February 28, 2017

Seeds:

2-28-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Kansas 17 Cincinnati 33 Wichita St 51 UT-Arlington
2 Villanova 18 Creighton 34 Xavier 52 Nevada
3 Gonzaga 19 Notre Dame 35 Northwestern 53 Valpo
4 Louisville 20 W Virginia 36 VCU 54 Vermont
5 N Carolina 21 Minnesota 37 Dayton 55 Princeton
6 UCLA 22 Wisconsin 38 Michigan 56 Belmont
7 Kentucky 23 Maryland 39 Arkansas 57 UNC-Ash
8 Oregon 24 Miami 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Baylor 25 S Carolina 41 Providence 59 ETSU
10 Arizona 26 Iowa St 42 Marquette 60 Cal Baker
11 Florida 27 Oklahoma St 43 Seton Hall 61 Fla Gulf Coast
12 Florida St 28 Michigan St 44 Syracuse 62 S Dakota
13 Duke 29 Va Tech 45 Vanderbilt 63 Texas So
14 Purdue 30 USC 46 Illinois State 64 New Orleans
15 Virginia 31 St. Mary’s 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 Butler 32 SMU 48 Akron 66 UC Irvine
49 UNC-Wilm 67 N Dakota
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Once again, the non P5 schools are hard to place because of the lack of comparative schedules.
  2. The bubble is taking better shape. I feel pretty good that Michigan on up are in safely barring unexpected losses. They’re are also fewer competitors for the spots below them. Illinois State, Rhode Island, and Mid Ten are interesting. Not great resumes, but are they as bad as a TCU or Wake Forest? Hard to say.
  3. Games I’m keeping track of this week:
    1. N Carolina at Virginia (one seed in play for heels)
    2. W Virginia at Baylor (fighting for top 4 seed)
    3. Miami at Virginia Tech (Va Tech could lock it up!)
    4. Georgetown at Seton Hall (Pirates in mustn’t lose territory)
    5. Indiana at Purdue (Hoosiers need big run, still may not be enough)
    6. Florida St at Duke (battle for the 3 seed)
    7. DePaul at Providence (Friars can’t lose this one)
    8. Oklahoma St at Iowa St (battle for a 7 seed)
    9. Vanderbilt at Kentucky (win and ‘dores are in, lose and they’re out)
    10. Kansas St. at TCU (both likely out, but neither can afford to lose)
    11. Michigan at Northwestern (both in good shape, but cats are reeling and need home win)
    12. Arkansas at Florida (win and hogs are in)
    13. Rhode Island at St. Joe’s (Rams can’t lose)
    14. VCU at Dayton (winner feels good about at-large, loser will sweat a bit)
    15. Michigan St at Illinois (Spartans look safe, but let’s not jeopardize it, eh?)
    16. Louisville at Wake Forest (Deacons need the win to get in)
    17. Marquette at Xavier (winner feels safe, loser sweats a bit)
    18. Houston at Cincinnati (Cougars have a prayer with win)
    19. Cal at Utah (Gonna be tough for the bears, but they can’t afford to lose)
    20. Indiana at Ohio St (Hoos’ can’t lose)
    21. Providence at Rutgers (Friars can’t lose)
    22. Florida at Vanderbilt (golden opportunity for ‘dores this week, but one loss might finish them)
    23. Georgia at Arkansas (hogs better win at home)
    24. George Mason at VCU
    25. Cal at Colorado (all mountains all week for bears)
    26. Michigan St at Maryland (big game for seeding)
    27. Seton Hall at Butler (winx2 this week and pirates are in)
    28. Creighton at Marquette (winx2 and eagles are in)
    29. TCU at Oklahoma (frogs can’t lose)
    30. Ga Tech at Syracuse (Cuse can’t lose)
    31. Kansas at Oklahoma St (‘boys are safe if they win this ‘un)
    32. Davidson at Rhode Island
    33. Colorado St at Nevada (Mtn West at stake)
    34. S Carolina at Ole Miss (game better win to be safe)
    35. UC Davis at UC Irvine (Battle in the big west)
    36. Purdue at Northwestern (big week for cats)
    37. Michigan at Nebraska (can’t lose twice this week and feel safe)
  4. Saturday and Sunday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
    1. Ohio Valley: Belmont: 1
    2. Atl Sun: FGC: 1
    3. Big South: UNC-Ash: 1
    4. MoVal: Wichita St: 2: possible bubble burster if anyone other than Shockers (or Redbirds) win
  5. Monday Auto bids: favorite: total bids
    1. Colonial: UNC-Wilm: 1
    2. MAAC: Monmouth: 1
    3. Southern: ETSU: 1

