March 1, 2016

 

1 Kansas 17 Texas 33 Pittsburgh 51 Akron
2 Virginia 18 Iowa St 34 Vanderbilt 52 IPFW
3 Villanova 19 Iowa 35 Michigan 53 Hawaii
4 Oregon 20 Texas A&M 36 Syracuse 54 Ark LR
5 Oklahoma 21 California 37 USC 55 Stony Brook
6 Michigan St 22 Indiana 38 Providence 56 Yale
7 Miami 23 Notre Dame 39 Alabama 57 UAB
8 Xavier 24 Colorado 40 Connecticut 58 Hofstra
9 Utah 25 Texas Tech 41 Florida 59 Belmont
10 N Carolina 26 Arizona 42 VCU 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 S Carolina 43 Tulsa 61 S F Austin
12 Maryland 28 Oregon St 44 Cincinnati 62 Weber St
13 Duke 29 Wisconsin 45 Monmouth 63 N. Florida
14 Purdue 30 Seton Hall 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Kentucky 31 Dayton 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 St. Joseph’s 48 St. Mary’s 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

 

Last four in: Florida, VCU, Tulsa, Cincinnati

First four out: Butler, Temple, George Wash, St. Bona

Fell out: Temple, George Wash

Now in: Seton Hall, VCU

ACC: 7,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 3, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Seton Hall made a big jump beating Providence and Xavier last week. They need to beat DePaul and then, win or lose at Butler, should be in. Their big jump also highlights just how close seeds 8-11 are, a good or bad week could make a big difference.
  2. Vanderbilt also had a big week winning at Florida and beating Kentucky at home. They should be fine if they beat Tennessee or Texas A&M and avoid losing in the first round of the SEC tournament.
  3. Teams on the “bad RPI watch list” include Butler, Temple, Michigan, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and George Washington.
  4. The AAC has 4 teams on the bubble (and it’s best team in RPI, SMU, is disqualified from the NCAAs). It’s possible that only one will make it, though I think that’s unlikely. Temple should beat Memphis and Tulane, Cincinnati has chance to make the biggest statement by beating Houston on the road and SMU at home, UConn can do likewise by beating SMU on the road, while Tulsa just has South Florida at home left. They’d all be wise to get the AQ bid, but it’s likely that at least 2 of them get in, if not 3, but 4 is a stretch.
  5. Both LSU and Ohio State could potentially play their way back in to the bubble discussion with wins at Kentucky and at Michigan St. They’ll need massive jumps in their RPI, but they have the name recognition and star power factor.
  6. Teams who would be on bubble without the AQ bid: Wichita St, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Monmouth, Valpo, Ark-LR. These are the conferences to look to for bid stealing tourney winners in addition to the major conferences.
  7. High impact bubble games this week and weekend: Kentucky at Florida, St. Joe’s at St. Bona, Seton Hall at Butler, Oregon St. at USC, Memphis at Temple, Cincy at Houston, UConn at SMU, Vandy at Texas A&M, Ohio St at Michigan St, GW at Davidson, Syracuse at Florida State, LSU at Kentucky, Iowa at Michigan, VCU at Dayton, SMU at Cincy

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

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