5. What do you do with this team? Win-loss profile looks just as good as anyone else on bubble, but ratings are awful. Eight wins in quad 4 really hurting them, I think.
      6. Need to win vs. Oklahoma. Three vs. Kansas should lock them in. I like them better than most other bracketologists, but I don’t know what committee will do here. The new team sheets should help tremendously, but no team with an RPI in the 80s has ever gotten in.
      7. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
      8. Helped tremendously by Syracuse loss. Would’ve been helped even more had Marquette lost. They could really use a Marquette, Providence, and St. Bona loss Thursday/Friday. Win over KU and in, though.
    6. Louisville (20-12)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 48 not good. Now 44.7 after win over FSU.
      4. Predictive avg of 31 is great. 28.3 after FSU.
      5. Got the win vs. FlaSt. Most troubling sign is lack of quad 1-2 wins. Win vs. UVa is clincher, but won’t be easy even though they basically were right there just last week. I seem to be one of few who think they’re pretty safe.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 1 10, 4 11s, 1 12, 3 outs
      7. Not sure how this team doesn’t get in. Committee would have to decide lack of top wins is the reason.
    7. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities. 24 wins against RPI 120+.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 50 is not good. Ol’ RPI makes there case look better than it is.
      4. Predictive avg of 34 is very good, though. Basically the opposite of St. Bona.
      5. Loss to BYU may have been nail, but name, ranking, and predictive ratings may carry the day. I think they’re safely in, but may be first four.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 4 11s, 2 12s, 1 out
    8. UCLA (20-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 41 is solid. Helped by old RPI of 36.
      4. Predictive avg of 48 is not good.
      5. Need to beat Stanford, and would clinch if they beat Arizona again. Win against Arizona St would also help.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 3 10s, 2 11s, 1 13, 2 outs
    9. USC (21-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay. Helped by RPI of 34.
      4. Predictive avg of 46.3 is shaky.
      5. Hurt by losses to fellow bubbler UCLA and Arizona St. No great opportunities to boost resume before Pac12 champ game. Utah, Oregon, or even Washington could sink this ship.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 1 13, 2 outs
    10. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
      3. Resume avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
      4. Predictive avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
      5. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on resume or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan. Only resume helper is win over Rh Island, which gets them auto berth. They are not helped by the revised team sheets.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 6, 1 7, 2 8s, 2 9s, 1 10, 2 11s, 1 12
    11. Providence (19-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay.
      4. Predictive avg of 68 is just awful and worst on bubble.
      5. Can they get in on strength of wins over two 1 seeds? I don’t think so. Wins over Creighton and Xavier could do it though. Bracketmatrix does have them in, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 10s, 1 12, 6 outs
    12. Alabama (17-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg is 50. Not good.
      4. Predictive rating is 53. Not good.
      5. Nothing here to like much except the quad 1-2 wins. Win over Aggies helps, but not a lot. Probably takes a win over Auburn. Bracketmatrix does have them in at moment, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    13. Syracuse (19-12)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid, including RPI of 39. Now 45.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 50.3 is not good. Now 52.3.
      5. Probably takes a win over UNC to get in. Add Miami and I think that’ll get them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 7, 3 9s, 3 10s, 3 outs
    14. Marquette (18-12)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 49 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 47.3 is not good.
      5. Neither good nor bad resume. Win over Nova likely gets them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 2 outs
    15. Notre Dame (17-13)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg is 63 which is worst on bubble. Now 59.7
      4. Predictive of 27.3 is great. Best on bubble. Now 28.
      5. Another head scratcher. How much does the committee consider injuries? Have to be in if they do at all, don’t they? They’re in the discussion even without considering the injuries. Probably takes beating at least Duke and then we’ll see.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    16. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    17. If no Auto-Bid:
    18. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 29 is very good.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid.
      5. Very safe if they get to finals of A10. They might sweat a little if they don’t, but strength of resume avg probably pulls them through. Their resume is only marginally better than Bona, but the differences between 7-11 seeds is very marginal.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 8s, 1 10, 1 11, 4 12s, 2 outs
    19. Mid Tenn St (23-6)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg of 38 is solid.
      4. Predictive avg of 48.3 is not good.
      5. I think they’ll need auto bid to get in with no real opportunity to improve resume. Looking like a dangerous 12 seed.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 1 10, 3 11s, 3 12s, 2 outs
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. St. John’s in Big East? Seems unlikely.
    6. Miss St or Alabama in SEC? Not gonna happen.
    7. Miracle in Big 12 or ACC.
    8. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