February 21, 2017

Seeds:

2-21-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Creighton 33 Iowa St 51 UT-Arlington
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Oklahoma St 52 Nevada
3 Gonzaga 19 Notre Dame 35 Dayton 53 Valpo
4 Baylor 20 Wisconsin 36 Michigan St 54 Vermont
5 Louisville 21 Butler 37 Michigan 55 Princeton
6 N Carolina 22 Maryland 38 Kansas St 56 Belmont
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 TCU 57 UNC-Ash
8 Arizona 24 Minnesota 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Florida 25 Northwestern 41 Wichita St 59 Furman
10 Kentucky 26 USC 42 Arkansas 60 N Dakota St
11 Florida St 27 Va Tech 43 Tennessee 61 Cal-Baker
12 Duke 28 S Carolina 44 Marquette 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 UCLA 29 St. Mary’s 45 Seton Hall 63 Texas So
14 Purdue 30 SMU 46 Georgia Tech 64 New Orleans
15 Virginia 31 VCU 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 W Virginia 32 Miami 48 Akron 66 UC Irvine
49 UNC-Wilm 67 North Dakota
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Still astonished how weak the bubble teams are resume-wise.
  2. Conference finishes to watch
    1. ACC — I can still see Louisville or UNC jumping up to a 1 seed and Duke or Florida St jumping up to a 2 seed. Should be fun to watch. Still to come:
      1. Louisville vs. UNC
      2. Florida St vs. Duke
      3. Duke vs. UNC
    2. SEC — Florida and Kentucky are duking it out for the 3 seed and maybe 2 seed.
      1. Kentucky vs. Florida this Saturday
    3. Pac12 — Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA?
      1. UCLA vs. Arizona Saturday
    4. Mo Valley — Wichita St and Illinois St in Arch Madness finale.
    5. A10 — VCU vs. Dayton next Wednesday. Neither loser will feel too good about at large, though I think both will make it, unless they drop other games.
  3. Bubble games this week:
    1. Iowa St at Texas Tech
    2. Clemson at Virginia Tech
    3. NC State at Georgia Tech
    4. St. John’s at Marquette
    5. Vanderbilt at Tennessee (both are in must not lose situations)
    6. Michigan at Rutgers
    7. Duke at Syracuse (cuse need this one badly)
    8. TCU at Kansas (win and frogs are in)
    9. Xavier at Seton Hall
    10. Pittsburgh at Wake Forest
    11. Texas A&M at Arkansas
    12. Oregon at Cal (win and Bears are in)
    13. Oklahoma St at Kansas St (‘cats can’t lost this one)
    14. Nebraska at Michigan St
    15. Florida St at Clemson (tigers need this one badly)
    16. UNC at Pittsburgh (Panthers need this one badly)
    17. Tennessee at South Carolina
    18. West Virginia at TCU (big week for the frogs)
    19. Texas Tech at Oklahoma St
    20. Miss St at Vandy
    21. Purdue at Michigan
    22. Baylor at Iowa St (win puts clones in)
    23. Kansas St at Oklahoma (another must win for ‘cats)
    24. Arkansas at Auburn
    25. Syracuse at Louisville (two wins for cuse this week and they’re in)
    26. Wisconsin at Michigan St (win and Sparty is in)
    27. Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

February 13, 2017

Seeds:

