Final Bracket

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 17

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Texas Tech 33 Kansas St 51 Buffalo
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 UNC Greensboro
3 Kansas 19 Kentucky 35 Providence 53 Marshall
4 Xavier 20 Wichita St 36 Texas 54 Charleston
5 UNC 21 Houston 37 Alabama 55 Montana
6 Duke 22 Florida 38 Oklahoma 56 Bucknell
7 Purdue 23 Arkansas 39 Florida St 57 SF Austin
8 Cincinnati 24 TCU 40 NC State 58 Georgia St
9 Mich St 25 Texas A&M 41 UCLA 59 Penn
10 Tennessee 26 Miami 42 St. Bona 60 Wright St
11 Michigan 27 Seton Hall 43 St. Mary’s 61 Iona
12 Auburn 28 Va Tech 44 USC 62 Lipscomb
13 W Virginia 29 Butler 45 Loyola Chi 63 CS Fullerton
14 Clemson 30 Creighton 46 Davidson 64 UMBC
15 Gonzaga 31 Rh Island 47 San Diego St 65 Radford
16 Arizona 32 Nevada 48 New Mex St 66 NC Central
49 S Dakota St 67 Texas So
50 Murray St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Bracket:

2018 Bracket Final

March 9, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 16

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Rh Island 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Texas 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Oklahoma 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 Arizona 36 Missouri 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 TCU 37 Alabama 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Florida St 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 NC State 57 Bucknell
8 Cincinnati 24 Texas A&M 40 St. Bona 58 Montana
9 Mich St 25 Miami 41 St. Mary’s 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Nevada 42 UCLA 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Seton Hall 43 Providence 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Arkansas 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Va Tech 45 Louisville 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Butler 46 Baylor 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Creighton 47 W Kentucky 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Kansas St 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
      2. Win over UNC clinches it, I think.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then. Doke injury shouldn’t really matter here unless something new comes out.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them. Look like a lock for a 2 seed.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
      2. Need to beat Duke or looking at 2 seed.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Alabama (18-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 10 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg = 44
      4. Predictive rating = 52
      5. Sims 4 9s, 11, 5 outs
    2. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse.
      3. Resume avg = 28
      4. Predictive avg = 58
      5. Sims = 4, 6, 3 7s, 3 8s, 2 9s
    3. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg = 48
      4. Predictive avg =32.3
      5. Sims = 8, 3 10s, 3 11s, 3 12s
    4. UCLA (21-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 38
      4. Predictive avg = 46.3
      5. Sims = 6, 2 7s, 2 8s, 3 9s, 2 11s
    5. Providence (20-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg = 37
      4. Predictive avg = 64.3
      5. Sims = 8, 2 9s, 10, 3 11s, 2 12s, out
    6. USC (22-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 43
      4. Predictive avg = 42.7
      5. Sims = 7, 8, 10, 5 11s, 12, out
    7. Louisville (20-13)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg = 44
      4. Predictive avg = 29.3
      5. Sims = 9, 10, 4 11s, 12, 3 outs
    8. Baylor (17-14)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (12) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg = 55
      4. Predictive avg = 33.3
      5. Sims = 11, 12, 8 outs
    9. Syracuse (20-13)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg = 46
      4. Predictive avg = 51.3
      5. Sims = 5 10s, 5 outs
    10. Marquette (19-13)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 49
      4. Predictive avg = 49
      5. Sims = 2 9s, 2 10s, 6 outs
    11. Arizona St (20-11)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 58.
      4. Predictive avg = 46.
      5. Sims = 2 10s, 8 outs
    12. Oklahoma St (18-14)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg = 60
      4. Predictive avg = 52.3
      5. Sims = 11, 9 outs
    13. Notre Dame (19-14)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg = 61
      4. Predictive avg = 30.3
      5. Sims = 11, 12, 8 outs
    14. Mid Tenn St (23-7)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg = 43
      4. Predictive avg = 54
      5. Sims = 2 10s, 11, 4 outs
    15. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    16. If no Auto-Bid:
    17. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg = 28
      4. Predictive avg = 43
      5. Sims = 8, 9, 10, 11, 4 12s, out
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

