Once again, the non P5 schools are hard to place because of the lack of comparative schedules.
The bubble is taking better shape. I feel pretty good that Michigan on up are in safely barring unexpected losses. They’re are also fewer competitors for the spots below them. Illinois State, Rhode Island, and Mid Ten are interesting. Not great resumes, but are they as bad as a TCU or Wake Forest? Hard to say.
Games I’m keeping track of this week:
N Carolina at Virginia (one seed in play for heels)
W Virginia at Baylor (fighting for top 4 seed)
Miami at VirginiaTech (Va Tech could lock it up!)
Georgetown at Seton Hall (Pirates in mustn’t lose territory)
Indiana at Purdue (Hoosiers need big run, still may not be enough)
Florida St at Duke (battle for the 3 seed)
DePaul at Providence (Friars can’t lose this one)
Oklahoma St at IowaSt (battle for a 7 seed)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (win and ‘dores are in, lose and they’re out)
KansasSt. at TCU (both likely out, but neither can afford to lose)
Michigan at Northwestern (both in good shape, but cats are reeling and need home win)
Arkansas at Florida (win and hogs are in)
RhodeIsland at St. Joe’s (Rams can’t lose)
VCU at Dayton (winner feels good about at-large, loser will sweat a bit)
Michigan St at Illinois (Spartans look safe, but let’s not jeopardize it, eh?)
Louisville at Wake Forest (Deacons need the win to get in)
Marquette at Xavier (winner feels safe, loser sweats a bit)
Houston at Cincinnati (Cougars have a prayer with win)
Cal at Utah (Gonna be tough for the bears, but they can’t afford to lose)
Indiana at Ohio St (Hoos’ can’t lose)
Providence at Rutgers (Friars can’t lose)
Florida at Vanderbilt (golden opportunity for ‘dores this week, but one loss might finish them)
Georgia at Arkansas (hogs better win at home)
George Mason at VCU
Cal at Colorado (all mountains all week for bears)
Michigan St at Maryland (big game for seeding)
Seton Hall at Butler (winx2 this week and pirates are in)
Creighton at Marquette (winx2 and eagles are in)
TCU at Oklahoma (frogs can’t lose)
Ga Tech at Syracuse (Cuse can’t lose)
Kansas at Oklahoma St (‘boys are safe if they win this ‘un)
Davidson at Rhode Island
Colorado St at Nevada (Mtn West at stake)
S Carolina at Ole Miss (game better win to be safe)
UC Davis at UC Irvine (Battle in the big west)
Purdue at Northwestern (big week for cats)
Michigan at Nebraska (can’t lose twice this week and feel safe)
Saturday and Sunday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
Ohio Valley: Belmont: 1
Atl Sun: FGC: 1
Big South: UNC-Ash: 1
MoVal: Wichita St: 2: possible bubble burster if anyone other than Shockers (or Redbirds) win
The RPI is back! I thought the committee was moving away from the RPI, but based on their top 16, they still weigh it heavily. I had to shake up my 16 to match theirs. I wish I could see their bubble!
The ACC has a mess of bubble teams with terrible records because of their tough schedule. It’s gonna be difficult to determine who gets in and who doesn’t.
Non-power conference teams are really down this year. I see few opportunities for bubble bursting auto seeds. Which means many not-so-good bubble teams will get in when they otherwise wouldn’t and the heartbreak will be mostly reserved for the regular season champs who lose the conference tourney.
I still don’t feel good about teams from TCU downward. I feel way less certain than in years past. I don’t know what the committee is going to do.
Chance to enhance review = missed chances:
Clemson lost both
Kansas St lost both
Miami beat Va Tech and lost a close one to Louisville
Bubble games to watch this week (winner in bold):
Louisville at Syracuse
Wake Forest at Clemson
Va Tech at Pittsburgh
Arkansas at South Carolina
Iowa State at Kansas State
Providence at Xavier
Georgia Tech at Miami
Creighton at Seton Hall
Indiana at Minnesota
Oklahoma St at TCU
Wisconsin at Michigan
Clemson at Miami
Villanova at Seton Hall
Wake Forest at Duke
Va Tech at Louisville
Michigan State at Purdue
Florida State at Pittsburgh
TCU at Iowa State
Xavier at Marquette
Georgetown at Creighton
Syracuse at Georgia Tech
Michigan at Minnesota
I’m not confident that the MoVal loser will get in, but I think Wichita State has a better chance of making it as an at large. Illinois St has better RPI, but 3 bad losses. Wichita St has no bad losses and each team’s only top 50 win is against each other at home. The problem for the Shockers is that a loss to the Redbirds might do them in.