March 7, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 14

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 NC State 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Rh Island 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Baylor 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Texas 57 Bucknell
8 Mich St 24 Texas A&M 40 Arizona St 58 Montana
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Louisville 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 St. Mary’s 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 UCLA 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Oklahoma 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Nevada 45 St. Bona 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Seton Hall 46 Oklahoma St 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Arkansas 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Kansas St (21-10)
      1. Best wins aren’t great, but sweeps against Baylor and Texas help a lot. Still have 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses
      3. RPI is awful at 62, but KPI and SOR are 41 and 26. Avg of 43 is solid. Now 41.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid. Now 41.7.
      5. Should be in even with loss to TCU. RPI is only weakness. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 3 8s, 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 outs
    2. Arizona St (20-10)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 51 is not good. Now 55.3.
      4. Predictive avg of 42.7 is solid. Now 46.3.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Colorado could have them sweating. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 10s, 8 outs
      7. Loss to Colorado hurts bad. Oklahoma St winning doesn’t help. I think weakness elsewhere keeps them in, but possibly looking at a trip to Dayton.
    3. Baylor (17-13)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (10) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg of 52 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 32.3 is great.
      5. Should be in, even with loss to W. Virginia. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 11s, 1 12, 6 outs
    4. Texas (18-13)
      1. Top wins not great, but not bad. Bubble wins over Butler and Bama. 8 quad 1-2 wins is decent.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid. Up to 39 after ISU.
      4. Predictive avg of 36.7 is even better.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Iowa St won’t help. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 3 9s, 3 10s, 1 12, 2 outs
      7. Win over Iowa St clinches it. This team should be in.
    5. Oklahoma St (18-13)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins. More than the 3 above them right now.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg of 61.7 which is horrid but mostly pulled down by awful RPI of 88. Up to 60.3 with win over OU.
      4. Predictive avg of 53.7, which is also not good. Up to 51.3 with win over OU.
      5. What do you do with this team? Win-loss profile looks just as good as anyone else on bubble, but ratings are awful. Eight wins in quad 4 really hurting them, I think.
      6. Need to win vs. Oklahoma. Three vs. Kansas should lock them in. I like them better than most other bracketologists, but I don’t know what committee will do here. The new team sheets should help tremendously, but no team with an RPI in the 80s has ever gotten in.
      7. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
      8. Helped tremendously by Syracuse loss. Would’ve been helped even more had Marquette lost. They could really use a Marquette, Providence, and St. Bona loss Thursday/Friday. Win over KU and in, though.
    6. Louisville (20-12)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 48 not good. Now 44.7 after win over FSU.
      4. Predictive avg of 31 is great. 28.3 after FSU.
      5. Got the win vs. FlaSt. Most troubling sign is lack of quad 1-2 wins. Win vs. UVa is clincher, but won’t be easy even though they basically were right there just last week. I seem to be one of few who think they’re pretty safe.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 1 10, 4 11s, 1 12, 3 outs
      7. Not sure how this team doesn’t get in. Committee would have to decide lack of top wins is the reason.
    7. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities. 24 wins against RPI 120+.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 50 is not good. Ol’ RPI makes there case look better than it is.