March 8, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 15

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Rh Island 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 NC State 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Texas 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Baylor 57 Bucknell
8 Mich St 24 Texas A&M 40 Louisville 58 Montana
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Arizona St 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 St. Mary’s 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 UCLA 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Nevada 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Arkansas 45 St. Bona 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Oklahoma 46 Oklahoma St 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Seton Hall 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Kansas St (21-10)
      1. Best wins aren’t great, but sweeps against Baylor and Texas help a lot. Still have 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses
      3. RPI is awful at 62, but KPI and SOR are 41 and 26. Avg of 43 is solid. Now 41.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid. Now 41.7.
      5. Should be in even with loss to TCU. RPI is only weakness. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 3 8s, 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 outs
    2. Arizona St (20-10)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 51 is not good. Now 55.3.
      4. Predictive avg of 42.7 is solid. Now 46.3.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Colorado could have them sweating. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 10s, 8 outs
      7. Loss to Colorado hurts bad. Oklahoma St winning doesn’t help. I think weakness elsewhere keeps them in, but possibly looking at a trip to Dayton.
    3. Baylor (17-13)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (10) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg of 52 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 32.3 is great.
      5. Should be in, even with loss to W. Virginia. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 11s, 1 12, 6 outs
    4. Texas (18-13)
      1. Top wins not great, but not bad. Bubble wins over Butler and Bama. 8 quad 1-2 wins is decent.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid. Up to 39 after ISU.
      4. Predictive avg of 36.7 is even better.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Iowa St won’t help. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 3 9s, 3 10s, 1 12, 2 outs
      7. Win over Iowa St clinches it. This team should be in.
    5. Oklahoma St (18-13)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins. More than the 3 above them right now.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg of 61.7 which is horrid but mostly pulled down by awful RPI of 88. Up to 60.3 with win over OU.
      4. Predictive avg of 53.7, which is also not good. Up to 51.3 with win over OU.
      5. What do you do with this team? Win-loss profile looks just as good as anyone else on bubble, but ratings are awful. Eight wins in quad 4 really hurting them, I think.
      6. Need to win vs. Oklahoma. Three vs. Kansas should lock them in. I like them better than most other bracketologists, but I don’t know what committee will do here. The new team sheets should help tremendously, but no team with an RPI in the 80s has ever gotten in.
      7. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
      8. Helped tremendously by Syracuse loss. Would’ve been helped even more had Marquette lost. They could really use a Marquette, Providence, and St. Bona loss Thursday/Friday. Win over KU and in, though.
    6. Louisville (20-12)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 48 not good. Now 44.7 after win over FSU.
      4. Predictive avg of 31 is great. 28.3 after FSU.
      5. Got the win vs. FlaSt. Most troubling sign is lack of quad 1-2 wins. Win vs. UVa is clincher, but won’t be easy even though they basically were right there just last week. I seem to be one of few who think they’re pretty safe.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 1 10, 4 11s, 1 12, 3 outs
      7. Not sure how this team doesn’t get in. Committee would have to decide lack of top wins is the reason.
    7. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities. 24 wins against RPI 120+.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 50 is not good. Ol’ RPI makes there case look better than it is.
      4. Predictive avg of 34 is very good, though. Basically the opposite of St. Bona.
      5. Loss to BYU may have been nail, but name, ranking, and predictive ratings may carry the day. I think they’re safely in, but may be first four.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 4 11s, 2 12s, 1 out
    8. UCLA (20-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 41 is solid. Helped by old RPI of 36.
      4. Predictive avg of 48 is not good.
      5. Need to beat Stanford, and would clinch if they beat Arizona again. Win against Arizona St would also help.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 3 10s, 2 11s, 1 13, 2 outs
    9. USC (21-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay. Helped by RPI of 34.
      4. Predictive avg of 46.3 is shaky.
      5. Hurt by losses to fellow bubbler UCLA and Arizona St. No great opportunities to boost resume before Pac12 champ game. Utah, Oregon, or even Washington could sink this ship.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 1 13, 2 outs
    10. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
      3. Resume avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
      4. Predictive avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
      5. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on resume or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan. Only resume helper is win over Rh Island, which gets them auto berth. They are not helped by the revised team sheets.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 6, 1 7, 2 8s, 2 9s, 1 10, 2 11s, 1 12
    11. Providence (19-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay.
      4. Predictive avg of 68 is just awful and worst on bubble.
      5. Can they get in on strength of wins over two 1 seeds? I don’t think so. Wins over Creighton and Xavier could do it though. Bracketmatrix does have them in, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 10s, 1 12, 6 outs
    12. Alabama (17-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg is 50. Not good.
      4. Predictive rating is 53. Not good.
      5. Nothing here to like much except the quad 1-2 wins. Win over Aggies helps, but not a lot. Probably takes a win over Auburn. Bracketmatrix does have them in at moment, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    13. Syracuse (19-12)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid, including RPI of 39. Now 45.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 50.3 is not good. Now 52.3.
      5. Probably takes a win over UNC to get in. Add Miami and I think that’ll get them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 7, 3 9s, 3 10s, 3 outs
    14. Marquette (18-12)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 49 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 47.3 is not good.
      5. Neither good nor bad resume. Win over Nova likely gets them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 2 outs
    15. Notre Dame (17-13)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg is 63 which is worst on bubble. Now 59.7
      4. Predictive of 27.3 is great. Best on bubble. Now 28.
      5. Another head scratcher. How much does the committee consider injuries? Have to be in if they do at all, don’t they? They’re in the discussion even without considering the injuries. Probably takes beating at least Duke and then we’ll see.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    16. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    17. If no Auto-Bid:
    18. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 29 is very good.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid.
      5. Very safe if they get to finals of A10. They might sweat a little if they don’t, but strength of resume avg probably pulls them through. Their resume is only marginally better than Bona, but the differences between 7-11 seeds is very marginal.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 8s, 1 10, 1 11, 4 12s, 2 outs
    19. Mid Tenn St (23-6)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg of 38 is solid.
      4. Predictive avg of 48.3 is not good.
      5. I think they’ll need auto bid to get in with no real opportunity to improve resume. Looking like a dangerous 12 seed.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 1 10, 3 11s, 3 12s, 2 outs
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. St. John’s in Big East? Seems unlikely.
    6. Miss St or Alabama in SEC? Not gonna happen.
    7. Miracle in Big 12 or ACC.
    8. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

