- Still in contention: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, and Rhode Island.
- Illinois, Syracuse, Kansas St, and Wake Forest all have very similar resumes. They’re last few games will likely determine whether they make it in. Vanderbilt isn’t too far behind. I think that’s it among high major candidates. I think the rest are done.
- Along side them are Illinois State and Rhode Island. I think both are likely out as at-large teams because they’re resumes just don’t stack up to the other four teams. They compare to a Monmouth team from last year that didn’t make it in. I think they only get in as at large teams if past sentiment towards the little guys sways this year’s committee.
- I only see these conferences as bubble-bursters:
- AAC — Houston, UCF, UConn, or Memphis are probably good enough to make a run and then it’d be SMU, Cinci, and the auto bid.
- A10 — Rhode Island and Richmond could win the auto bid and steal a bubble spot. I don’t think the Rams will get an at-large bid, but Dayton and VCU both look safe.
- MoVal — Wichita St looks safe. Illinois St not so much. I think the Redbirds winning amounts to an at large steal. No one else is capable of beating both the Redbirds and the Shockers back to back and a simultaneous upset of both is very unlikely.
- WCC — BYU might pull it off, but still unlikely to get through both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
- ACC, Big12, Big10, Big East, SEC, and Pac12 are all multi-bid leagues and could thus produce a bubble-burster but a non at-large team winning the tourney champ is so very unlikely that I don’t really count them.