February 5, 2016

1 Oklahoma 17 Utah 33 Wichita St 51 Akron
2 Oregon 18 Texas 34 VCU 52 UC Irvine
3 Xavier 19 Florida 35 California 53 S. Dakota St
4 North Carolina 20 Purdue 36 Washington 54 Ark-Little Rock
5 Kansas 21 Colorado 37 Arizona 55 Stony Brook
6 Iowa 22 USC 38 Alabama 56 Yale
7 Villanova 23 Providence 39 South Carolina 57 UAB
8 Virginia 24 Duke 40 Seton Hall 58 Belmont
9 Maryland 25 Michigan 41 Connecticut 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Iowa State 26 Pittsburgh 42 Vanderbilt 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 Kentucky 43 Clemson 61 N. Florida
12 Miami 28 Syracuse 44 Texas Tech 62 UNC-Asheville
13 West Virginia 29 Notre Dame 45 Cincinnati 63 Weber St
14 Dayton 30 Florida State 46 Monmouth 64 Stephen F Austin
15 Texas A&M 31 Indiana 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 Oregon State 48 Gonzaga 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas Southern
50 Chattanooga 68 Fair. Dickinson

Last four in: Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Texas Tech

First four out: George Washington, Stanford, Kansas State, UCLA

ACC: 9,  Pac-12: 8,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 6,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 2, AAC; 2

Analysis:

  1. Teams in trouble due to lack of top-50 wins: St. Joseph’s, St. Mary’s, BYU
  2. Teams in trouble because of many top-25 losses, few top-50 wins: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Stanford
  3. The Pac-12 has a lot of sorting out to do between now and March. Arizona, California, Washington, Oregon State, UCLA, and Stanford are all 9 seeds or lower. They currently have 8 in, I expect that to end at 6 or 7.
  4. Teams in trouble with many bad losses, but several great wins: Clemson, Wisconsin.
  5. Teams previously on bubble, but now very unlikely to get in: Creighton and Davidson
  6. High impact bubble games this weekend: Stanford vs. California (both need it), Colorado vs. Oregon State,  South Carolina vs. Texas A&M (SC needs it), Seton Hall vs. Georgetown (G-town barely hanging on to hope), Texas Tech vs. Texas (would be huge for Tech), Oklahoma vs. Kansas State (would be huge for KSU), GW vs. VCU (both need it)

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

 

 

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