Final Bracket 2017

Seeds:

3-12-17 Final Bracket

Bracket: East & South on one side and Midwest & West on other

2017 Final Bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Purdue 33 Xavier 51 Vermont
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 S Carolina 52 ETSU
3 Gonzaga 19 W Virginia 35 Dayton 53 Bucknell
4 Kentucky 20 Minnesota 36 Arkansas 54 Fla Gulf Coast
5 Arizona 21 Creighton 37 VCU 55 New Mexico St
6 Duke 22 Iowa St 38 Marquette 56 Winthrop
7 N Carolina 23 Wisconsin 39 Seton Hall 57 Iona
8 UCLA 24 Maryland 40 Vanderbilt 58 N Kentucky
9 Baylor 25 Michigan 41 Michigan St 59 Texas So
10 Louisville 26 St. Mary’s 42 Wake Forest 60 Kent St
11 Oregon 27 SMU 43 Kansas St 61 North Dakota
12 Florida 28 Miami 44 Providence 62 Troy
13 Florida St 29 Va Tech 45 Rhode Island 63 UC Davis
14 Notre Dame 30 Oklahoma St 46 USC 64 S Dakota St
15 Virginia 31 Northwestern 47 Mid Ten 65 NC Central
16 Butler 32 Wichita St 48 Nevada 66 Jacksonville St
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Mt St Mary’s
50 Princeton 68 New Orleans

Notes:

  1. Villanova is a lock for #1 overall. Kansas is also a lock for a 1 seed. I think Gonzaga is a lock as well. I think the final slot goes to Kentucky with Arizona, Duke, and N Carolina all right there. I think Arizona and Gonzaga should get paired out west and Duke and Kentucky in the south. N Carolina in the Midwest with Kansas and UCLA in the east with Villanova. I think all of those teams except Gonzaga have a great chance at winning it all.
  2. Tough calls:
    1. Final 1 seed between Kentucky, Duke, N Carolina, and Arizona.
    2. 2 seed: UCLA, Oregon, Baylor, or Louisville. I picked UCLA because of their top road wins and lack of bad losses.
    3. 3 seed: Florida or Florida St? Seminoles beat Gators and have more top 50 wins, but Gators have cleaner resume below top 50. I’m giving Florida a slight edge.
    4. Where to put Butler? Top wins are among the best in nation, but they also have some ugly losses. They’re definitely on the 4-5 cut line.
    5. Where to put Wichita St? Traditional resume says 8-9 seed at best. Predictive ratings say 4-5 seed at worst. Does committee go down the middle with 6 or 7? I think they’ll be 8 or 9 seed. I lean toward 9, but to play for better score I’m going to flop them and Xavier.
    6. Where will they put the last four in? I think they should all fall on the 11 seed line. If Rhode Island and Mid Ten end up on the 11 line, then the last two AL teams will be on the 12 line.
    7. USC or Syracuse? I think it’s pretty clear this is the decision to make for last in. USC has the RPI and Syracuse has the top 50 wins. Illinois St has good RPI but no top 100 wins other than Wich St and New Mexico. I’m giving the nod to USC, because of Syracuse’s bad RPI and bad losses. Orange getting in would be historic.
    8. Getting all the AQ teams seeds right isn’t always easy but can really add to the point total. I’m mostly concerned about the crowded 16 seed line. Which of the seven teams (the six I have + Troy) get the 15?

March 10, 2017

Seeds:

3-10-17 Bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Butler 33 Xavier 51 Princeton
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Northwestern 52 Vermont
3 N Carolina 19 W Virginia 35 Wichita St 53 Akron
4 Gonzaga 20 Minnesota 36 Michigan 54 ETSU
5 UCLA 21 Creighton 37 Marquette 55 Fla Gulf Coast
6 Kentucky 22 Maryland 38 Seton Hall 56 Bucknell
7 Oregon 23 Iowa St 39 USC 57 Winthrop
8 Louisville 24 Miami 40 VCU 58 Cal Baker
9 Baylor 25 Wisconsin 41 Arkansas 59 Texas So
10 Arizona 26 St. Mary’s 42 Wake Forest 60 Iona
11 Duke 27 SMU 43 Vanderbilt 61 N Kentucky
12 Florida 28 Va Tech 44 Kansas St 62 North Dakota
13 Florida St 29 S Carolina 45 Mid Ten 63 S Dakota St
14 Purdue 30 Dayton 46 Providence 64 UC Irvine
15 Notre Dame 31 Oklahoma St 47 Syracuse 65 NC Central
16 Virginia 32 Michigan St 48 Nevada 66 Jacksonville St
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Mt St Mary’s
50 UT-Arlington 68 New Orleans

