March 3, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Syracuse 51 Valpo
2 Virginia 18 Indiana 34 Vanderbilt 52 Hofstra
3 Villanova 19 California 35 Michigan 53 Monmouth
4 Michigan St 20 Texas 36 Pittsburgh 54 Yale
5 Oregon 21 Iowa St 37 Providence 55 Chattanooga
6 Oklahoma 22 Iowa 38 Connecticut 56 Hawaii
7 Miami 23 Notre Dame 39 St. Joseph’s 57 UAB
8 Utah 24 Colorado 40 Butler 58 Stony Brook
9 Xavier 25 Arizona 41 VCU 59 Belmont
10 N Carolina 26 Texas Tech 42 Cincinnati 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 S Carolina 43 Tulsa 61 S F Austin
12 Duke 28 Oregon St 44 St. Bona 62 Winthrop
13 Maryland 29 Wisconsin 45 Wichita St 63 Weber St
14 Purdue 30 Seton Hall 46 St. Mary’s 64 Bucknell
15 Kentucky 31 USC 47 Ark-LR 65 N. Florida
16 Baylor 32 Dayton 48 Akron 66 Hampton
49 San Diego St 67 Wagner
50 S Dakota St 68 Texas So

 

Last four in: Butler, Tulsa, Cincinnati, St. Bona

First four out: Temple, Florida, Alabama, George Wash

Fell out: Florida, Alabama

Now in: Butler, St. Bonaventure

ACC: 7,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 4,  Big East: 5,  A-10:4, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Vanderbilt on down could all play their way out of the tournament. Syracuse on up should feel very safe.
  2. Oregon has a strong case for #1 seed, but I think the committee will give it to traditional power, Michigan St.
  3. Virginia, Miami, and North Carolina are all in the mix for a #1 seed, but it’s likely only one of them will get it and possible that none of them will.
  4. The A-10 and AAC are duking it out on the bubble. It’s UConn, Cincy, Tulsa, and Temple vs. VCU, St. Joseph’s, and St. Bonaventure.
  5. Teams who would be on bubble without the AQ bid: Wichita St, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Monmouth, Valpo, Ark-LR. These are the conferences to look to for bid stealing tourney winners in addition to the major conferences.
  6. High impact bubble games this week and weekend: Memphis at Temple, Cincy at Houston, UConn at SMU, Vandy at Texas A&M, Ohio St at Michigan St, GW at Davidson, Syracuse at Florida State, LSU at Kentucky, Iowa at Michigan, VCU at Dayton, SMU at Cincy

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

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