      4. Predictive avg of 34 is very good, though. Basically the opposite of St. Bona.
      5. Loss to BYU may have been nail, but name, ranking, and predictive ratings may carry the day. I think they’re safely in, but may be first four.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 4 11s, 2 12s, 1 out
    8. UCLA (20-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 41 is solid. Helped by old RPI of 36.
      4. Predictive avg of 48 is not good.
      5. Need to beat Stanford, and would clinch if they beat Arizona again. Win against Arizona St would also help.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 3 10s, 2 11s, 1 13, 2 outs
    9. USC (21-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay. Helped by RPI of 34.
      4. Predictive avg of 46.3 is shaky.
      5. Hurt by losses to fellow bubbler UCLA and Arizona St. No great opportunities to boost resume before Pac12 champ game. Utah, Oregon, or even Washington could sink this ship.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 1 13, 2 outs
    10. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
      3. Resume avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
      4. Predictive avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
      5. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on resume or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan. Only resume helper is win over Rh Island, which gets them auto berth. They are not helped by the revised team sheets.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 6, 1 7, 2 8s, 2 9s, 1 10, 2 11s, 1 12
    11. Providence (19-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay.
      4. Predictive avg of 68 is just awful and worst on bubble.
      5. Can they get in on strength of wins over two 1 seeds? I don’t think so. Wins over Creighton and Xavier could do it though. Bracketmatrix does have them in, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 10s, 1 12, 6 outs
    12. Alabama (17-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg is 50. Not good.
      4. Predictive rating is 53. Not good.
      5. Nothing here to like much except the quad 1-2 wins. Win over Aggies helps, but not a lot. Probably takes a win over Auburn. Bracketmatrix does have them in at moment, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    13. Syracuse (19-12)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid, including RPI of 39. Now 45.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 50.3 is not good. Now 52.3.
      5. Probably takes a win over UNC to get in. Add Miami and I think that’ll get them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 7, 3 9s, 3 10s, 3 outs
    14. Marquette (18-12)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 49 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 47.3 is not good.
      5. Neither good nor bad resume. Win over Nova likely gets them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 2 outs
    15. Notre Dame (17-13)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg is 63 which is worst on bubble. Now 59.7
      4. Predictive of 27.3 is great. Best on bubble. Now 28.
      5. Another head scratcher. How much does the committee consider injuries? Have to be in if they do at all, don’t they? They’re in the discussion even without considering the injuries. Probably takes beating at least Duke and then we’ll see.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    16. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    17. If no Auto-Bid:
    18. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 29 is very good.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid.
      5. Very safe if they get to finals of A10. They might sweat a little if they don’t, but strength of resume avg probably pulls them through. Their resume is only marginally better than Bona, but the differences between 7-11 seeds is very marginal.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 8s, 1 10, 1 11, 4 12s, 2 outs
    19. Mid Tenn St (23-6)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg of 38 is solid.
      4. Predictive avg of 48.3 is not good.
      5. I think they’ll need auto bid to get in with no real opportunity to improve resume. Looking like a dangerous 12 seed.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 1 10, 3 11s, 3 12s, 2 outs
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. St. John’s in Big East? Seems unlikely.
    6. Miss St or Alabama in SEC? Not gonna happen.
    7. Miracle in Big 12 or ACC.
    8. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