Notes:

  1. Bubble games yesterday:
    1. Kansas St won, I give them a 90% to be in, another W gives them lock status
    2. Xavier won, they are a lock now
    3. Michigan won wearing practice jerseys, they are a lock. Illinois is out with the L.
    4. Seton Hall beat Marquette possibly putting them on the 9 line, which might be worse than the 10 line. Both are locks to me.
    5. Cal won giving them hope yet.
    6. Iowa lost ending their hopes.
    7. Providence lost. I still think they’re safe.
    8. USC barely lost to UCLA. I think the Trojans are safe.
  2. Bubble games today:
    1. Kansas St vs W Virginia (W and ‘Cats are a lock)
    2. St Bonaventure vs Rhode Island (Rams can’t lose)
    3. Indiana vs Wisconsin (I think Hoosiers have outside chance at playing way in if they can get to B10 final)
    4. TCU vs Iowa St (I give TCU the same small chance as Indiana)
    5. Vandy at Florida (3 wins against the Gators should do it, and L leaves them anxious)
    6. Cal vs Oregon (W and Cal is in, L and I don’t think so)
  3. Providence and Syracuse have remarkably similar resumes:
    1. ProvSyra Comp
    2. I think they’ll be the last two in.
  4. Middle Tennessee might get in as an at large if they lose.
  5. Auto bids today:
    1. None

Bubble Comparison chart:

Bubble Comp 1

March 9, 2017

Seeds:

3-9-17 Bracket

Notes:

  1. Bucknell Bison are dancing.
  2. Syracuse and Wake both lost, USC, Xavier, and Cal all won. I still think Cal is out and the others are in. Illinois St and Rhode Island are, to me, the only ones out who can get in unless Cal, Illinois, or Iowa make big runs. I don’t think the Redbirds stack up well against any of the bubble teams. The Rams compare better, but could really use another win against Dayton. There are no bubble bursters left in my opinion other than the A10. The other conferences have no shot at AL bid or are too strong to allow a non AL bid team to win it.
  3. Bubble games today:
    1. Kansas St vs Baylor (W and in, L and we’ll see)
    2. Xavier vs Butler (Xavier is a lock to me)
    3. Illinois vs Michigan (Illini must keep winning)
    4. Seton Hall vs Marquette (I think they’re both locks)
    5. California vs Utah (Cal can’t lose this one)
    6. Indiana vs Iowa (Iowa can’t lose)
    7. Texas A&M vs Vandy (Vandy can’t lose)
    8. Creighton vs Providence (I think friars are lock, but W will do it for sure)
    9. USC vs UCLA (see note on Providence)
  4. Auto bids today: none

March 8, 2017

Seeds:

3-8-17 Bracket

Notes:

  1. Bubble games today:
    1. Miami vs. Syracuse (L puts ‘Cuse in jeopardy)
    2. Oregon St vs California (L and Cal is done, but I think they’re done anyway)
    3. Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech (W and Wake is in, L and not so sure)
    4. DePaul vs Xavier (I think Xavier is safe, but a L here will make it much more tenuous)
    5. Washington vs USC (See note on Xavier)
  2. Auto Bids today:
    1. Patriot: Lehigh vs Bucknell (Winner is likely a 14 seed)

March 7, 2017

Seeds:

3-7-17 Bracket

Notes:

  1. Down go the Coyotes. I think the Jackrabbits might take the Summit.
  2. ETSU, UNC-Wilm, and Iona all locked up bids
  3. Tuesday auto bids:
    1. Horizon: 4 seed vs. 10 seed.
    2. WCC: Both are dancing, who will get the auto?
    3. Northeast: Playing for a spot in Dayton and a chance to make hist…er…get destroyed by Kansas or Villanova.
    4. Summit: Probably going to be right on edge of 15/16 spot. There are a lot of baaaaad auto bids this year it seems.