March 7, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 14

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 NC State 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Rh Island 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Baylor 56 Charleston
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Texas 57 Bucknell
8 Mich St 24 Texas A&M 40 Arizona St 58 Montana
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Louisville 59 Iona
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 St. Mary’s 60 UCSB
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 UCLA 61 Penn
12 Michigan 28 Oklahoma 44 USC 62 SF Austin
13 Clemson 29 Nevada 45 St. Bona 63 Wright St
14 Gonzaga 30 Seton Hall 46 Oklahoma St 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Arkansas 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Radford
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Hampton
49 Louisiana 67 Texas So
50 New Mex St 68 LIU Brooklyn

Notes:

  1. 1 Seed breakdown
    1. Virginia (28-2)
      1. Lock
    2. Villanova (27-4)
      1. Second in resume rank and first in predictive rank. Eight quad 1 wins and one bad loss. Virtual lock for 1 seed. First round loss could drop them.
    3. Xavier (27-4)
      1. Third in resume rank, but 13th in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Not a guarantee unless they win Big East Tourney.
    4. Duke (25-6)
      1. Fourth in resume rank and 3rd in predictive rank. Just 6 quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. ACC finals gives them very good shot at 1 seed.
    5. Kansas (24-7)
      1. Fifth in resume rank and 9th in predictive rank. Whopping 10 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Winning Big12 clinches it, finals gives them good chance. They’d replace either Duke or Xavier, unless both win out. Might replace Nova then.
    6. Purdue (28-6)
      1. Eighth in resume rank and 4th in predictive rank. Just six quad 1 wins, but no bad losses. Can’t improve resume. I don’t think they’re getting it without some carnage ahead of them.
    7. UNC (22-9)
      1. Sixth in resume rank and 5th in predictive rank. Whopping 11 quad 1 wins, but one bad loss. Have good shot if they reach finals of ACC, depending on what happens ahead of them. Crazy that a ten loss team would have a shot at 1 seed! Winning ACC gives them very strong chance.
  2. Bubble Breakdown
    1. Kansas St (21-10)
      1. Best wins aren’t great, but sweeps against Baylor and Texas help a lot. Still have 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses
      3. RPI is awful at 62, but KPI and SOR are 41 and 26. Avg of 43 is solid. Now 41.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid. Now 41.7.
      5. Should be in even with loss to TCU. RPI is only weakness. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 3 8s, 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 outs
    2. Arizona St (20-10)
      1. Phenomenal wins against Xavier and Kansas. Just 7 quads 1-2 wins.
      2. At Oregon St only bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 51 is not good. Now 55.3.
      4. Predictive avg of 42.7 is solid. Now 46.3.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Colorado could have them sweating. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 10s, 8 outs
      7. Loss to Colorado hurts bad. Oklahoma St winning doesn’t help. I think weakness elsewhere keeps them in, but possibly looking at a trip to Dayton.
    3. Baylor (17-13)
      1. Decent top wins including one against Kansas. 7 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses. Bulk of losses (10) in quad 1.
      3. Resume avg of 52 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 32.3 is great.
      5. Should be in, even with loss to W. Virginia. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 11s, 1 12, 6 outs
    4. Texas (18-13)
      1. Top wins not great, but not bad. Bubble wins over Butler and Bama. 8 quad 1-2 wins is decent.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid. Up to 39 after ISU.
      4. Predictive avg of 36.7 is even better.
      5. Should be in, but loss to Iowa St won’t help. Plenty of opportunity to improve resume.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 3 9s, 3 10s, 1 12, 2 outs
