Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Kansas	17	Cincinnati	33	Wichita St	51	UT-Arlington
2	Villanova	18	Creighton	34	Xavier	52	Nevada
3	Gonzaga	19	Notre Dame	35	Northwestern	53	Valpo
4	Louisville	20	W Virginia	36	VCU	54	Vermont
5	N Carolina	21	Minnesota	37	Dayton	55	Princeton
6	UCLA	22	Wisconsin	38	Michigan	56	Belmont
7	Kentucky	23	Maryland	39	Arkansas	57	UNC-Ash
8	Oregon	24	Miami	40	California	58	Bucknell
9	Baylor	25	S Carolina	41	Providence	59	ETSU
10	Arizona	26	Iowa St	42	Marquette	60	Cal Baker
11	Florida	27	Oklahoma St	43	Seton Hall	61	Fla Gulf Coast
12	Florida St	28	Michigan St	44	Syracuse	62	S Dakota
13	Duke	29	Va Tech	45	Vanderbilt	63	Texas So
14	Purdue	30	USC	46	Illinois State	64	New Orleans
15	Virginia	31	St. Mary’s	47	Mid Ten	65	Mt St Mary’s
16	Butler	32	SMU	48	Akron	66	UC Irvine
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	N Dakota
				50	Monmouth	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. Once again, the non P5 schools are hard to place because of the lack of comparative schedules.
2. The bubble is taking better shape. I feel pretty good that Michigan on up are in safely barring unexpected losses. They’re are also fewer competitors for the spots below them. Illinois State, Rhode Island, and Mid Ten are interesting. Not great resumes, but are they as bad as a TCU or Wake Forest? Hard to say.
3. Games I’m keeping track of this week:
   1. N Carolina at Virginia (one seed in play for heels)
   2. W Virginia at Baylor (fighting for top 4 seed)
   3. Miami at Virginia Tech (Va Tech could lock it up!)
   4. Georgetown at Seton Hall (Pirates in mustn’t lose territory)
   5. Indiana at Purdue (Hoosiers need big run, still may not be enough)
   6. Florida St at Duke (battle for the 3 seed)
   7. DePaul at Providence (Friars can’t lose this one)
   8. Oklahoma St at Iowa St (battle for a 7 seed)
   9. Vanderbilt at Kentucky (win and ‘dores are in, lose and they’re out)
   10. Kansas St. at TCU (both likely out, but neither can afford to lose)
   11. Michigan at Northwestern (both in good shape, but cats are reeling and need home win)
   12. Arkansas at Florida (win and hogs are in)
   13. Rhode Island at St. Joe’s (Rams can’t lose)
   14. VCU at Dayton (winner feels good about at-large, loser will sweat a bit)
   15. Michigan St at Illinois (Spartans look safe, but let’s not jeopardize it, eh?)
   16. Louisville at Wake Forest (Deacons need the win to get in)
   17. Marquette at Xavier (winner feels safe, loser sweats a bit)
   18. Houston at Cincinnati (Cougars have a prayer with win)
   19. Cal at Utah (Gonna be tough for the bears, but they can’t afford to lose)
   20. Indiana at Ohio St (Hoos’ can’t lose)
   21. Providence at Rutgers (Friars can’t lose)
   22. Florida at Vanderbilt (golden opportunity for ‘dores this week, but one loss might finish them)
   23. Georgia at Arkansas (hogs better win at home)
   24. George Mason at VCU
   25. Cal at Colorado (all mountains all week for bears)
   26. Michigan St at Maryland (big game for seeding)
   27. Seton Hall at Butler (winx2 this week and pirates are in)
   28. Creighton at Marquette (winx2 and eagles are in)
   29. TCU at Oklahoma (frogs can’t lose)
   30. Ga Tech at Syracuse (Cuse can’t lose)
   31. Kansas at Oklahoma St (‘boys are safe if they win this ‘un)
   32. Davidson at Rhode Island
   33. Colorado St at Nevada (Mtn West at stake)
   34. S Carolina at Ole Miss (game better win to be safe)
   35. UC Davis at UC Irvine (Battle in the big west)
   36. Purdue at Northwestern (big week for cats)
   37. Michigan at Nebraska (can’t lose twice this week and feel safe)
4. Saturday and Sunday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
   1. Ohio Valley: Belmont: 1
   2. Atl Sun: FGC: 1
   3. Big South: UNC-Ash: 1
   4. MoVal: Wichita St: 2: possible bubble burster if anyone other than Shockers (or Redbirds) win
5. Monday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
   1. Colonial: UNC-Wilm: 1
   2. MAAC: Monmouth: 1
   3. Southern: ETSU: 1

