February 25, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas 33 Syracuse 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Iowa St 34 Florida 52 IPFW
3 Oklahoma 19 Notre Dame 35 Pittsburgh 53 Hawaii
4 Virginia 20 Purdue 36 Michigan 54 Ark-LR
5 Xavier 21 Texas A&M 37 Tulsa 55 Stony Brook
6 Miami 22 Dayton 38 Connecticut 56 Yale
7 Maryland 23 Texas Tech 39 Providence 57 UAB
8 N Carolina 24 Colorado 40 Alabama 58 Belmont
9 Oregon 25 California 41 Vanderbilt 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Michigan St 26 Indiana 42 Temple 60 New Mex St
11 Utah 27 Arizona 43 Cincinnati 61 N. Florida
12 Kentucky 28 S Carolina 44 George Wash 62 Montana
13 Duke 29 USC 45 Monmouth 63 S F Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Oregon St 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Iowa 31 Saint Joseph’s 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 Wisconsin 48 St. Mary’s 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

Last four in: Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, George Wash

First four out: Seton Hall, VCU, Butler, St. Bona

Fell out: VCU

Now in: Vanderbilt

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 3,  A-10: 3, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Vanderbilt and Alabama have nearly identical resumes and are both barely hanging on. Vanderbilt has way more opportunity to clinch with a home game against Kentucky and a road game against Texas A&M. Alabama has more opportunity to blow it–any loss in regular season might do it.
  2. Teams on the bad RPI watch include Butler, Temple, VCU, Florida State, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga, and LSU.
  3. Arizona is still highly overrated. Bracket Matrix has them as a 4 seed! They have just two wins against the top 50 and both are at home. Their RPI is 28, but their SOS is 87 and only 235 in non-conference play. They don’t have any bad losses, but their name is still carrying them. It’ll be telling what the committee favors when they choose seeds.
  4. I compared my seeds to the bracket matrix averages to find where I deviated the most in either direction. Teams I seed over two standard deviations higher than average: Colorado (Me: 6, Avg: 9), Baylor (4, 5), Maryland (2, 3). Teams I seed over two standard deviations lower than average: Arizona (7, 4), Seton Hall (out, 10).
  5. It’ll be interesting to see what the committee does with Wisconsin, who started awfully and has come on very strong. Same goes for Syracuse.
  6. High impact bubble games this weekend: Xavier at Seton Hall, Duke at Pitt, Tulsa At Memphis, Michigan at Wisconsin, USC at Cal, Washington at Oregon, Butler at Georgetown, VCU at GW, Kentucky at Vanderbilt, Notre Dame at Florida State

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

February 22, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Baylor 33 Pittsburgh 51 Akron
2

Villanova

18 Notre Dame 34 Colorado 52 IPFW
3 Oklahoma 19 Texas 35 Saint Joseph’s 53 Hawaii
4 Virginia 20 Arizona 36 Wisconsin 54 Ark-LR
5 N Carolina 21 Purdue 37 Connecticut 55 Stony Brook
6 Maryland 22 Texas A&M 38 Providence 56 Yale
7 Iowa 23 Dayton 39 Michigan 57 UAB
8 Miami 24 Texas Tech 40 Cincinnati 58 Belmont
9 Xavier 25 Indiana 41 VCU 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Oregon 26 S Carolina 42 George Wash 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 California 43 Tulsa 61 N. Florida
12 Kentucky 28 USC 44 Temple 62 Montana
13 Duke 29 Oregon State 45 Monmouth 63 S F Austin
14 W Virginia 30 Syracuse 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Utah 31 Alabama 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Iowa State 32 Florida 48 St. Mary’s 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

 

Last four in: Cincinnati, VCU, George Wash, Tulsa

First four out: Butler, UCLA, St. Bona, Washington

Fell out: Florida State, LSU, Washington

Now in: St. Joseph’s, VCU, Tulsa

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 7,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 7,  SEC: 5,  Big East: 3,  A-10: 4, AAC: 3

Analysis:

