February 25, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas 33 Syracuse 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Iowa St 34 Florida 52 IPFW
3 Oklahoma 19 Notre Dame 35 Pittsburgh 53 Hawaii
4 Virginia 20 Purdue 36 Michigan 54 Ark-LR
5 Xavier 21 Texas A&M 37 Tulsa 55 Stony Brook
6 Miami 22 Dayton 38 Connecticut 56 Yale
7 Maryland 23 Texas Tech 39 Providence 57 UAB
8 N Carolina 24 Colorado 40 Alabama 58 Belmont
9 Oregon 25 California 41 Vanderbilt 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Michigan St 26 Indiana 42 Temple 60 New Mex St
11 Utah 27 Arizona 43 Cincinnati 61 N. Florida
12 Kentucky 28 S Carolina 44 George Wash 62 Montana
13 Duke 29 USC 45 Monmouth 63 S F Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Oregon St 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Iowa 31 Saint Joseph’s 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 Wisconsin 48 St. Mary’s 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

Last four in: Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, George Wash

First four out: Seton Hall, VCU, Butler, St. Bona

Fell out: VCU

Now in: Vanderbilt

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 3,  A-10: 3, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Vanderbilt and Alabama have nearly identical resumes and are both barely hanging on. Vanderbilt has way more opportunity to clinch with a home game against Kentucky and a road game against Texas A&M. Alabama has more opportunity to blow it–any loss in regular season might do it.
  2. Teams on the bad RPI watch include Butler, Temple, VCU, Florida State, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga, and LSU.
  3. Arizona is still highly overrated. Bracket Matrix has them as a 4 seed! They have just two wins against the top 50 and both are at home. Their RPI is 28, but their SOS is 87 and only 235 in non-conference play. They don’t have any bad losses, but their name is still carrying them. It’ll be telling what the committee favors when they choose seeds.
  4. I compared my seeds to the bracket matrix averages to find where I deviated the most in either direction. Teams I seed over two standard deviations higher than average: Colorado (Me: 6, Avg: 9), Baylor (4, 5), Maryland (2, 3). Teams I seed over two standard deviations lower than average: Arizona (7, 4), Seton Hall (out, 10).
  5. It’ll be interesting to see what the committee does with Wisconsin, who started awfully and has come on very strong. Same goes for Syracuse.
  6. High impact bubble games this weekend: Xavier at Seton Hall, Duke at Pitt, Tulsa At Memphis, Michigan at Wisconsin, USC at Cal, Washington at Oregon, Butler at Georgetown, VCU at GW, Kentucky at Vanderbilt, Notre Dame at Florida State

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

2 thoughts on “February 25, 2016

  1. Tony Russo February 28, 2016 / 2:13 am

    How can Providence be ranked so high in your bracket and Seton Hall be left out? Seton Hall beat Providence twice, has a better RPI than Providence and are ahead of them in the same conference. I know Providence beat Villanova but doesn’t head to head count for something and tell you all you need to know?

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  2. thisaintbracketscience February 29, 2016 / 10:03 pm

    That was from last Thursday, before Seton Hall had beaten both Providence and Xavier. I’m making adjustments that I’ll publish tomorrow. I’m think they’re up to possibly an 8 or 9 seed with those two big wins. I think seeds 8-11 are exceedingly close anyway, but the pirates should feel pretty good about their chances right now.

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