February 12, 2016

1 Oklahoma 17 Kentucky 33 Michigan 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Texas A&M 34 Arizona 52 UC Irvine
3 Kansas 19 Dayton 35 Wichita St 53 S. Dakota St
4 Virginia 20 USC 36 California 54 Ark-Little Rock
5 Iowa 21 Baylor 37 Alabama 55 Stony Brook
6 Oregon 22 Texas 38 George Wash 56 Yale
7 Maryland 23 S Carolina 39 Washington 57 UAB
8 West Virginia 24 Duke 40 Kansas State 58 Belmont
9 N Carolina 25 Florida 41 VCU 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Miami 26 Pittsburgh 42 Seton Hall 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 Syracuse 43 Vanderbilt 61 N. Florida
12 Xavier 28 Oregon State 44 Texas Tech 62 UNC-Asheville
13 Iowa State 29 Colorado 45 Temple 63 Montana
14 Utah 30 Florida State 46 Monmouth 64 Stephen F Austin
15 Purdue 31 Providence 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Notre Dame 32 Indiana 48 Gonzaga 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas Southern
50 Chattanooga 68 Fair Dickinson

Last four in: VCU, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech

First four out: Connecticut, Wisconsin, Saint Joseph’s, UCLA

Fell out: Connecticut

Now in: Texas Tech

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 8,  Big-12: 8,  Big-10: 6,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 3, AAC: 1

Analysis:

  1. Kansas State should be in. All of their 10 losses are against top-25 RPI opponents. Their best wins are at home against #1 OU and #41 Texas Tech. They most certainly will need to win more games to get in, but as of right now should be in.
  2. Arizona is still overrated based on resume alone, but has opportunities ahead to justify the higher seed.
  3. The bubble is a mess right now with many weak resumes. There is lots of opportunity for teams to play their way in and play their way out over the last few weeks.
  4. High impact bubble games this weekend: Texas A&M at LSU, Purdue at Michigan, Washington at Colorado, Xavier at Butler, George Washington at St. Bonaventure, Alabama at Florida, Wisconsin at Maryland, Texas Tech at Baylor, Gonzaga at SMU

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

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