March 6, 2017

Seeds:

3-6-17 Bracket.png

Rankings:

1 Kansas 17 Cincinnati 33 Dayton 51 Princeton
2 Villanova 18 Notre Dame 34 Wichita St 52 Vermont
3 Gonzaga 19 W Virginia 35 Marquette 53 Akron
4 N Carolina 20 Minnesota 36 Michigan 54 ETSU
5 UCLA 21 Creighton 37 Xavier 55 Fla Gulf Coast
6 Louisville 22 Maryland 38 USC 56 Bucknell
7 Kentucky 23 Miami 39 Seton Hall 57 Winthrop
8 Baylor 24 Wisconsin 40 VCU 58 Cal Baker
9 Oregon 25 Iowa St 41 Arkansas 59 S Dakota
10 Arizona 26 St. Mary’s 42 Providence 60 Texas So
11 Duke 27 S Carolina 43 Syracuse 61 Iona
12 Florida 28 Va Tech 44 Kansas St 62 N Kentucky
13 Florida St 29 SMU 45 Wake Forest 63 North Dakota
14 Purdue 30 Oklahoma St 46 Vanderbilt 64 UC Irvine
15 Virginia 31 Michigan St 47 Mid Ten 65 NC Central
16 Butler 32 Northwestern 48 Nevada 66 Jacksonville St
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Mt St Mary’s
50 UT-Arlington 68 New Orleans

Notes:

  1. Four teams are dancing: Wichita St, Jacksonville St, Winthrop, and Fla Gulf Coast. Jacksonville St is almost certainly a 16 seed and probably headed to Dayton. Shockers are probably in the 7-10 seed range, but their resume is just really thin. Their ratings are good, but they have just 2 top 100 wins.  Winthrop will be 14 or 15 seed and FGC a 13 or 14 seed.
  2. Belmont, Valpo, Oakland, UNC-Asheville, and Monmouth were all claimed by madness.
  3. Bubble winners: Syracuse, Kansas St, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
  4. Bubble losers: Illinois St, California, Illinois
  5. Redbirds have an uncomfortably long wait until Sunday. I don’t think they’ll get in. They’re 2-3 against the top 100 and have two losses to 100+. Their RPI is great, but I just don’t think that’ll be good enough this time.
  6. Kansas has the inside track on #1 overall seed, though if they lose and Nova wins out I think it will go to the defending champs. Kansas and Nova are 1 seed locks. I think Gonzaga is a safe 1 seed as well, with the fourth going to UNC, UCLA, Louisville, or Kentucky. Kansas will be in KC, guaranteed. Nova in New York guaranteed. Gonzaga will get San Jose, and UNC (probably) Memphis.
  7. Safely in: All teams Providence and above
  8. Sweating it out: Syracuse, Kansas St, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois, California, Illinois St, Rhode Island, Iowa

March 3, 2017

Seeds:

3-3-17-bracket

Notes:

  1. Louisville and N Carolina swapped seeds because Cards lost to Deacons.
  2. Wisconsin remains 4 seed, but dropped a couple spots in rankings
  3. Cal is out after that embarrassing loss. Wake is in.
  4. UNC-Asheville is out after the upset. I love the madness!

March 2, 2017

Seeds:

3-2-17-bracket

Notes:

  1. Still in contention: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, and Rhode Island.
  2. Illinois, Syracuse, Kansas St, and Wake Forest all have very similar resumes. They’re last few games will likely determine whether they make it in. Vanderbilt isn’t too far behind. I think that’s it among high major candidates. I think the rest are done.
  3. Along side them are Illinois State and Rhode Island. I think both are likely out as at-large teams because they’re resumes just don’t stack up to the other four teams. They compare to a Monmouth team from last year that didn’t make it in. I think they only get in as at large teams if past sentiment towards the little guys sways this year’s committee.
  4. I only see these conferences as bubble-bursters:
    1. AAC — Houston, UCF, UConn, or Memphis are probably good enough to make a run and then it’d be SMU, Cinci, and the auto bid.
    2. A10 — Rhode Island and Richmond could win the auto bid and steal a bubble spot. I don’t think the Rams will get an at-large bid, but Dayton and VCU both look safe.
    3. MoVal — Wichita St looks safe. Illinois St not so much. I think the Redbirds winning amounts to an at large steal. No one else is capable of beating both the Redbirds and the Shockers back to back and a simultaneous upset of both is very unlikely.
    4. WCC — BYU might pull it off, but still unlikely to get through both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
    5. ACC, Big12, Big10, Big East, SEC, and Pac12 are all multi-bid leagues and could thus produce a bubble-burster but a non at-large team winning the tourney champ is so very unlikely that I don’t really count them.