Seeds:

Bracket: East & South on one side and Midwest & West on other

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Purdue	33	Xavier	51	Vermont
2	Kansas	18	Cincinnati	34	S Carolina	52	ETSU
3	Gonzaga	19	W Virginia	35	Dayton	53	Bucknell
4	Kentucky	20	Minnesota	36	Arkansas	54	Fla Gulf Coast
5	Arizona	21	Creighton	37	VCU	55	New Mexico St
6	Duke	22	Iowa St	38	Marquette	56	Winthrop
7	N Carolina	23	Wisconsin	39	Seton Hall	57	Iona
8	UCLA	24	Maryland	40	Vanderbilt	58	N Kentucky
9	Baylor	25	Michigan	41	Michigan St	59	Texas So
10	Louisville	26	St. Mary’s	42	Wake Forest	60	Kent St
11	Oregon	27	SMU	43	Kansas St	61	North Dakota
12	Florida	28	Miami	44	Providence	62	Troy
13	Florida St	29	Va Tech	45	Rhode Island	63	UC Davis
14	Notre Dame	30	Oklahoma St	46	USC	64	S Dakota St
15	Virginia	31	Northwestern	47	Mid Ten	65	NC Central
16	Butler	32	Wichita St	48	Nevada	66	Jacksonville St
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Mt St Mary’s
				50	Princeton	68	New Orleans

Notes:

1. Villanova is a lock for #1 overall. Kansas is also a lock for a 1 seed. I think Gonzaga is a lock as well. I think the final slot goes to Kentucky with Arizona, Duke, and N Carolina all right there. I think Arizona and Gonzaga should get paired out west and Duke and Kentucky in the south. N Carolina in the Midwest with Kansas and UCLA in the east with Villanova. I think all of those teams except Gonzaga have a great chance at winning it all.
2. Tough calls:
   1. Final 1 seed between Kentucky, Duke, N Carolina, and Arizona.
   2. 2 seed: UCLA, Oregon, Baylor, or Louisville. I picked UCLA because of their top road wins and lack of bad losses.
   3. 3 seed: Florida or Florida St? Seminoles beat Gators and have more top 50 wins, but Gators have cleaner resume below top 50. I’m giving Florida a slight edge.
   4. Where to put Butler? Top wins are among the best in nation, but they also have some ugly losses. They’re definitely on the 4-5 cut line.
   5. Where to put Wichita St? Traditional resume says 8-9 seed at best. Predictive ratings say 4-5 seed at worst. Does committee go down the middle with 6 or 7? I think they’ll be 8 or 9 seed. I lean toward 9, but to play for better score I’m going to flop them and Xavier.
   6. Where will they put the last four in? I think they should all fall on the 11 seed line. If Rhode Island and Mid Ten end up on the 11 line, then the last two AL teams will be on the 12 line.
   7. USC or Syracuse? I think it’s pretty clear this is the decision to make for last in. USC has the RPI and Syracuse has the top 50 wins. Illinois St has good RPI but no top 100 wins other than Wich St and New Mexico. I’m giving the nod to USC, because of Syracuse’s bad RPI and bad losses. Orange getting in would be historic.
   8. Getting all the AQ teams seeds right isn’t always easy but can really add to the point total. I’m mostly concerned about the crowded 16 seed line. Which of the seven teams (the six I have + Troy) get the 15?

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Butler	33	Xavier	51	Princeton
2	Kansas	18	Cincinnati	34	Northwestern	52	Vermont
3	N Carolina	19	W Virginia	35	Wichita St	53	Akron
4	Gonzaga	20	Minnesota	36	Michigan	54	ETSU
5	UCLA	21	Creighton	37	Marquette	55	Fla Gulf Coast
6	Kentucky	22	Maryland	38	Seton Hall	56	Bucknell
7	Oregon	23	Iowa St	39	USC	57	Winthrop
8	Louisville	24	Miami	40	VCU	58	Cal Baker
9	Baylor	25	Wisconsin	41	Arkansas	59	Texas So
10	Arizona	26	St. Mary’s	42	Wake Forest	60	Iona
11	Duke	27	SMU	43	Vanderbilt	61	N Kentucky
12	Florida	28	Va Tech	44	Kansas St	62	North Dakota
13	Florida St	29	S Carolina	45	Mid Ten	63	S Dakota St
14	Purdue	30	Dayton	46	Providence	64	UC Irvine
15	Notre Dame	31	Oklahoma St	47	Syracuse	65	NC Central
16	Virginia	32	Michigan St	48	Nevada	66	Jacksonville St
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Mt St Mary’s
				50	UT-Arlington	68	New Orleans

