|5||Xavier||21||Texas A&M||37||Tulsa||55||Stony Brook|
|10||Michigan St||26||Indiana||42||Temple||60||New Mex St|
|12||Kentucky||28||S Carolina||44||George Wash||62||Montana|
|13||Duke||29||USC||45||Monmouth||63||S F Austin|
|14||W Virginia||30||Oregon St||46||Wichita St||64||Winthrop|
|15||Iowa||31||Saint Joseph’s||47||San Diego St||65||Bucknell|
Last four in: Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, George Wash
First four out: Seton Hall, VCU, Butler, St. Bona
Fell out: VCU
Now in: Vanderbilt
ACC: 8, Pac-12: 7, Big-12: 7, Big-10: 7, SEC: 6, Big East: 3, A-10: 3, AAC: 3
- Vanderbilt and Alabama have nearly identical resumes and are both barely hanging on. Vanderbilt has way more opportunity to clinch with a home game against Kentucky and a road game against Texas A&M. Alabama has more opportunity to blow it–any loss in regular season might do it.
- Teams on the bad RPI watch include Butler, Temple, VCU, Florida State, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga, and LSU.
- Arizona is still highly overrated. Bracket Matrix has them as a 4 seed! They have just two wins against the top 50 and both are at home. Their RPI is 28, but their SOS is 87 and only 235 in non-conference play. They don’t have any bad losses, but their name is still carrying them. It’ll be telling what the committee favors when they choose seeds.
- I compared my seeds to the bracket matrix averages to find where I deviated the most in either direction. Teams I seed over two standard deviations higher than average: Colorado (Me: 6, Avg: 9), Baylor (4, 5), Maryland (2, 3). Teams I seed over two standard deviations lower than average: Arizona (7, 4), Seton Hall (out, 10).
- It’ll be interesting to see what the committee does with Wisconsin, who started awfully and has come on very strong. Same goes for Syracuse.
- High impact bubble games this weekend: Xavier at Seton Hall, Duke at Pitt, Tulsa At Memphis, Michigan at Wisconsin, USC at Cal, Washington at Oregon, Butler at Georgetown, VCU at GW, Kentucky at Vanderbilt, Notre Dame at Florida State
- These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
- AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
- These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.