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Creighton	33	Iowa St	51	UT-Arlington
2	Kansas	18	Cincinnati	34	Oklahoma St	52	Nevada
3	Gonzaga	19	Notre Dame	35	Dayton	53	Valpo
4	Baylor	20	Wisconsin	36	Michigan St	54	Vermont
5	Louisville	21	Butler	37	Michigan	55	Princeton
6	N Carolina	22	Maryland	38	Kansas St	56	Belmont
7	Oregon	23	Xavier	39	TCU	57	UNC-Ash
8	Arizona	24	Minnesota	40	California	58	Bucknell
9	Florida	25	Northwestern	41	Wichita St	59	Furman
10	Kentucky	26	USC	42	Arkansas	60	N Dakota St
11	Florida St	27	Va Tech	43	Tennessee	61	Cal-Baker
12	Duke	28	S Carolina	44	Marquette	62	Fla Gulf Coast
13	UCLA	29	St. Mary’s	45	Seton Hall	63	Texas So
14	Purdue	30	SMU	46	Georgia Tech	64	New Orleans
15	Virginia	31	VCU	47	Mid Ten	65	Mt St Mary’s
16	W Virginia	32	Miami	48	Akron	66	UC Irvine
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	North Dakota
				50	Monmouth	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. Still astonished how weak the bubble teams are resume-wise.
2. Conference finishes to watch
   1. ACC — I can still see Louisville or UNC jumping up to a 1 seed and Duke or Florida St jumping up to a 2 seed. Should be fun to watch. Still to come:
      1. Louisville vs. UNC
      2. Florida St vs. Duke
      3. Duke vs. UNC
   2. SEC — Florida and Kentucky are duking it out for the 3 seed and maybe 2 seed.
      1. Kentucky vs. Florida this Saturday
   3. Pac12 — Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA?
      1. UCLA vs. Arizona Saturday
   4. Mo Valley — Wichita St and Illinois St in Arch Madness finale.
   5. A10 — VCU vs. Dayton next Wednesday. Neither loser will feel too good about at large, though I think both will make it, unless they drop other games.
3. Bubble games this week:
   1. Iowa St at Texas Tech
   2. Clemson at Virginia Tech
   3. NC State at Georgia Tech
   4. St. John’s at Marquette
   5. Vanderbilt at Tennessee (both are in must not lose situations)
   6. Michigan at Rutgers
   7. Duke at Syracuse (cuse need this one badly)
   8. TCU at Kansas (win and frogs are in)
   9. Xavier at Seton Hall
   10. Pittsburgh at Wake Forest
   11. Texas A&M at Arkansas
   12. Oregon at Cal (win and Bears are in)
   13. Oklahoma St at Kansas St (‘cats can’t lost this one)
   14. Nebraska at Michigan St
   15. Florida St at Clemson (tigers need this one badly)
   16. UNC at Pittsburgh (Panthers need this one badly)
   17. Tennessee at South Carolina
   18. West Virginia at TCU (big week for the frogs)
   19. Texas Tech at Oklahoma St
   20. Miss St at Vandy
   21. Purdue at Michigan
   22. Baylor at Iowa St (win puts clones in)
   23. Kansas St at Oklahoma (another must win for ‘cats)
   24. Arkansas at Auburn
   25. Syracuse at Louisville (two wins for cuse this week and they’re in)
   26. Wisconsin at Michigan St (win and Sparty is in)
   27. Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Creighton	33	Dayton	51	UT-Arlington
2	Kansas	18	Cincinnati	34	Kansas St	52	Boise St
3	Baylor	19	Notre Dame	35	Oklahoma St	53	Valpo
4	Gonzaga	20	Butler	36	Miami	54	Vermont
5	N Carolina	21	Wisconsin	37	Iowa St	55	Princeton
6	Louisville	22	Maryland	38	Michigan St	56	Belmont
7	Oregon	23	Xavier	39	Michigan	57	UNC-Ash
8	Arizona	24	Northwestern	40	California	58	Bucknell
9	Florida St	25	Va Tech	41	Tennessee	59	Furman
10	Florida	26	USC	42	Syracuse	60	N Dakota St
11	Kentucky	27	S Carolina	43	Wake Forest	61	Cal-Baker
12	Virginia	28	Minnesota	44	Wichita St	62	Fla Gulf Coast
13	Duke	29	SMU	45	Clemson	63	Texas So
14	UCLA	30	St. Mary’s	46	Pittsburgh	64	New Orleans
15	W Virginia	31	TCU	47	Mid Ten	65	Mt St Mary’s
16	Purdue	32	VCU	48	Akron	66	UC Davis
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Weber St
				50	Monmouth	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. The RPI is back! I thought the committee was moving away from the RPI, but based on their top 16, they still weigh it heavily. I had to shake up my 16 to match theirs. I wish I could see their bubble!
2. The ACC has a mess of bubble teams with terrible records because of their tough schedule. It’s gonna be difficult to determine who gets in and who doesn’t.
3. Non-power conference teams are really down this year. I see few opportunities for bubble bursting auto seeds. Which means many not-so-good bubble teams will get in when they otherwise wouldn’t and the heartbreak will be mostly reserved for the regular season champs who lose the conference tourney.
4. I still don’t feel good about teams from TCU downward. I feel way less certain than in years past. I don’t know what the committee is going to do.
5. Chance to enhance review = missed chances:
   1. Clemson lost both
   2. Kansas St lost both
   3. Miami beat Va Tech and lost a close one to Louisville
6. Bubble games to watch this week (winner in bold):
   1. Louisville at Syracuse
   2. Wake Forest at Clemson
   3. Va Tech at Pittsburgh
   4. Arkansas at South Carolina
   5. Iowa State at Kansas State
   6. Providence at Xavier
   7. Georgia Tech at Miami
   8. Creighton at Seton Hall
   9. Indiana at Minnesota
   10. Oklahoma St at TCU
   11. Wisconsin at Michigan
   12. Clemson at Miami
   13. Villanova at Seton Hall
   14. Wake Forest at Duke
   15. Va Tech at Louisville
   16. Michigan State at Purdue
   17. Florida State at Pittsburgh
   18. TCU at Iowa State
   19. Xavier at Marquette
   20. Georgetown at Creighton
   21. Syracuse at Georgia Tech
   22. Michigan at Minnesota
7. I’m not confident that the MoVal loser will get in, but I think Wichita State has a better chance of making it as an at large. Illinois St has better RPI, but 3 bad losses. Wichita St has no bad losses and each team’s only top 50 win is against each other at home. The problem for the Shockers is that a loss to the Redbirds might do them in.

