Just on the outside in no particular order: Wake Forest, VCU, Marquette, Utah, Georgia, Ole Miss
Seeds 8-11 are very up in the air right now. I had a hard time weighing the resumes, so I don’t put much stock in their order right now.
Games I have my eye on this week: Duke v. NC State, Iowa St v. Kansas St , Purdue v. Michigan St, Louisville v. Pitt, Kansas v. W. Virginia, Villanova v. Marquette, Texas Tech v. Baylor, Nevada v. Boise St, UCLA v. USC, Xavier v. Cincinnati, Va Tech v. N Carolina, Indiana v. Michigan, Oregon v. Utah
Next five out: Michigan, Miami, Utah, Georgia, California, Kansas St
The bubble teams are a mess. A lot of not very impressive resumes.
There ar 23 one-bid leagues and none of them have very strong resumes. Mid Ten has the strongest with wins against UNC-W and Ole Miss.
11 of the 15 ACC teams are currently in, but Wake Forest, Pitt, and NC State are all very vulnerable right now. Fortunately for them they have many chances to improve the resume. Unfortunately, they are staring at the likelihood of losses piling up.
Indiana’s RPI is terrible, but they have a decent resume. The lowest RPI at-large bid I’ve seen get in was 66, but the committee is talking about looking at other metrics, which will make this job harder.
It’s still way too early to discern between resumes, especially the teams on the bubble. Right now the bubble is thin in terms of resumes, but that will change.
I don’t have first four or next four out, yet. Soon.
I haven’t nit-picked between resumes yet among the top seeds either. I will do that in due course, but things will change between now and then anyway, so this really just offers me a starting point. We still have two months and the only one that really matters is the final prediction!
I took the top team from each one-bid league as the conference champion for now. I will later adjust to incorporate league standings, but they just haven’t played enough games to use that at this point. I expect the RPI leader will likely prevail in most leagues.
Bids by conference: ACC 11, Big12 7, BigTen 7, Big East 5, SEC 5, Pac12 4, AAC 2, WCC 2, A10 2