March 7, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 14

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 NC State 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Rh Island 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Baylor 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Texas 57 Bucknell
8 Mich St 24 Texas A&M 40 Arizona St 58 Montana
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Louisville 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 St. Mary’s 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 UCLA 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Oklahoma 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Nevada 45 St. Bona 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Seton Hall 46 Oklahoma St 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Arkansas 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Kansas St (21-10)
      1. Best wins aren’t great, but sweeps against Baylor and Texas help a lot. Still have 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses
      3. RPI is awful at 62, but KPI and SOR are 41 and 26. Avg of 43 is solid. Now 41.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid. Now 41.7.
      5. Should be in even with loss to TCU. RPI is only weakness. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 3 8s, 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 outs
    2. Arizona St (20-10)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 51 is not good. Now 55.3.
      4. Predictive avg of 42.7 is solid. Now 46.3.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Colorado could have them sweating. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 10s, 8 outs
      7. Loss to Colorado hurts bad. Oklahoma St winning doesn’t help. I think weakness elsewhere keeps them in, but possibly looking at a trip to Dayton.
    3. Baylor (17-13)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (10) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg of 52 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 32.3 is great.
      5. Should be in, even with loss to W. Virginia. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 11s, 1 12, 6 outs
    4. Texas (18-13)
      1. Top wins not great, but not bad. Bubble wins over Butler and Bama. 8 quad 1-2 wins is decent.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid. Up to 39 after ISU.
      4. Predictive avg of 36.7 is even better.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Iowa St won’t help. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 3 9s, 3 10s, 1 12, 2 outs
      7. Win over Iowa St clinches it. This team should be in.
    5. Oklahoma St (18-13)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins. More than the 3 above them right now.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg of 61.7 which is horrid but mostly pulled down by awful RPI of 88. Up to 60.3 with win over OU.
      4. Predictive avg of 53.7, which is also not good. Up to 51.3 with win over OU.
      5. What do you do with this team? Win-loss profile looks just as good as anyone else on bubble, but ratings are awful. Eight wins in quad 4 really hurting them, I think.
      6. Need to win vs. Oklahoma. Three vs. Kansas should lock them in. I like them better than most other bracketologists, but I don’t know what committee will do here. The new team sheets should help tremendously, but no team with an RPI in the 80s has ever gotten in.
      7. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
      8. Helped tremendously by Syracuse loss. Would’ve been helped even more had Marquette lost. They could really use a Marquette, Providence, and St. Bona loss Thursday/Friday. Win over KU and in, though.
    6. Louisville (20-12)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 48 not good. Now 44.7 after win over FSU.
      4. Predictive avg of 31 is great. 28.3 after FSU.
      5. Got the win vs. FlaSt. Most troubling sign is lack of quad 1-2 wins. Win vs. UVa is clincher, but won’t be easy even though they basically were right there just last week. I seem to be one of few who think they’re pretty safe.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 1 10, 4 11s, 1 12, 3 outs
      7. Not sure how this team doesn’t get in. Committee would have to decide lack of top wins is the reason.
    7. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities. 24 wins against RPI 120+.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 50 is not good. Ol’ RPI makes there case look better than it is.
      4. Predictive avg of 34 is very good, though. Basically the opposite of St. Bona.
      5. Loss to BYU may have been nail, but name, ranking, and predictive ratings may carry the day. I think they’re safely in, but may be first four.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 4 11s, 2 12s, 1 out
    8. UCLA (20-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 41 is solid. Helped by old RPI of 36.
      4. Predictive avg of 48 is not good.
      5. Need to beat Stanford, and would clinch if they beat Arizona again. Win against Arizona St would also help.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 3 10s, 2 11s, 1 13, 2 outs
    9. USC (21-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay. Helped by RPI of 34.
      4. Predictive avg of 46.3 is shaky.
      5. Hurt by losses to fellow bubbler UCLA and Arizona St. No great opportunities to boost resume before Pac12 champ game. Utah, Oregon, or even Washington could sink this ship.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 1 13, 2 outs
    10. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
      3. Resume avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
      4. Predictive avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
      5. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on resume or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan. Only resume helper is win over Rh Island, which gets them auto berth. They are not helped by the revised team sheets.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 6, 1 7, 2 8s, 2 9s, 1 10, 2 11s, 1 12
    11. Providence (19-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay.
      4. Predictive avg of 68 is just awful and worst on bubble.
      5. Can they get in on strength of wins over two 1 seeds? I don’t think so. Wins over Creighton and Xavier could do it though. Bracketmatrix does have them in, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 10s, 1 12, 6 outs
    12. Alabama (17-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg is 50. Not good.
      4. Predictive rating is 53. Not good.
      5. Nothing here to like much except the quad 1-2 wins. Win over Aggies helps, but not a lot. Probably takes a win over Auburn. Bracketmatrix does have them in at moment, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    13. Syracuse (19-12)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid, including RPI of 39. Now 45.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 50.3 is not good. Now 52.3.
      5. Probably takes a win over UNC to get in. Add Miami and I think that’ll get them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 7, 3 9s, 3 10s, 3 outs
    14. Marquette (18-12)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 49 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 47.3 is not good.
      5. Neither good nor bad resume. Win over Nova likely gets them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 2 outs
    15. Notre Dame (17-13)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg is 63 which is worst on bubble. Now 59.7
      4. Predictive of 27.3 is great. Best on bubble. Now 28.
      5. Another head scratcher. How much does the committee consider injuries? Have to be in if they do at all, don’t they? They’re in the discussion even without considering the injuries. Probably takes beating at least Duke and then we’ll see.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    16. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    17. If no Auto-Bid:
    18. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 29 is very good.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid.
      5. Very safe if they get to finals of A10. They might sweat a little if they don’t, but strength of resume avg probably pulls them through. Their resume is only marginally better than Bona, but the differences between 7-11 seeds is very marginal.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 8s, 1 10, 1 11, 4 12s, 2 outs
    19. Mid Tenn St (23-6)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg of 38 is solid.
      4. Predictive avg of 48.3 is not good.
      5. I think they’ll need auto bid to get in with no real opportunity to improve resume. Looking like a dangerous 12 seed.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 1 10, 3 11s, 3 12s, 2 outs
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. St. John’s in Big East? Seems unlikely.
    6. Miss St or Alabama in SEC? Not gonna happen.
    7. Miracle in Big 12 or ACC.
    8. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

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