February 13, 2017

Seeds:

2-13-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Creighton 33 Dayton 51 UT-Arlington
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Kansas St 52 Boise St
3 Baylor 19 Notre Dame 35 Oklahoma St 53 Valpo
4 Gonzaga 20 Butler 36 Miami 54 Vermont
5 N Carolina 21 Wisconsin 37 Iowa St 55 Princeton
6 Louisville 22 Maryland 38 Michigan St 56 Belmont
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 Michigan 57 UNC-Ash
8 Arizona 24 Northwestern 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Florida St 25 Va Tech 41 Tennessee 59 Furman
10 Florida 26 USC 42 Syracuse 60 N Dakota St
11 Kentucky 27 S Carolina 43 Wake Forest 61 Cal-Baker
12 Virginia 28 Minnesota 44 Wichita St 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 Duke 29 SMU 45 Clemson 63 Texas So
14 UCLA 30 St. Mary’s 46 Pittsburgh 64 New Orleans
15 W Virginia 31 TCU 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 Purdue 32 VCU 48 Akron 66 UC Davis
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Weber St
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The RPI is back! I thought the committee was moving away from the RPI, but based on their top 16, they still weigh it heavily. I had to shake up my 16 to match theirs. I wish I could see their bubble!
  2. The ACC has a mess of bubble teams with terrible records because of their tough schedule. It’s gonna be difficult to determine who gets in and who doesn’t.
  3. Non-power conference teams are really down this year. I see few opportunities for bubble bursting auto seeds. Which means many not-so-good bubble teams will get in when they otherwise wouldn’t and the heartbreak will be mostly reserved for the regular season champs who lose the conference tourney.
  4. I still don’t feel good about teams from TCU downward. I feel way less certain than in years past. I don’t know what the committee is going to do.
  5. Chance to enhance review = missed chances:
    1. Clemson lost both
    2. Kansas St lost both
    3. Miami beat Va Tech and lost a close one to Louisville
  6. Bubble games to watch this week (winner in bold):
    1. Louisville at Syracuse
    2. Wake Forest at Clemson
    3. Va Tech at Pittsburgh
    4. Arkansas at South Carolina
    5. Iowa State at Kansas State
    6. Providence at Xavier
    7. Georgia Tech at Miami
    8. Creighton at Seton Hall
    9. Indiana at Minnesota
    10. Oklahoma St at TCU
    11. Wisconsin at Michigan
    12. Clemson at Miami
    13. Villanova at Seton Hall
    14. Wake Forest at Duke
    15. Va Tech at Louisville
    16. Michigan State at Purdue
    17. Florida State at Pittsburgh
    18. TCU at Iowa State
    19. Xavier at Marquette
    20. Georgetown at Creighton
    21. Syracuse at Georgia Tech
    22. Michigan at Minnesota
  7. I’m not confident that the MoVal loser will get in, but I think Wichita State has a better chance of making it as an at large. Illinois St has better RPI, but 3 bad losses. Wichita St has no bad losses and each team’s only top 50 win is against each other at home. The problem for the Shockers is that a loss to the Redbirds might do them in.

2 thoughts on “February 13, 2017

  1. Chris February 13, 2017 / 9:50 pm

    The committee isn’t moving to new metrics until the next season. Glad to see you place VCU.

    I think an often overlooked metric is RPI top 50 wins with respect to opportunities. For example VCU, Cincy and Miami all have 2 top 50 wins, however VCU has only had 3 chances vs. the top 50, where as Cincy has had 5 chances, and Miami has had 8 chances. if VCU had 8 chances against the top 50 they would probably have 4 or 5 quality wins, mid major teams can’t afford the same opportunities and are punished for it, like last years St. Bona team had a 30 RPI and got snubbed.

    Overall I feel all metrics and ratings systems favor the power five conferences too heavily. Favoring the top conferences is bad for the game in the long run in my opinion, but it’s a difficult bias to overcome. I think the ideal long term solution is a much short in conference schedule and a longer out of conference schedule.

    I just think a tourney with 30+ teams from 3 conferences is lame. VCU’s first tourney game last year was against an Oregon State team that would have had their asses handed to them in the A10, but they were overrated because they play in a P5 conference

    Like

  2. thisaintbracketscience February 15, 2017 / 4:55 pm

    Yeah, I don’t disagree, though I’m not sure what VCU would do if they had more opportunities. They squeaked out a couple of wins against less than great opponents. The P5 teams also tend to avoid playing the top mid-majors. We’re stuck with figuring out whether the committee will favor the “untested” team or the heavily “tested” team that is also heavily beaten.

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