|1||Oklahoma||17||Providence||33||Oregon State||51||Will & Mary|
|2||N Carolina||18||Utah||34||Texas Tech||52||S. Dakota St|
|5||Iowa||21||Kentucky||37||S Carolina||55||Ark-Little Rock|
|7||Oregon||23||Notre Dame||39||Alabama||57||Kent St|
|9||Iowa State||25||Texas||41||UCLA||59||New Mex St|
|11||Miami||27||California||43||George Wash||61||N. Florida|
|12||W Virginia||28||Duke||44||St. Mary’s||62||UNC-Asheville|
|13||Texas A&M||29||Pittsburgh||45||Boise St||63||Montana|
|14||Michigan St||30||Indiana||46||Connecticut||64||S F Austin|
|50||Chattanooga||68||Mt St Mary’s|
Last four in: Syracuse, UCLA, Seton Hall, George Wash
First four out: Vanderbilt, Butler, Cincinnati, St. Joseph’s
ACC: 9, Pac-12: 9, Big-12: 7, Big-10: 6, SEC: 5, Big East: 5, A-10: 2
- Oregon is way undervalued by most brackets. They are 7-1 vs. the top 50 with RPI of 4 and SOS of 6. They are better than a 4 seed.
- On the other end, Arizona is way overvalued. Perhaps the name is carrying them right now. They are 0-4 vs. top 50 with RPI of 37 and SOS of 104. They don’t have any bad losses and they have several top 50 games coming up so we’ll find out if they truly are overrated, but their resume right now says 9 seed, not 5 seed.
- The Big-12 is very top heavy in RPI with 6 teams in top 25 and 7 teams in top 50 (with 8th just outside it). Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State don’t have great records, but strong SOS and RPI. I don’t think they’ll get more than 7 teams, so I expect Texas Tech and/or Kansas State to fall out as losses mount. The top 5 teams will likely all get top 4 seeds.
- It’s always very difficult to place teams that have very few games against the top 50 like St. