|4||Oregon||20||Texas A&M||36||Syracuse||54||Ark LR|
|10||N Carolina||26||Arizona||42||VCU||60||New Mex St|
|11||W Virginia||27||S Carolina||43||Tulsa||61||S F Austin|
|12||Maryland||28||Oregon St||44||Cincinnati||62||Weber St|
|14||Purdue||30||Seton Hall||46||Wichita St||64||Winthrop|
|15||Kentucky||31||Dayton||47||San Diego St||65||Bucknell|
|16||Baylor||32||St. Joseph’s||48||St. Mary’s||66||Hampton|
Last four in: Florida, VCU, Tulsa, Cincinnati
First four out: Butler, Temple, George Wash, St. Bona
Fell out: Temple, George Wash
Now in: Seton Hall, VCU
ACC: 7, Pac-12: 7, Big-12: 7, Big-10: 7, SEC: 6, Big East: 4, A-10: 3, AAC: 3
- Seton Hall made a big jump beating Providence and Xavier last week. They need to beat DePaul and then, win or lose at Butler, should be in. Their big jump also highlights just how close seeds 8-11 are, a good or bad week could make a big difference.
- Vanderbilt also had a big week winning at Florida and beating Kentucky at home. They should be fine if they beat Tennessee or Texas A&M and avoid losing in the first round of the SEC tournament.
- Teams on the “bad RPI watch list” include Butler, Temple, Michigan, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and George Washington.
- The AAC has 4 teams on the bubble (and it’s best team in RPI, SMU, is disqualified from the NCAAs). It’s possible that only one will make it, though I think that’s unlikely. Temple should beat Memphis and Tulane, Cincinnati has chance to make the biggest statement by beating Houston on the road and SMU at home, UConn can do likewise by beating SMU on the road, while Tulsa just has South Florida at home left. They’d all be wise to get the AQ bid, but it’s likely that at least 2 of them get in, if not 3, but 4 is a stretch.
- Both LSU and Ohio State could potentially play their way back in to the bubble discussion with wins at Kentucky and at Michigan St. They’ll need massive jumps in their RPI, but they have the name recognition and star power factor.
- Teams who would be on bubble without the AQ bid: Wichita St, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Monmouth, Valpo, Ark-LR. These are the conferences to look to for bid stealing tourney winners in addition to the major conferences.
- High impact bubble games this week and weekend: Kentucky at Florida, St. Joe’s at St. Bona, Seton Hall at Butler, Oregon St. at USC, Memphis at Temple, Cincy at Houston, UConn at SMU, Vandy at Texas A&M, Ohio St at Michigan St, GW at Davidson, Syracuse at Florida State, LSU at Kentucky, Iowa at Michigan, VCU at Dayton, SMU at Cincy
- These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
- AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
- These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.