      7. Win over Iowa St clinches it. This team should be in.
    5. Oklahoma St (18-13)
      1. Very good top wins including a pair against Kansas. 9 quad 1-2 wins. More than the 3 above them right now.
      2. No bad losses, but swept by bubblers K-State and Baylor.
      3. Resume avg of 61.7 which is horrid but mostly pulled down by awful RPI of 88. Up to 60.3 with win over OU.
      4. Predictive avg of 53.7, which is also not good. Up to 51.3 with win over OU.
      5. What do you do with this team? Win-loss profile looks just as good as anyone else on bubble, but ratings are awful. Eight wins in quad 4 really hurting them, I think.
      6. Need to win vs. Oklahoma. Three vs. Kansas should lock them in. I like them better than most other bracketologists, but I don’t know what committee will do here. The new team sheets should help tremendously, but no team with an RPI in the 80s has ever gotten in.
      7. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
      8. Helped tremendously by Syracuse loss. Would’ve been helped even more had Marquette lost. They could really use a Marquette, Providence, and St. Bona loss Thursday/Friday. Win over KU and in, though.
    6. Louisville (20-12)
      1. Top wins on road at FSU and VaTech not awful, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. No bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 48 not good. Now 44.7 after win over FSU.
      4. Predictive avg of 31 is great. 28.3 after FSU.
      5. Got the win vs. FlaSt. Most troubling sign is lack of quad 1-2 wins. Win vs. UVa is clincher, but won’t be easy even though they basically were right there just last week. I seem to be one of few who think they’re pretty safe.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 1 10, 4 11s, 1 12, 3 outs
      7. Not sure how this team doesn’t get in. Committee would have to decide lack of top wins is the reason.
    7. St. Mary’s (28-5)
      1. One good win against Zags. Just 4 quad 1-2 wins out of 7 opportunities. 24 wins against RPI 120+.
      2. Two bad losses.
      3. Resume avg of 50 is not good. Ol’ RPI makes there case look better than it is.
      4. Predictive avg of 34 is very good, though. Basically the opposite of St. Bona.
      5. Loss to BYU may have been nail, but name, ranking, and predictive ratings may carry the day. I think they’re safely in, but may be first four.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 4 11s, 2 12s, 1 out
    8. UCLA (20-10)
      1. Very good top wins including against wildcats of Kentucky and Arizona. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One very bad loss and one kind of bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 41 is solid. Helped by old RPI of 36.
      4. Predictive avg of 48 is not good.
      5. Need to beat Stanford, and would clinch if they beat Arizona again. Win against Arizona St would also help.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 3 10s, 2 11s, 1 13, 2 outs
    9. USC (21-10)
      1. Top wins aren’t great, but aren’t awful. Nine quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One extremely bad loss and one pretty bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay. Helped by RPI of 34.
      4. Predictive avg of 46.3 is shaky.
      5. Hurt by losses to fellow bubbler UCLA and Arizona St. No great opportunities to boost resume before Pac12 champ game. Utah, Oregon, or even Washington could sink this ship.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 1 13, 2 outs
    10. St. Bonaventure (24-6)
      1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great. 7 quad 1-2 wins. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
      2. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
      3. Resume avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
      4. Predictive avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
      5. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on resume or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan. Only resume helper is win over Rh Island, which gets them auto berth. They are not helped by the revised team sheets.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 6, 1 7, 2 8s, 2 9s, 1 10, 2 11s, 1 12