2-13-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Creighton 33 Dayton 51 UT-Arlington
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Kansas St 52 Boise St
3 Baylor 19 Notre Dame 35 Oklahoma St 53 Valpo
4 Gonzaga 20 Butler 36 Miami 54 Vermont
5 N Carolina 21 Wisconsin 37 Iowa St 55 Princeton
6 Louisville 22 Maryland 38 Michigan St 56 Belmont
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 Michigan 57 UNC-Ash
8 Arizona 24 Northwestern 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Florida St 25 Va Tech 41 Tennessee 59 Furman
10 Florida 26 USC 42 Syracuse 60 N Dakota St
11 Kentucky 27 S Carolina 43 Wake Forest 61 Cal-Baker
12 Virginia 28 Minnesota 44 Wichita St 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 Duke 29 SMU 45 Clemson 63 Texas So
14 UCLA 30 St. Mary’s 46 Pittsburgh 64 New Orleans
15 W Virginia 31 TCU 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 Purdue 32 VCU 48 Akron 66 UC Davis
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Weber St
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The RPI is back! I thought the committee was moving away from the RPI, but based on their top 16, they still weigh it heavily. I had to shake up my 16 to match theirs. I wish I could see their bubble!
  2. The ACC has a mess of bubble teams with terrible records because of their tough schedule. It’s gonna be difficult to determine who gets in and who doesn’t.
  3. Non-power conference teams are really down this year. I see few opportunities for bubble bursting auto seeds. Which means many not-so-good bubble teams will get in when they otherwise wouldn’t and the heartbreak will be mostly reserved for the regular season champs who lose the conference tourney.
  4. I still don’t feel good about teams from TCU downward. I feel way less certain than in years past. I don’t know what the committee is going to do.
  5. Chance to enhance review = missed chances:
    1. Clemson lost both
    2. Kansas St lost both
    3. Miami beat Va Tech and lost a close one to Louisville
  6. Bubble games to watch this week (winner in bold):
    1. Louisville at Syracuse
    2. Wake Forest at Clemson
    3. Va Tech at Pittsburgh
    4. Arkansas at South Carolina
    5. Iowa State at Kansas State
    6. Providence at Xavier
    7. Georgia Tech at Miami
    8. Creighton at Seton Hall
    9. Indiana at Minnesota
    10. Oklahoma St at TCU
    11. Wisconsin at Michigan
    12. Clemson at Miami
    13. Villanova at Seton Hall
    14. Wake Forest at Duke
    15. Va Tech at Louisville
    16. Michigan State at Purdue
    17. Florida State at Pittsburgh
    18. TCU at Iowa State
    19. Xavier at Marquette
    20. Georgetown at Creighton
    21. Syracuse at Georgia Tech
    22. Michigan at Minnesota
  7. I’m not confident that the MoVal loser will get in, but I think Wichita State has a better chance of making it as an at large. Illinois St has better RPI, but 3 bad losses. Wichita St has no bad losses and each team’s only top 50 win is against each other at home. The problem for the Shockers is that a loss to the Redbirds might do them in.

February 6, 2017

Seeds:

2-6-17 Bracket.png

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Cincinnati 33 Iowa St 51 Akron
2 Baylor 18 Purdue 34 Dayton 52 Winthrop
3 Gonzaga 19 Wisconsin 35 Indiana 53 Fla Gulf Coast
4 Kansas 20 Creighton 36 Marquette 54 Monmouth
5 Louisville 21 Maryland 37 Seton Hall 55 New Mex St
6 Kentucky 22 Florida 38 Michigan St 56 Ark St
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 Tennessee 57 Princeton
8 Arizona 24 St. Mary’s 40 Oklahoma St 58 Vermont
9 N Carolina 25 Northwestern 41 Miami 59 Bucknell
10 Florida St 26 S Carolina 42 Georgia Tech 60 N Dakota St
11 Duke 27 USC 43 Syracuse 61 Belmont
12 UCLA 28 Va Tech 44 California 62 ETSU
13 Virginia 29 Minnesota 45 Clemson 63 Texas So
14 Butler 30 SMU 46 Wichita St 64 Sam Houston
15 W Virginia 31 TCU 47 Mid Ten 65 UC Davis
16 Notre Dame 32 Kansas St 48 Valpo 66 Mt St Mary’s
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Weber St
50 Nevada 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The drop-off in resumes really starts with Northwestern at 25. Seeds 11+ are incredibly weak compared to recent history.
  2. Chance to enhance results:
    1. Pitt – L,L
    2. Illinois – L,L
    3. Iowa St – L,W
    4. Georgia – L,L
    5. Miami – L,W
  3. This week’s chance to enhance:
    1. Clemson (Syracuse & Duke)
    2. Miami (Va Tech & Louisville)
    3. Kansas St (Kansas & W Virginia)