  1. Things are rounding into shape, but there remains a swath of teams I find exceedingly difficult to seed. The 7-11 seeds are difficult to place for various reasons, so it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out.
  2. I place big emphasis on RPI, top-50 wins, and bad losses. The worst RPI team I’ve seen make it into the tourney in recent years was USC several years ago at 67. That team had star power, but more importantly a difficult schedule and several top 50 wins. LSU isn’t getting in because of Ben Simmons. They’re not getting in because their resume stinks. Their RPI is 87. Teams on the bad RPI watch include Butler, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga, and LSU.
  3. High impact bubble games this week (not including weekend): Vanderbilt at Florida, Temple at Tulsa, Alabama at Kentucky, Arizona at Colorado, Washington at Oregon State, Florida State at Duke, Providence at Seton Hall, UCLA at California

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

February 17, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Duke 33 Pittsburgh 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Purdue 34 Providence 52 S. Dakota St
3 Oklahoma 19 Dayton 35 Wisconsin 53 Hawaii
4 Virginia 20 Texas 36 Alabama 54 Ark-Little Rock
5 Iowa 21 Arizona 37 Connecticut 55 Stony Brook
6 Maryland 22 Baylor 38 Michigan 56 Yale
7 Oregon 23 USC 39 Florida State 57 UAB
8 N Carolina 24 S Carolina 40 George Wash 58 Belmont
9 Miami 25 Texas A&M 41 Washington 59 UNC-Wilm
10 W Virginia 26 California 42 Cincinnati 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 Florida 43 LSU 61 N. Florida
12 Xavier 28 Oregon State 44 Temple 62 Montana
13 Kentucky 29 Syracuse 45 Monmouth 63 Stephen F Austin
14 Iowa State 30 Colorado 46 Wichita St 64 Winthrop
15 Utah 31 Indiana 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Notre Dame 32 Texas Tech 48 Gonzaga 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas Southern
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

No analysis this time, don’t have enough time this week. Will say more next week.

February 12, 2016

1 Oklahoma 17 Kentucky 33 Michigan 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Texas A&M 34 Arizona 52 UC Irvine
3 Kansas 19 Dayton 35 Wichita St 53 S. Dakota St
4 Virginia 20 USC 36 California 54 Ark-Little Rock
5 Iowa 21 Baylor 37 Alabama 55 Stony Brook
6 Oregon 22 Texas 38 George Wash 56 Yale
7 Maryland 23 S Carolina 39 Washington 57 UAB
8 West Virginia 24 Duke 40 Kansas State 58 Belmont
9 N Carolina 25 Florida 41 VCU 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Miami 26 Pittsburgh 42 Seton Hall 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 Syracuse 43 Vanderbilt 61 N. Florida
12 Xavier 28 Oregon State 44 Texas Tech 62 UNC-Asheville
13 Iowa State 29 Colorado 45 Temple 63 Montana
14 Utah 30 Florida State 46 Monmouth 64 Stephen F Austin
15 Purdue 31 Providence 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Notre Dame 32 Indiana 48 Gonzaga 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas Southern
50 Chattanooga 68 Fair Dickinson

Last four in: VCU, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech

First four out: Connecticut, Wisconsin, Saint Joseph’s, UCLA

Fell out: Connecticut

Now in: Texas Tech

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 8,  Big-12: 8,  Big-10: 6,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 3, AAC: 1

Analysis:

  1. Kansas State should be in. All of their 10 losses are against top-25 RPI opponents. Their best wins are at home against #1 OU and #41 Texas Tech. They most certainly will need to win more games to get in, but as of right now should be in.
  2. Arizona is still overrated based on resume alone, but has opportunities ahead to justify the higher seed.
  3. The bubble is a mess right now with many weak resumes. There is lots of opportunity for teams to play their way in and play their way out over the last few weeks.
  4. High impact bubble games this weekend: Texas A&M at LSU, Purdue at Michigan, Washington at Colorado, Xavier at Butler, George Washington at St. Bonaventure, Alabama at Florida, Wisconsin at Maryland, Texas Tech at Baylor, Gonzaga at SMU

