January 30, 2017

Seeds:

1-30-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Baylor 17 Cincinnati 33 Marquette 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Purdue 34 Georgia Tech 52 Winthrop
3 Gonzaga 19 Wisconsin 35 SMU 53 Fla Gulf Coast
4 Kansas 20 Creighton 36 Clemson 54 Monmouth
5 Arizona 21 Maryland 37 Michigan St 55 New Mex St
6 Louisville 22 Florida 38 NC State 56 Ga Southern
7 Kentucky 23 Xavier 39 Kansas St 57 Princeton
8 Florida St 24 St. Mary’s 40 Tennessee 58 Vermont
9 UCLA 25 Northwestern 41 Arkansas 59 Bucknell
10 Oregon 26 Va Tech 42 Iowa St 60 N Dakota St
11 Notre Dame 27 USC 43 Oklahoma St 61 Belmont
12 N Carolina 28 S Carolina 44 Texas Tech 62 ETSU
13 Duke 29 Seton Hall 45 Miami 63 Texas So
14 Butler 30 Minnesota 46 Mid Ten 64 Sam Houston
15 W Virginia 31 Indiana 47 Valpo 65 UC Davis
16 Virginia 32 Dayton 48 UNC-Wilm 66 Mt St Mary’s
49 Illinois St 67 Weber St
50 Nevada 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The Bubble is still a big mess. Seeds 8+ are in danger of falling out each week. I can’t choose between them very well just yet, so hopefully it’ll work itself out.
  2. The Big 12 is bubble-rific, with 4 teams dancing on the edge.
  3. How far will Creighton fall?
  4. Teams just out in no particular order: Wake Forest, Michigan, Illinois, Utah, VCU, Georgia, Cal, Ole Miss, Pitt, Wichita St, Auburn, Vandy
  5. Chance in enhance this week of seeds 8+: Pitt (UNC, Duke), Illinois (Wisc, Minn), Iowa St (WVa, Kansas), Georgia (Kentucky, SCar), Miami (Fla St, NC State),
  6. I can’t wait for that first week of March!

 

January 23, 2017

Rankings:

1-23-17-bracket

Seeds:

1 Villanova Baylor Kansas Gonzaga
2 Kentucky Florida St Louisville Arizona
3 Creighton UCLA Oregon Notre Dame
4 N Carolina Duke Butler Virginia
5 W Virginia Xavier Florida Purdue
6 St. Mary’s Cincinnati Wisconsin Minnesota
7 Maryland Indiana Northwestern Va Tech
8 Seton Hall USC TCU Dayton
9 SMU S Carolina Michigan St Arkansas
10 NC State Texas Tech Kansas St Clemson
11 Pittsburgh Illinois Mid Ten Michigan Miami Iowa St
12 Valpo UNC-Wilm Illinois St Nevada
13 Chattanooga Akron Winthrop Fla Gulf Coast
14 Monmouth New Mex St Ga Southern Princeton
15 Vermont Bucknell N Dakota St Belmont
16 Texas So New Orleans UC Irvine Mt St Mary’s Weber St NC Central

Notes:

  1. Dropped out: Ole Miss, Wake Forest, VCU
  2. Now in: Kansas St, Michigan, Miami
  3. Just on the outside in no particular order: Wake Forest, VCU, Marquette, Utah, Georgia, Ole Miss
  4. Seeds 8-11 are very up in the air right now. I had a hard time weighing the resumes, so I don’t put much stock in their order right now.
  5. Games I have my eye on this week: Duke v. NC State, Iowa St v. Kansas St , Purdue v. Michigan St, Louisville v. Pitt, Kansas v. W. Virginia, Villanova v. Marquette, Texas Tech v. Baylor, Nevada v. Boise St, UCLA v. USC, Xavier v. Cincinnati, Va Tech v. N Carolina, Indiana v. Michigan, Oregon v. Utah
  6. I’ll update Friday.