Notes:

1. Bubble games yesterday:
   1. Kansas St won, I give them a 90% to be in, another W gives them lock status
   2. Xavier won, they are a lock now
   3. Michigan won wearing practice jerseys, they are a lock. Illinois is out with the L.
   4. Seton Hall beat Marquette possibly putting them on the 9 line, which might be worse than the 10 line. Both are locks to me.
   5. Cal won giving them hope yet.
   6. Iowa lost ending their hopes.
   7. Providence lost. I still think they’re safe.
   8. USC barely lost to UCLA. I think the Trojans are safe.
2. Bubble games today:
   1. Kansas St vs W Virginia (W and ‘Cats are a lock)
   2. St Bonaventure vs Rhode Island (Rams can’t lose)
   3. Indiana vs Wisconsin (I think Hoosiers have outside chance at playing way in if they can get to B10 final)
   4. TCU vs Iowa St (I give TCU the same small chance as Indiana)
   5. Vandy at Florida (3 wins against the Gators should do it, and L leaves them anxious)
   6. Cal vs Oregon (W and Cal is in, L and I don’t think so)
3. Providence and Syracuse have remarkably similar resumes:
   1. 
   2. I think they’ll be the last two in.
4. Middle Tennessee might get in as an at large if they lose.
5. Auto bids today:
   1. None

Bubble Comparison chart:

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Bucknell Bison are dancing.
2. Syracuse and Wake both lost, USC, Xavier, and Cal all won. I still think Cal is out and the others are in. Illinois St and Rhode Island are, to me, the only ones out who can get in unless Cal, Illinois, or Iowa make big runs. I don’t think the Redbirds stack up well against any of the bubble teams. The Rams compare better, but could really use another win against Dayton. There are no bubble bursters left in my opinion other than the A10. The other conferences have no shot at AL bid or are too strong to allow a non AL bid team to win it.
3. Bubble games today:
   1. Kansas St vs Baylor (W and in, L and we’ll see)
   2. Xavier vs Butler (Xavier is a lock to me)
   3. Illinois vs Michigan (Illini must keep winning)
   4. Seton Hall vs Marquette (I think they’re both locks)
   5. California vs Utah (Cal can’t lose this one)
   6. Indiana vs Iowa (Iowa can’t lose)
   7. Texas A&M vs Vandy (Vandy can’t lose)
   8. Creighton vs Providence (I think friars are lock, but W will do it for sure)
   9. USC vs UCLA (see note on Providence)
4. Auto bids today: none

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Bubble games today:
   1. Miami vs. Syracuse (L puts ‘Cuse in jeopardy)
   2. Oregon St vs California (L and Cal is done, but I think they’re done anyway)
   3. Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech (W and Wake is in, L and not so sure)
   4. DePaul vs Xavier (I think Xavier is safe, but a L here will make it much more tenuous)
   5. Washington vs USC (See note on Xavier)
2. Auto Bids today:
   1. Patriot: Lehigh vs Bucknell (Winner is likely a 14 seed)

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Down go the Coyotes. I think the Jackrabbits might take the Summit.
2. ETSU, UNC-Wilm, and Iona all locked up bids
3. Tuesday auto bids:
   1. Horizon: 4 seed vs. 10 seed.
   2. WCC: Both are dancing, who will get the auto?
   3. Northeast: Playing for a spot in Dayton and a chance to make hist…er…get destroyed by Kansas or Villanova.
   4. Summit: Probably going to be right on edge of 15/16 spot. There are a lot of baaaaad auto bids this year it seems.

