Final Bracket

I posted my 1-68 seeding list in the previous post. This post will show my final bracket by region. I have an alternate in the case that Memphis wins this afternoon.

Final Bracket (Memphis loses):

East – Philadelphia South – Louisville Midwest – Chicago West – Anaheim
1 Virginia 1 N Carolina 1 Kansas 1 Michigan St
2 Oklahoma 2 Villanova 2 Xavier 2 Oregon
3 Kentucky 3 Utah 3 Miami 3 W Virginia
4 Maryland 4 Indiana 4 Purdue 4 Duke
5 Arizona 5 Iowa St 5 Texas A&M 5 California
6 Seton Hall 6 Texas 6 Baylor 6 Notre Dame
7 Wisconsin 7 Colorado 7 Iowa 7 St. Joseph’s
8 Providence 8 Dayton 8 Connecticut 8 Texas Tech
9 Cincinnati 9 Butler 9 USC 9 Oregon St
10 VCU 10 Pittsburgh 10 St. Bona 10 Gonzaga
11 Michigan 11 N. Iowa 11 Wichita St. vs.
St. Mary’s
11 Temple vs.
San Diego St
12 UNC-W 12 Ark-LR 12 S Dakota St 12 Fresno St
13 Yale 13 Chattanooga 13 Stony Brook 13 Hawaii
14 Iona 14 MTSU 14 SF Austin 14 Buffalo
15 Green Bay 15 UNC-Ash 15 CS Baker 15 Weber St
16 Southern vs. Fla Gulf Coast 16 Hampton 16 Holy Cross vs. Fair Dickinson 16 Austin Peay

 

Final Bracket (Memphis wins):

East – Philadelphia South – Louisville Midwest – Chicago West – Anaheim
1 Virginia 1 N Carolina 1 Kansas 1 Michigan St
2 Oklahoma 2 Villanova 2 Xavier 2 Oregon
3 Kentucky 3 Utah 3 Miami 3 W Virginia
4 Maryland 4 Indiana 4 Purdue 4 Duke
5 Arizona 5 Iowa St 5 Texas A&M 5 California
6 Seton Hall 6 Texas 6 Baylor 6 Notre Dame
7 Wisconsin 7 Colorado 7 Iowa 7 St. Joseph’s
8 Providence 8 Dayton 8 Connecticut 8 Texas Tech
9 Cincinnati 9 Butler 9 USC 9 Oregon St
10 VCU 10 Pittsburgh 10 St. Bona 10 Gonzaga
11 Michigan 11 N. Iowa 11 Wichita St. vs. St. Mary’s 11 Temple vs. UNC-W
12 Chattanooga 12 Ark-LR 12 S Dakota St 12 Fresno St.
13 Yale 13 Memphis 13 Stony Brook 13 Hawaii
14 Iona 14 MTSU 14 SF Austin 14 Buffalo
15 Green Bay 15 UNC-Ash 15 CS Baker 15 Weber St
16 Southern vs.
Fla Gulf Coast
16 Hampton 16 Holy Cross vs. Fair Dickinson 16 Austin Peay

Final 1-68 Seeds

Just like the committee, I have an alternate bracket ready in case Memphis wins this afternoon.

Final 1-68 Seeding (Memphis loses):

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Oregon St 51 Chattanooga
2 Virginia 18 Arizona 34 Butler 52 Yale
3 Michigan St 19 Iowa St 35 USC 53 Stony Brook
4 N Carolina 20 California 36 Cincinnati 54 Hawaii
5 Villanova 21 Baylor 37 Pittsburgh 55 MTSU
6 Oregon 22 Notre Dame 38 St. Bona 56 Buffalo
7 Oklahoma 23 Texas 39 VCU 57 Iona
8 Xavier 24 Seton Hall 40 Gonzaga 58 SF Austin
9 Utah 25 Iowa 41 Michigan 59 Green Bay
10 W Virginia 26 Wisconsin 42 St. Mary’s 60 UNC-Ash
11 Miami 27 St. Joseph’s 43 Temple 61 CS Baker
12 Kentucky 28 Colorado 44 Wichita St 62 Weber St
13 Indiana 29 Dayton 45  San Diego St 63 Austin Peay
14 Purdue 30 Texas Tech 46 N. Iowa 64 Hampton
15 Duke 31 Providence 47 UNC-W 65 FGC
16 Maryland 32 Connecticut 48 Fresno St 66 Southern
49 Ark-LR 67 Fair Dickinson
50 S Dakota St 68 Holy Cross

 

Final 1-68 Seeding (Memphis wins):

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Oregon St 51 Yale
2 Virginia 18 Arizona 34 Butler 52 Memphis
3 Michigan St 19 Iowa St 35 USC 53 Stony Brook
4 N Carolina 20 California 36 Cincinnati 54 Hawaii
5 Villanova 21 Baylor 37 Pittsburgh 55 MTSU
6 Oregon 22 Notre Dame 38 St. Bona 56 Buffalo
7 Oklahoma 23 Texas 39 VCU 57 Iona
8 Xavier 24 Seton Hall 40 Gonzaga 58 SF Austin
9 Utah 25 Iowa 41 Michigan 59 Green Bay
10 W Virginia 26 Wisconsin 42 St. Mary’s 60 UNC-Ash
11 Miami 27 St. Joseph’s 43 Temple 61 CS Baker
12 Kentucky 28 Colorado 44 Wichita St 62 Weber St
13 Indiana 29 Dayton 45 N. Iowa 63 Austin Peay
14 Purdue 30 Texas Tech 46 UNC-W 64 Hampton
15 Duke 31 Providence 47 Fresno St 65 FGC
16 Maryland 32 Connecticut 48 Ark-LR 66 Southern
49 S Dakota St 67 Fair Dickinson
50 Chattanooga 68 Holy Cross

 

 

March 9, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Butler 51 UNC-W
2 Virginia 18 Arizona 34 S Carolina 52 Chattanooga
3 Villanova 19 Iowa St 35 Pittsburgh 53 Yale
4 Michigan St 20 Texas 36 St. Joseph’s 54 Stony Brook
5 Oregon 21 California 37 Vanderbilt 55 Hawaii
6 Oklahoma 22 Baylor 38 Syracuse 56 UAB
7 N Carolina 23 Iowa 39 Connecticut 57 Iona
8 Utah 24 Wisconsin 40 Cincinnati 58 Green Bay
9 Miami 25 Dayton 41 VCU 59 UNC-Ash
10 Xavier 26 Notre Dame 42 Wichita St 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 Texas Tech 43 Temple 61 S F Austin
12 Kentucky 28 Colorado 44 St. Bona 62 Weber St
13 Indiana 29 Seton Hall 45 Gonzaga 63 Austin Peay
14 Duke 30 Oregon St 46 Akron 64 Lehigh
15 Purdue 31 USC 47 N. Iowa 65 FGC
16 Maryland 32 Providence 48 San Diego St 66 Hampton
49 Ark-LR 67 Fair Dickinson
50 S Dakota St 68 Texas So

 

 

 

March 4, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Syracuse 51 Chattanooga
2 Virginia 18 Indiana 34 Vanderbilt 52 S Dakota St
3 Villanova 19 Arizona 35 Michigan 53 Ark-LR
4 Michigan St 20 Texas 36 Pittsburgh 54 Yale
5 Oregon 21 Iowa St 37 Providence 55 Hofstra
6 Oklahoma 22 Iowa 38 Connecticut 56 Hawaii
7 Miami 23 Notre Dame 39 St. Joseph’s 57 UAB
8 Utah 24 Colorado 40 Butler 58 Stony Brook
9 Xavier 25 California 41 VCU 59 Belmont
10 N Carolina 26 Texas Tech 42 Cincinnati 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 S Carolina 43 Tulsa 61 S F Austin
12 Duke 28 Oregon St 44 St. Bona 62 Winthrop
13 Maryland 29 Wisconsin 45 Wichita St 63 Weber St
14 Purdue 30 Seton Hall 46 St. Mary’s 64 Lehigh
15 Kentucky 31 USC 47 Monmouth 65 Fla GC
16 Baylor 32 Dayton 48 Akron 66 Hampton
49 San Diego St 67 Wagner
50 Valpo 68 Texas So

 

March 4a

March 3, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Syracuse 51 Valpo
2 Virginia 18 Indiana 34 Vanderbilt 52 Hofstra
3 Villanova 19 California 35 Michigan 53 Monmouth
4 Michigan St 20 Texas 36 Pittsburgh 54 Yale
5 Oregon 21 Iowa St 37 Providence 55 Chattanooga
6 Oklahoma 22 Iowa 38 Connecticut 56 Hawaii
7 Miami 23 Notre Dame 39 St. Joseph’s 57 UAB
8 Utah 24 Colorado 40 Butler 58 Stony Brook
9 Xavier 25 Arizona 41 VCU 59 Belmont
10 N Carolina 26 Texas Tech 42 Cincinnati 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 S Carolina 43 Tulsa 61 S F Austin
12 Duke 28 Oregon St 44 St. Bona 62 Winthrop
13 Maryland 29 Wisconsin 45 Wichita St 63 Weber St
14 Purdue 30 Seton Hall 46 St. Mary’s 64 Bucknell
15 Kentucky 31 USC 47 Ark-LR 65 N. Florida
16 Baylor 32 Dayton 48 Akron 66 Hampton
49 San Diego St 67 Wagner
50 S Dakota St 68 Texas So

