March 9, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 16

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Rh Island 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Texas 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Oklahoma 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 Arizona 36 Missouri 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 TCU 37 Alabama 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Florida St 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 NC State 57 Bucknell
8 Cincinnati 24 Texas A&M 40 St. Bona 58 Montana
9 Mich St 25 Miami 41 St. Mary’s 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Nevada 42 UCLA 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Seton Hall 43 Providence 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Arkansas 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Va Tech 45 Louisville 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Butler 46 Baylor 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Creighton 47 W Kentucky 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Kansas St 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
      2. Win over UNC clinches it, I think.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then. Doke injury shouldn’t really matter here unless something new comes out.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them. Look like a lock for a 2 seed.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
      2. Need to beat Duke or looking at 2 seed.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Alabama (18-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 10 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg = 44
      4. Predictive rating = 52
      5. Sims 4 9s, 11, 5 outs
    2. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse.
      3. Resume avg = 28
      4. Predictive avg = 58
      5. Sims = 4, 6, 3 7s, 3 8s, 2 9s
    3. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg = 48
      4. Predictive avg =32.3
      5. Sims = 8, 3 10s, 3 11s, 3 12s
    4. UCLA (21-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 38
      4. Predictive avg = 46.3
      5. Sims = 6, 2 7s, 2 8s, 3 9s, 2 11s
    5. Providence (20-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg = 37
      4. Predictive avg = 64.3
      5. Sims = 8, 2 9s, 10, 3 11s, 2 12s, out
    6. USC (22-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 43
      4. Predictive avg = 42.7
      5. Sims = 7, 8, 10, 5 11s, 12, out
    7. Louisville (20-13)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg = 44
      4. Predictive avg = 29.3
      5. Sims = 9, 10, 4 11s, 12, 3 outs
    8. Baylor (17-14)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (12) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg = 55
      4. Predictive avg = 33.3
      5. Sims = 11, 12, 8 outs
    9. Syracuse (20-13)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg = 46
      4. Predictive avg = 51.3
      5. Sims = 5 10s, 5 outs
    10. Marquette (19-13)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 49
      4. Predictive avg = 49
      5. Sims = 2 9s, 2 10s, 6 outs
    11. Arizona St (20-11)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 58.
      4. Predictive avg = 46.
      5. Sims = 2 10s, 8 outs
    12. Oklahoma St (18-14)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg = 60
      4. Predictive avg = 52.3
      5. Sims = 11, 9 outs
    13. Notre Dame (19-14)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg = 61
      4. Predictive avg = 30.3
      5. Sims = 11, 12, 8 outs
    14. Mid Tenn St (23-7)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg = 43
      4. Predictive avg = 54
      5. Sims = 2 10s, 11, 4 outs
    15. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    16. If no Auto-Bid:
    17. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 28
      4. Predictive avg = 43
      5. Sims = 8, 9, 10, 11, 4 12s, out
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

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