    11. Providence (19-12)
      1. Great top wins, though all at home. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three inexplicable losses.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is okay.
      4. Predictive avg of 68 is just awful and worst on bubble.
      5. Can they get in on strength of wins over two 1 seeds? I don’t think so. Wins over Creighton and Xavier could do it though. Bracketmatrix does have them in, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 9, 2 10s, 1 12, 6 outs
    12. Alabama (17-14)
      1. Good top wins, though all at home. 9 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad losses, but not as bad as the previous two teams.
      3. Resume avg is 50. Not good.
      4. Predictive rating is 53. Not good.
      5. Nothing here to like much except the quad 1-2 wins. Win over Aggies helps, but not a lot. Probably takes a win over Auburn. Bracketmatrix does have them in at moment, but I do not.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    13. Syracuse (19-12)
      1. Some good top wins including Clemson and Miami. Six wins in quad 1-2.
      2. Two bad losses. Loss to bubbler St. Bona isn’t helping.
      3. Resume avg of 43 is solid, including RPI of 39. Now 45.7.
      4. Predictive avg of 50.3 is not good. Now 52.3.
      5. Probably takes a win over UNC to get in. Add Miami and I think that’ll get them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 7, 3 9s, 3 10s, 3 outs
    14. Marquette (18-12)
      1. Sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall are top wins. 8 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 49 is not good.
      4. Predictive avg of 47.3 is not good.
      5. Neither good nor bad resume. Win over Nova likely gets them in.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 9s, 2 10s, 3 11s, 1 12, 2 outs
    15. Notre Dame (17-13)
      1. Top wins are okay, including neutral over Wichita St and road W at Syracuse. Six quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three bad but not horrid losses. I’d rate their losses better than St. Bona, Providence, and on par with Syracuse.
      3. Resume avg is 63 which is worst on bubble. Now 59.7
      4. Predictive of 27.3 is great. Best on bubble. Now 28.
      5. Another head scratcher. How much does the committee consider injuries? Have to be in if they do at all, don’t they? They’re in the discussion even without considering the injuries. Probably takes beating at least Duke and then we’ll see.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 1 11, 9 outs
    16. I don’t think any others deserve consideration.
    17. If no Auto-Bid:
    18. Rhode Island (23-6)
      1. Okay top wins, but not great. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins. Like Bona, 17 wins are against 120+ RPI.
      2. One bad loss.
      3. Resume avg of 29 is very good.
      4. Predictive avg of 43.7 is solid.
      5. Very safe if they get to finals of A10. They might sweat a little if they don’t, but strength of resume avg probably pulls them through. Their resume is only marginally better than Bona, but the differences between 7-11 seeds is very marginal.
      6. T-Ranketology comparisons: 2 8s, 1 10, 1 11, 4 12s, 2 outs
    19. Mid Tenn St (23-6)
      1. No really good wins. Just 5 quad 1-2 wins.
      2. Three not so great, but not terrible losses.
      3. Resume avg of 38 is solid.
      4. Predictive avg of 48.3 is not good.
      5. I think they’ll need auto bid to get in with no real opportunity to improve resume. Looking like a dangerous 12 seed.
      6. T-ranketology comparisons: 1 8, 1 10, 3 11s, 3 12s, 2 outs
  3. At large bid thieves in order of likelihood
    1. Boise or New Mexico in MWC. Nevada likely has at large. Could happen.
    2. Utah or Oregon in Pac12. Seems possible, but not likely.
    3. Tulsa if they can beat two of Cinci, WSU, and Houston. Not likely. No one else in AAC can, can they?
    4. Davidson or St. Joes in A10 if RI and Bona get at larges.
    5. St. John’s in Big East? Seems unlikely.
    6. Miss St or Alabama in SEC? Not gonna happen.
    7. Miracle in Big 12 or ACC.
    8. CUSA other than MTSU. Don’t think MTSU gets at large though.