March 6, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 12

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 NC State 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Rh Island 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Arizona St 56 Northeastern
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Baylor 57 Bucknell
8 Michigan St 24 Texas A&M 40 Texas 58 N Kentucky
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Oklahoma St 59 Montana
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 Louisville 60 Rider
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 St. Mary’s 61 UCSB
12 Michigan 28 Oklahoma 44 UCLA 62 Penn
13 Clemson 29 Nevada 45 USC 63 SF Austin
14 Gonzaga 30 Seton Hall 46 St. Bona 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Arkansas 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Wagner
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Radford
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

Notes:

  1. Regarding St. Bonaventure
    1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great
    2. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
    3. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
    4. RPI, KPI, SOR avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
    5. BPI, KenPom, Sagarin avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
    6. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on strength of record and it’s decent wins or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan.

March 5, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 11

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Rh Island 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 St. Mary’s 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Florida St 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Missouri 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Texas 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Louisville 56 Northeastern
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Baylor 57 Bucknell
8 Michigan St 24 Nevada 40 Kansas St 58 N Kentucky
9 Cincinnati 25 Seton Hall 41 Mid Tenn St 59 Montana
10 Tennessee 26 Miami 42 NC State 60 Rider
11 Auburn 27 Texas A&M 43 USC 61 UCSB
12 Michigan 28 Creighton 44 UCLA 62 Penn
13 Clemson 29 Arkansas 45 Arizona St 63 SF Austin
14 Gonzaga 30 Va Tech 46 Syracuse 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Butler 47 Alabama 65 Wagner
16 W Virginia 32 Oklahoma 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Radford
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

March 2, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 10

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Gonzaga 33 Louisville 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 TCU 34 Butler 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Florida St 53 Buffalo
4 Kansas 20 Arizona 36 USC 54 S Dakota St
5 Michigan St 21 Rh Island 37 Arizona St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Auburn 22 Texas A&M 38 Alabama 56 Northeastern
7 UNC 23 Miami 39 NC State 57 Bucknell
8 Duke 24 Arkansas 40 Kansas St 58 N Kentucky
9 Tennessee 25 Creighton 41 Mid Tenn St 59 Montana
10 Purdue 26 Michigan 42 St. Mary’s 60 Rider
11 Cincinnati 27 Oklahoma 43 St. Bona 61 UCSB
12 Clemson 28 Houston 44 Baylor 62 Penn
13 Texas Tech 29 Nevada 45 Texas 63 SF Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Florida 46 Marquette 64 FGC
15 Ohio St 31 Va Tech 47 Notre Dame 65 Wagner
16 Wichita St 32 Missouri 48 Loyola-Chi 66 UNC Asheville
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

Notes:

  1. Virginia is a safe 1 seed. How will they treat Michigan St with poor RPI and lack of quad1 wins relative to Kansas and Xavier?
  2. Similarly how will they treat high RPI teams with lack of quad1 wins like Rhode Island, Nevada, St. Bona, St. Mary’s, etc.? This is the question I struggle most with every year.
  3. Can’t wait for next week

February 26, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 9

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Gonzaga 33 Louisville 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Kentucky 34 Va Tech 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Michigan 35 Alabama 53 Buffalo
4 Michigan St 20 Arizona 36 USC 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 TCU 37 Florida St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 UNC 22 Rh Island 38 NC State 56 Northeastern
7 Duke 23 Creighton 39 Arizona St 57 Bucknell
8 Auburn 24 Oklahoma 40 Kansas St 58 N Kentucky
9 Purdue 25 Texas A&M 41 Mid Tenn St 59 Montana
10 Tennessee 26 Arkansas 42 St. Mary’s 60 Rider
11 Cincinnati 27 Houston 43 Texas 61 UCSB
12 Texas Tech 28 Nevada 44 Baylor 62 Penn
13 Ohio St 29 Butler 45 Missouri 63 SF Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Seton Hall 46 St. Bona 64 FGC
15 Clemson 31 Miami 47 Miss St 65 Wagner
16 Wichita St 32 Florida 48 Loyola-Chi 66 UNC Asheville
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

Notes:

