February 22, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Baylor 33 Pittsburgh 51 Akron
2

Villanova

18 Notre Dame 34 Colorado 52 IPFW
3 Oklahoma 19 Texas 35 Saint Joseph’s 53 Hawaii
4 Virginia 20 Arizona 36 Wisconsin 54 Ark-LR
5 N Carolina 21 Purdue 37 Connecticut 55 Stony Brook
6 Maryland 22 Texas A&M 38 Providence 56 Yale
7 Iowa 23 Dayton 39 Michigan 57 UAB
8 Miami 24 Texas Tech 40 Cincinnati 58 Belmont
9 Xavier 25 Indiana 41 VCU 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Oregon 26 S Carolina 42 George Wash 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 California 43 Tulsa 61 N. Florida
12 Kentucky 28 USC 44 Temple 62 Montana
13 Duke 29 Oregon State 45 Monmouth 63 S F Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Syracuse 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Utah 31 Alabama 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Iowa State 32 Florida 48 St. Mary’s 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

 

Last four in: Cincinnati, VCU, George Wash, Tulsa

First four out: Butler, UCLA, St. Bona, Washington

Fell out: Florida State, LSU, Washington

Now in: St. Joseph’s, VCU, Tulsa

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 5,  Big East: 3,  A-10: 4, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Things are rounding into shape, but there remains a swath of teams I find exceedingly difficult to seed. The 7-11 seeds are difficult to place for various reasons, so it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out.
  2. I place big emphasis on RPI, top-50 wins, and bad losses. The worst RPI team I’ve seen make it into the tourney in recent years was USC several years ago at 67. That team had star power, but more importantly a difficult schedule and several top 50 wins. LSU isn’t getting in because of Ben Simmons. They’re not getting in because their resume stinks. Their RPI is 87. Teams on the bad RPI watch include Butler, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga, and LSU.
  3. High impact bubble games this week (not including weekend): Vanderbilt at Florida, Temple at Tulsa, Alabama at Kentucky, Arizona at Colorado, Washington at Oregon State, Florida State at Duke, Providence at Seton Hall, UCLA at California

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

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