 

Last four in: Butler, Tulsa, Cincinnati, St. Bona

First four out: Temple, Florida, Alabama, George Wash

Fell out: Florida, Alabama

Now in: Butler, St. Bonaventure

ACC: 7,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 4,  Big East: 5,  A-10:4, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Vanderbilt on down could all play their way out of the tournament. Syracuse on up should feel very safe.
  2. Oregon has a strong case for #1 seed, but I think the committee will give it to traditional power, Michigan St.
  3. Virginia, Miami, and North Carolina are all in the mix for a #1 seed, but it’s likely only one of them will get it and possible that none of them will.
  4. The A-10 and AAC are duking it out on the bubble. It’s UConn, Cincy, Tulsa, and Temple vs. VCU, St. Joseph’s, and St. Bonaventure.
  5. Teams who would be on bubble without the AQ bid: Wichita St, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Monmouth, Valpo, Ark-LR. These are the conferences to look to for bid stealing tourney winners in addition to the major conferences.
  6. High impact bubble games this week and weekend: Memphis at Temple, Cincy at Houston, UConn at SMU, Vandy at Texas A&M, Ohio St at Michigan St, GW at Davidson, Syracuse at Florida State, LSU at Kentucky, Iowa at Michigan, VCU at Dayton, SMU at Cincy

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

March 1, 2016

 

1 Kansas 17 Texas 33 Pittsburgh 51 Akron
2 Virginia 18 Iowa St 34 Vanderbilt 52 IPFW
3 Villanova 19 Iowa 35 Michigan 53 Hawaii
4 Oregon 20 Texas A&M 36 Syracuse 54 Ark LR
5 Oklahoma 21 California 37 USC 55 Stony Brook
6 Michigan St 22 Indiana 38 Providence 56 Yale
7 Miami 23 Notre Dame 39 Alabama 57 UAB
8 Xavier 24 Colorado 40 Connecticut 58 Hofstra
9 Utah 25 Texas Tech 41 Florida 59 Belmont
10 N Carolina 26 Arizona 42 VCU 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 S Carolina 43 Tulsa 61 S F Austin
12 Maryland 28 Oregon St 44 Cincinnati 62 Weber St
13 Duke 29 Wisconsin 45 Monmouth 63 N. Florida
14 Purdue 30 Seton Hall 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Kentucky 31 Dayton 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 St. Joseph’s 48 St. Mary’s 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

 

Last four in: Florida, VCU, Tulsa, Cincinnati

First four out: Butler, Temple, George Wash, St. Bona

Fell out: Temple, George Wash

Now in: Seton Hall, VCU

ACC: 7,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 3, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Seton Hall made a big jump beating Providence and Xavier last week. They need to beat DePaul and then, win or lose at Butler, should be in. Their big jump also highlights just how close seeds 8-11 are, a good or bad week could make a big difference.
  2. Vanderbilt also had a big week winning at Florida and beating Kentucky at home. They should be fine if they beat Tennessee or Texas A&M and avoid losing in the first round of the SEC tournament.
  3. Teams on the “bad RPI watch list” include Butler, Temple, Michigan, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and George Washington.
  4. The AAC has 4 teams on the bubble (and it’s best team in RPI, SMU, is disqualified from the NCAAs). It’s possible that only one will make it, though I think that’s unlikely. Temple should beat Memphis and Tulane, Cincinnati has chance to make the biggest statement by beating Houston on the road and SMU at home, UConn can do likewise by beating SMU on the road, while Tulsa just has South Florida at home left. They’d all be wise to get the AQ bid, but it’s likely that at least 2 of them get in, if not 3, but 4 is a stretch.
  5. Both LSU and Ohio State could potentially play their way back in to the bubble discussion with wins at Kentucky and at Michigan St. They’ll need massive jumps in their RPI, but they have the name recognition and star power factor.
  6. Teams who would be on bubble without the AQ bid: Wichita St, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Monmouth, Valpo, Ark-LR. These are the conferences to look to for bid stealing tourney winners in addition to the major conferences.
  7. High impact bubble games this week and weekend: Kentucky at Florida, St. Joe’s at St. Bona, Seton Hall at Butler, Oregon St. at USC, Memphis at Temple, Cincy at Houston, UConn at SMU, Vandy at Texas A&M, Ohio St at Michigan St, GW at Davidson, Syracuse at Florida State, LSU at Kentucky, Iowa at Michigan, VCU at Dayton, SMU at Cincy

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.