Seeds:

Rankings:

1	Villanova	17	Cincinnati	33	Iowa St	51	Akron
2	Baylor	18	Purdue	34	Dayton	52	Winthrop
3	Gonzaga	19	Wisconsin	35	Indiana	53	Fla Gulf Coast
4	Kansas	20	Creighton	36	Marquette	54	Monmouth
5	Louisville	21	Maryland	37	Seton Hall	55	New Mex St
6	Kentucky	22	Florida	38	Michigan St	56	Ark St
7	Oregon	23	Xavier	39	Tennessee	57	Princeton
8	Arizona	24	St. Mary’s	40	Oklahoma St	58	Vermont
9	N Carolina	25	Northwestern	41	Miami	59	Bucknell
10	Florida St	26	S Carolina	42	Georgia Tech	60	N Dakota St
11	Duke	27	USC	43	Syracuse	61	Belmont
12	UCLA	28	Va Tech	44	California	62	ETSU
13	Virginia	29	Minnesota	45	Clemson	63	Texas So
14	Butler	30	SMU	46	Wichita St	64	Sam Houston
15	W Virginia	31	TCU	47	Mid Ten	65	UC Davis
16	Notre Dame	32	Kansas St	48	Valpo	66	Mt St Mary’s
				49	UNC-Wilm	67	Weber St
				50	Nevada	68	NC Central

Notes:

1. The drop-off in resumes really starts with Northwestern at 25. Seeds 11+ are incredibly weak compared to recent history.
2. Chance to enhance results:
   1. Pitt – L,L
   2. Illinois – L,L
   3. Iowa St – L,W
   4. Georgia – L,L
   5. Miami – L,W
3. This week’s chance to enhance:
   1. Clemson (Syracuse & Duke)
   2. Miami (Va Tech & Louisville)
   3. Kansas St (Kansas & W Virginia)