March 2, 2017




  1. Still in contention: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, and Rhode Island.
  2. Illinois, Syracuse, Kansas St, and Wake Forest all have very similar resumes. They’re last few games will likely determine whether they make it in. Vanderbilt isn’t too far behind. I think that’s it among high major candidates. I think the rest are done.
  3. Along side them are Illinois State and Rhode Island. I think both are likely out as at-large teams because they’re resumes just don’t stack up to the other four teams. They compare to a Monmouth team from last year that didn’t make it in. I think they only get in as at large teams if past sentiment towards the little guys sways this year’s committee.
  4. I only see these conferences as bubble-bursters:
    1. AAC — Houston, UCF, UConn, or Memphis are probably good enough to make a run and then it’d be SMU, Cinci, and the auto bid.
    2. A10 — Rhode Island and Richmond could win the auto bid and steal a bubble spot. I don’t think the Rams will get an at-large bid, but Dayton and VCU both look safe.
    3. MoVal — Wichita St looks safe. Illinois St not so much. I think the Redbirds winning amounts to an at large steal. No one else is capable of beating both the Redbirds and the Shockers back to back and a simultaneous upset of both is very unlikely.
    4. WCC — BYU might pull it off, but still unlikely to get through both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
    5. ACC, Big12, Big10, Big East, SEC, and Pac12 are all multi-bid leagues and could thus produce a bubble-burster but a non at-large team winning the tourney champ is so very unlikely that I don’t really count them.

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