  1. Bids by conference: ACC (9), SEC (9), Big 12 (8), Big East (5), Big 10 (4), Pac 12 (3), AAC (3), A10 (2), WCC (2)
  2. Possible bid stealing leagues:
    1. Unlikely in ACC, SEC, Big 12, and Big 10 because it would take quite a run
    2. Big 10: would have to be Nebraska or Penn St making still very unlikely run
    3. Pac 12: could see Oregon, UCLA, or Washington making a run especially with goings-on at Arizona
    4. AAC: SMU, Tulsa, or Temple might make a run, but doubtful
    5. A10: Davidson or VCU could make a run. St. Bona might count as bid stealer even though they’re right there on bubble
    6. WCC: BYU only threat to steal here
    7. CUSA: Will Mid Tenn St make it in if it loses? If so, W. Kentucky and Old Dominion are major threats to steal a bid
    8. MoVal: Will Loyola make it in if it loses? If so, any team in this balanced league could steal a bid.
    9. Sun Belt: Cajuns very unlikely to be at large, but have small chance so Georgia State and Georgia Southern are threats to steal.
    10. It’s madness, so who knows?
  3. Bubble Watch: Crazy that there are projected 8 and 9 seeds right now on the bubble, but alas. So little difference between seeds 7-12.
    1. I think my 8 seeds and above are safe
    2. Louisville: Virginia, @NCSt — two tier1 opps
    3. Va Tech: Duke, @Miami — two tier 1 opps, either win and in, may be any way
      1. I think they’re very safe now.
    4. Alabama: Fla, @Texas A&M — either win and in, may be any way
      1. Embarrassing home loss increases urgency against Aggies
    5. USC: UCLA — I have them higher than most, but need this one or out
    6. Florida St: @Clemson, BC — can’t lose to BC, but either will get them in
    7. NC State: @GaTech, Louis — two wins and in, either L and it’s likely first four
    8. Arizona St: Cal, Stanford — need both to feel good
    9. Kansas St: @TCU, Baylor — either win and in, will be nail biter if 3 Ls to end
      1. Need to win against Baylor or at least 1st game in tourney which may be TT or WVa
    10. Mid Tenn St: W. Kentucky, Marshall — big game against hilltoppers
    11. St. Mary’s: Tourney — could use one more win against Zaga
    12. Texas: @KU, WestVa — two tier1 opps, either W should get them in
      1. Sweating it. Need win against ‘eers badly.
    13. Baylor: Okla, @KansasSt — get both to feel good, one should do it though
      1. 5 point jump in RPI helps tremendously. May need more.
    14. Missouri: @Vandy, Ark — need both to feel good, one should do it though
      1. Probably safe, but home win against rival to feel good
    15. St. Bona: Davidson, @StL — must get to final of A10 to feel any kind of good
      1. Whew! Loss would’ve downed bonnies. Hope still there.
    16. Miss St: Tenn, @LSU — two wins boosts resume significantly
      1. Big lost opportunity. May have sunk their chances.
    17. Marquette: @Gtown, Creighton — need both
      1. Still need win against Creighton
    18. Providence: @Xavier, StJohns — W at X, otherwise not lookin good
    19. Notre Dame: Pitt, @Virginia — need both, but win at V might do it
    20. Syracuse: @BC, Clemson — need both
    21. Boise St: @SDSU, Wyoming — I don’t think they can get in without auto
    22. Penn St: Tourney — Likely need both Ohio St and Purdue to get in
    23. Nebraska: Tourney — Likely need both Michigan and Mich St to get in
    24. UCLA: @USC — not sure at large is possible
    25. Utah: Colo — not sure at large is possible
    26. Oregon: @WashSt, @Wash — not sure at large is possible
    27. Georgia: TexasA&M, @Tenn — two great opps, but need both to sniff it
    28. LSU: @SoCar, MissSt — not great opportunity here, not happening
    29. Washington: OreSt, Ore — don’t think it’s happening