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

February 8, 2016

1 Oklahoma 17 Utah 33 VCU 51 Akron
2 Oregon 18 USC 34 Wichita St 52 UC Irvine
3 Villanova 19 Texas 35 Michigan 53 S. Dakota St
4 Iowa 20 Baylor 36 Kansas St 54 Ark-Little Rock
5 Kansas 21 Purdue 37 California 55 Stony Brook
6 Virginia 22 S Carolina 38 George Wash 56 Yale
7 Xavier 23 Notre Dame 39 Washington 57 UAB
8 Maryland 24 Florida 40 Indiana 58 Belmont
9 N Carolina 25 Duke 41 Seton Hall 59 UNC-Wilm
10 West Virginia 26 Colorado 42 Connecticut 60 New Mex St
11 Iowa State 27 Pittsburgh 43 Vanderbilt 61 N. Florida
12 Michigan St 28 Providence 44 Alabama 62 UNC-Asheville
13 Dayton 29 Syracuse 45 Temple 63 Montana
14 Miami 30 Florida State 46 Monmouth 64 Stephen F Austin
15 Texas A&M 31 Oregon State 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Kentucky 32 Arizona 48 Gonzaga 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas Southern
50 Chattanooga 68 Wagner

Last four in: Seton Hall, Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Alabama

First four out: Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph’s, UCLA

Fell out: Clemson, Texas Tech

Now in: Kansas State, George Washington

ACC: 8,  Pac-12: 8,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 6,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 3, AAC; 2

Analysis:

  1. Kansas State and George Washington both won huge games to play their way in.
  2. Clemson’s loss was horrendous. They continue to be the most baffling team still in the hunt.
  3. Oklahoma still has the best resume. The Big 12 has 6 teams in the top 25 and nearly 8 in the top 50 RPI (TT is 51) which is padding all their resumes nicely. I still think 7 is the max with 6 a possibility if Kansas State struggles down the stretch.
  4. High impact bubble games this week (not including weekend): Notre Dame at Clemson, Butler at Seton Hall, LSU at South Carolina, Texas A&M at Alabama, Saint Joseph’s at George Washington, Baylor at Kansas State, Iowa State at Texas Tech, Washington at Utah, UConn at Temple, Oregon State at Stanford, UCLA at Arizona

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

 

February 5, 2016

1 Oklahoma 17 Utah 33 Wichita St 51 Akron
2 Oregon 18 Texas 34 VCU 52 UC Irvine
3 Xavier 19 Florida 35 California 53 S. Dakota St
4 North Carolina 20 Purdue 36 Washington 54 Ark-Little Rock
5 Kansas 21 Colorado 37 Arizona 55 Stony Brook
6 Iowa 22 USC 38 Alabama 56 Yale
7 Villanova 23 Providence 39 South Carolina 57 UAB
8 Virginia 24 Duke 40 Seton Hall 58 Belmont
9 Maryland 25 Michigan 41 Connecticut 59 UNC-Wilm
10 Iowa State 26 Pittsburgh 42 Vanderbilt 60 New Mex St
11 Michigan St 27 Kentucky 43 Clemson 61 N. Florida
12 Miami 28 Syracuse 44 Texas Tech 62 UNC-Asheville
13 West Virginia 29 Notre Dame 45 Cincinnati 63 Weber St
14 Dayton 30 Florida State 46 Monmouth 64 Stephen F Austin
15 Texas A&M 31 Indiana 47 San Diego St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 Oregon State 48 Gonzaga 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas Southern
50 Chattanooga 68 Fair. Dickinson

Last four in: Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Texas Tech

First four out: George Washington, Stanford, Kansas State, UCLA

ACC: 9,  Pac-12: 8,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 6,  SEC: 6,  Big East: 4,  A-10: 2, AAC; 2

Analysis:

  1. Teams in trouble due to lack of top-50 wins: St. Joseph’s, St. Mary’s, BYU
  2. Teams in trouble because of many top-25 losses, few top-50 wins: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Stanford
  3. The Pac-12 has a lot of sorting out to do between now and March. Arizona, California, Washington, Oregon State, UCLA, and Stanford are all 9 seeds or lower. They currently have 8 in, I expect that to end at 6 or 7.
  4. Teams in trouble with many bad losses, but several great wins: Clemson, Wisconsin.
  5. Teams previously on bubble, but now very unlikely to get in: Creighton and Davidson
  6. High impact bubble games this weekend: Stanford vs. California (both need it), Colorado vs. Oregon State,  South Carolina vs. Texas A&M (SC needs it), Seton Hall vs. Georgetown (G-town barely hanging on to hope), Texas Tech vs. Texas (would be huge for Tech), Oklahoma vs. Kansas State (would be huge for KSU), GW vs. VCU (both need it)

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.