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Kansas	17	Cincinnati	33	Dayton	51	Princeton
2	Villanova	18	Notre Dame	34	Wichita St	52	Vermont
3	Gonzaga	19	W Virginia	35	Marquette	53	Akron
4	N Carolina	20	Minnesota	36	Michigan	54	ETSU
5	UCLA	21	Creighton	37	Xavier	55	Fla Gulf Coast
6	Louisville	22	Maryland	38	USC	56	Bucknell
7	Kentucky	23	Miami	39	Seton Hall	57	Winthrop
8	Baylor	24	Wisconsin	40	VCU	58	Cal Baker
9	Oregon	25	Iowa St	41	Arkansas	59	S Dakota
10	Arizona	26	St. Mary’s	42	Providence	60	Texas So
11	Duke	27	S Carolina	43	Syracuse	61	Iona
12	Florida	28	Va Tech	44	Kansas St	62	N Kentucky
13	Florida St	29	SMU	45	Wake Forest	63	North Dakota
14	Purdue	30	Oklahoma St	46	Vanderbilt	64	UC Irvine
15	Virginia	31	Michigan St	47	Mid Ten	65	NC Central
16	Butler	32	Northwestern	48	Nevada	66	Jacksonville St
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Mt St Mary’s
				50	UT-Arlington	68	New Orleans

Notes:

1. Four teams are dancing: Wichita St, Jacksonville St, Winthrop, and Fla Gulf Coast. Jacksonville St is almost certainly a 16 seed and probably headed to Dayton. Shockers are probably in the 7-10 seed range, but their resume is just really thin. Their ratings are good, but they have just 2 top 100 wins.  Winthrop will be 14 or 15 seed and FGC a 13 or 14 seed.
2. Belmont, Valpo, Oakland, UNC-Asheville, and Monmouth were all claimed by madness.
3. Bubble winners: Syracuse, Kansas St, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
4. Bubble losers: Illinois St, California, Illinois
5. Redbirds have an uncomfortably long wait until Sunday. I don’t think they’ll get in. They’re 2-3 against the top 100 and have two losses to 100+. Their RPI is great, but I just don’t think that’ll be good enough this time.
6. Kansas has the inside track on #1 overall seed, though if they lose and Nova wins out I think it will go to the defending champs. Kansas and Nova are 1 seed locks. I think Gonzaga is a safe 1 seed as well, with the fourth going to UNC, UCLA, Louisville, or Kentucky. Kansas will be in KC, guaranteed. Nova in New York guaranteed. Gonzaga will get San Jose, and UNC (probably) Memphis.
7. Safely in: All teams Providence and above
8. Sweating it out: Syracuse, Kansas St, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois, California, Illinois St, Rhode Island, Iowa

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Louisville and N Carolina swapped seeds because Cards lost to Deacons.
2. Wisconsin remains 4 seed, but dropped a couple spots in rankings
3. Cal is out after that embarrassing loss. Wake is in.
4. UNC-Asheville is out after the upset. I love the madness!

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Still in contention: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Illinois State, and Rhode Island.
2. Illinois, Syracuse, Kansas St, and Wake Forest all have very similar resumes. They’re last few games will likely determine whether they make it in. Vanderbilt isn’t too far behind. I think that’s it among high major candidates. I think the rest are done.
3. Along side them are Illinois State and Rhode Island. I think both are likely out as at-large teams because they’re resumes just don’t stack up to the other four teams. They compare to a Monmouth team from last year that didn’t make it in. I think they only get in as at large teams if past sentiment towards the little guys sways this year’s committee.
4. I only see these conferences as bubble-bursters:
   1. AAC — Houston, UCF, UConn, or Memphis are probably good enough to make a run and then it’d be SMU, Cinci, and the auto bid.
   2. A10 — Rhode Island and Richmond could win the auto bid and steal a bubble spot. I don’t think the Rams will get an at-large bid, but Dayton and VCU both look safe.
   3. MoVal — Wichita St looks safe. Illinois St not so much. I think the Redbirds winning amounts to an at large steal. No one else is capable of beating both the Redbirds and the Shockers back to back and a simultaneous upset of both is very unlikely.
   4. WCC — BYU might pull it off, but still unlikely to get through both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
   5. ACC, Big12, Big10, Big East, SEC, and Pac12 are all multi-bid leagues and could thus produce a bubble-burster but a non at-large team winning the tourney champ is so very unlikely that I don’t really count them.

Seeds:

Notes:

1. Missed opportunity for Vandy
2. Duke and Fla St swapped spots
3. Indiana for sure needs auto bid now