February 19, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 8

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Gonzaga 33 Missouri 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Texas A&M 34 Virginia Tech 52 Buffalo
3 Xavier 19 Wichita St 35 Alabama 53 E Tenn St
4 UNC 20 Kentucky 36 Nevada 54 Murray St
5 Kansas 21 Arkansas 37 Texas 55 South Dakota
6 Duke 22 Oklahoma 38 Miami 56 Northeastern
7 Michigan St 23 Creighton 39 St. Mary’s 57 Montana
8 Auburn 24 Rh Island 40 NC State 58 N Kentucky
9 Purdue 25 Michigan 41 Seton Hall 59 Bucknell
10 Texas Tech 26 TCU 42 Kansas St 60 Rider
11 Clemson 27 Arizona St 43 Louisville 61 UCSB
12 Cincinnati 28 Houston 44 Syracuse 62 Penn
13 Tennessee 29 Baylor 45 UCLA 63 SF Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Florida 46 Providence 64 Winthrop
15 Ohio St 31 Florida St 47 Mid Tenn St 65 FGC
16 Arizona 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Wagner
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 UNC A&T

Notes:

  1. Bubble Teams this week:
    1. Texas: @KSt, OklaSt — Need to win at home, bonus if win on road
    2. NC State: BC, FlaSt — need both to feel good
    3. Seton Hall: @Prov, @StJohns — need split, both and can breathe easy
    4. Kansas St: Tex, @Okla — need to split
    5. Louisville: @Duke, @VaTech — Great opportunity this week, split doable
    6. Syracuse: UNC. @Duke — Great opportunity this week, but gonna be tough
    7. UCLA: @Utah, @Colo — need both
    8. Providence: Seton, @Gtown — need both
    9. Notre Dame: Miami, @Wake — Need both
    10. St. Bona: Duquesne, VCU — need both and may still not be enough
    11. Marquette: StJohns, Depaul — need both
    12. USC: @Colo, @Utah — need both
    13. LSU: Vandy, @Georgia — need both
    14. Georgia: @SoCar, LSU — need both
    15. Nebraska: Indiana, Penn St — need both, barely hanging on

February 12, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 7

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Texas A&M 33 Alabama 51 E Tenn St
2 Villanova 18 W Virginia 34 Virginia Tech 52 N Kentucky
3 Xavier 19 Gonzaga 35 Wichita St 53 New Mex St
4 Purdue 20 Seton Hall 36 Nevada 54 Murray St
5 Auburn 21 Rhode Island 37 Missouri 55 South Dakota
6 Kansas 22 Kentucky 38 Arkansas 56 Buffalo
7 Duke 23 St. Mary’s 39 Kansas St 57 Northeastern
8 Cincinnati 24 Arizona St 40 Houston 58 Bucknell
9 Clemson 25 TCU 41 NC State 59 Iona
10 Texas Tech 26 Butler 42 Louisville 60 Penn
11 Michigan St 27 Creighton 43 UCLA 61 Montana
12 UNC 28 Miami 44 Baylor 62 FGC
13 Tennessee 29 Michigan 45 Syracuse 63 SF Austin
14 Ohio State 30 Florida 46 Washington 64 Winthrop
15 Arizona 31 Florida St 47 Mid Tenn St 65 UCSB
16 Oklahoma 32 Texas 48 Louisiana 66 Wagner
49 Vermont 67 Texas So
50 Loyola-Chi 68 Hampton

Notes:

  1. Bubble Watch this week:
    1. Kansas St: @OklaSt, Iowa St; @pokes is lose-able, but better to not
    2. Houston: Cinci, @Temple; both would be near-clinching
    3. NC State: @Cuse, @WF; can’t lose both
    4. Louisville: UNC; need quad1 wins like this one
    5. UCLA: Oregon St, Oregon; need to win both
    6. Baylor: @Tex, TexTech; split would be great for bears
    7. Syracuse: NCSt, @Miami; need both wins to feel good
    8. Washington: Utah, Colorado; need to win both
    9. USC; Oregon, Oregon St; need to win both
    10. Boise St: Nevada, AirForce; need to win both
    11. St. Bona; @LaSalle; RhIsl; need to win both
    12. Miss St; @Vandy, OleMiss; need to win both
    13. Nebraska: Maryland, @Illini; need both
    14. Maryland: @Neb, Rutgers; need both
    15. SMU: Memphis, @UCF; need both
    16. Marquette: @Creighton; need it