January 16, 2017

Seeds:

1-16-17-bracket

Ranking:

1 Villanova 17 Xavier 33 Dayton 51 Chattanooga
2 Baylor 18 Arizona 34 Michigan St 52 Akron
3 Kansas 19 Florida 35 Arkansas 53 Fla Gulf Coast
4 Gonzaga 20 Purdue 36 NC State 54 Monmouth
5 Kentucky 21 St. Mary’s 37 Texas Tech 55 New Mex St
6 Florida St 22 Cincinnati 38 SMU 56 Ga Southern
7 UCLA 23 Minnesota 39 South Carolina 57 Princeton
8 Creighton 24 Maryland 40 Wake Forest 58 Vermont
9 Louisville 25 Indiana 41 Pittsburgh 59 N Dakota St
10 Oregon 26 Northwestern 42 Illinois 60 UNC-Ash
11 Notre Dame 27 Clemson 43 Mid Ten 61 Bucknell
12 W Virginia 28 Va Tech 44 Ole Miss 62 Belmont
13 N Carolina 29 Wisconsin 45 Iowa St 63 Texas So
14 Duke 30 Seton Hall 46 VCU 64 New Orleans
15 Butler 31 USC 47 Oakland 65 UC Irvine
16 Virginia 32 TCU 48 UNC-Wilm 66 Mt St Mary’s
49 Illinois St 67 Weber St
50 Nevada 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Next five out: Michigan, Miami, Utah, Georgia, California, Kansas St
  2. The bubble teams are a mess.  A lot of not very impressive resumes.
  3. There ar 23 one-bid leagues and none of them have very strong resumes. Mid Ten has the strongest with wins against UNC-W and Ole Miss.
  4. 11 of the 15 ACC teams are currently in, but Wake Forest, Pitt, and NC State are all very vulnerable right now. Fortunately for them they have many chances to improve the resume. Unfortunately, they are staring at the likelihood of losses piling up.
  5. Indiana’s RPI is terrible, but they have a decent resume. The lowest RPI at-large bid I’ve seen get in was 66, but the committee is talking about looking at other metrics, which will make this job harder.
  6. Is it March yet?

January 10, 2017

Seeds:

1-10-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Baylor 17 North Carolina 33 USC 51 Nicholls
2 Villanova 18 Purdue 34 TCU 52 New Mex St
3 Kansas 19 St. Mary’s 35 Michigan St 53 UT-Arlington
4 Kentucky 20 Virginia 36 Wake Forest 54 Akron
5 Florida St 21 Arizona 37 Pittsburgh 55 Monmouth
6 UCLA 22 Florida 38 South Carolina 56 Vermont
7 Gonzaga 23 Northwestern 39 Illinois 57 Chattanooga
8 Creighton 24 Clemson 40 Texas Tech 58 E. Wash
9 Butler 25 Va Tech 41 Ole Miss 59 ND State
10 Louisville 26 Maryland 42 VCU 60 Yale
11 Minnesota 27 Cincinnati 43 Mid Ten 61 UNC-Ash
12 Oregon 28 NC State 44 SMU 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 Duke 29 Seton Hall 45 Kansas St 63 Bucknell
14 Xavier 30 Dayton 46 Iowa St 64 Belmont
15 W. Virginia 31 Arkansas 47 Valpo 65 Texas So
16 Notre Dame 32 Wisconsin 48 UNC-Wilm 66 NC Central
49 Illinois St 67 UC Irvine
50 Nevada 68 Mt St Mary’s

Notes:

  1. It’s still way too early to discern between resumes, especially the teams on the bubble. Right now the bubble is thin in terms of resumes, but that will change.
  2. I don’t have first four or next four out, yet. Soon.
  3. I haven’t nit-picked between resumes yet among the top seeds either. I will do that in due course, but things will change between now and then anyway, so this really just offers me a starting point. We still have two months and the only one that really matters is the final prediction!
  4. I took the top team from each one-bid league as the conference champion for now. I will later adjust to incorporate league standings, but they just haven’t played enough games to use that at this point. I expect the RPI leader will likely prevail in most leagues.
  5. Bids by conference: ACC 11, Big12 7, BigTen 7, Big East 5, SEC 5, Pac12 4, AAC 2, WCC 2, A10 2