March 6, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 12

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Florida St 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 Missouri 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 NC State 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Rh Island 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Kansas St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Arizona St 56 Northeastern
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Baylor 57 Bucknell
8 Michigan St 24 Texas A&M 40 Texas 58 N Kentucky
9 Cincinnati 25 Miami 41 Oklahoma St 59 Montana
10 Tennessee 26 Creighton 42 Louisville 60 Rider
11 Auburn 27 Va Tech 43 St. Mary’s 61 UCSB
12 Michigan 28 Oklahoma 44 UCLA 62 Penn
13 Clemson 29 Nevada 45 USC 63 SF Austin
14 Gonzaga 30 Seton Hall 46 St. Bona 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Arkansas 47 Mid Tenn St 65 Wagner
16 W Virginia 32 Butler 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Radford
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

Notes:

  1. Regarding St. Bonaventure
    1. Wins against Rh Island, Buffalo, and Syracuse are nice, but not great
    2. 17 wins are against 120 RPI or worse. That’s not great. However, it’s better than St. Mary’s 24.
    3. 3 losses are against 130 RPI or worse. That’s not great. That does compare to Alabama, Providence, and Syracuse, but none of which I have in the field.
    4. RPI, KPI, SOR avg is very good: 29. Better than all the bubble teams.
    5. BPI, KenPom, Sagarin avg is terrible: 57.3. Worse than all the bubble teams except Providence.
    6. This will be tough call for committee. Do they get in on strength of record and it’s decent wins or do they get left out on weakness of predictive ratings and bad losses? I pick the former over what Alabama, Syracuse, Providence, Marquette, and Notre Dame have to offer, but I wouldn’t feel too secure if I were a Bonnies fan.

March 5, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 11

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Wichita St 33 Rh Island 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 Ohio St 34 St. Mary’s 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Florida St 53 Buffalo
4 Duke 20 TCU 36 Missouri 54 S Dakota St
5 Kansas 21 Arizona 37 Texas 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Purdue 22 Houston 38 Louisville 56 Northeastern
7 UNC 23 Florida 39 Baylor 57 Bucknell
8 Michigan St 24 Nevada 40 Kansas St 58 N Kentucky
9 Cincinnati 25 Seton Hall 41 Mid Tenn St 59 Montana
10 Tennessee 26 Miami 42 NC State 60 Rider
11 Auburn 27 Texas A&M 43 USC 61 UCSB
12 Michigan 28 Creighton 44 UCLA 62 Penn
13 Clemson 29 Arkansas 45 Arizona St 63 SF Austin
14 Gonzaga 30 Va Tech 46 Syracuse 64 Lipscomb
15 Texas Tech 31 Butler 47 Alabama 65 Wagner
16 W Virginia 32 Oklahoma 48 Loyola-Chi 66 Radford
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

March 2, 2018

Seeds:

2018 Bracket 10

Rankings:

1 Virginia 17 Gonzaga 33 Louisville 51 Vermont
2 Villanova 18 TCU 34 Butler 52 Murray St
3 Xavier 19 Kentucky 35 Florida St 53 Buffalo
4 Kansas 20 Arizona 36 USC 54 S Dakota St
5 Michigan St 21 Rh Island 37 Arizona St 55 UNC Greensboro
6 Auburn 22 Texas A&M 38 Alabama 56 Northeastern
7 UNC 23 Miami 39 NC State 57 Bucknell
8 Duke 24 Arkansas 40 Kansas St 58 N Kentucky
9 Tennessee 25 Creighton 41 Mid Tenn St 59 Montana
10 Purdue 26 Michigan 42 St. Mary’s 60 Rider
11 Cincinnati 27 Oklahoma 43 St. Bona 61 UCSB
12 Clemson 28 Houston 44 Baylor 62 Penn
13 Texas Tech 29 Nevada 45 Texas 63 SF Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Florida 46 Marquette 64 FGC
15 Ohio St 31 Va Tech 47 Notre Dame 65 Wagner
16 Wichita St 32 Missouri 48 Loyola-Chi 66 UNC Asheville
49 Louisiana 67 Hampton
50 New Mex St 68 Texas So

Notes:

  1. Virginia is a safe 1 seed. How will they treat Michigan St with poor RPI and lack of quad1 wins relative to Kansas and Xavier?
  2. Similarly how will they treat high RPI teams with lack of quad1 wins like Rhode Island, Nevada, St. Bona, St. Mary’s, etc.? This is the question I struggle most with every year.
  3. Can’t wait for next week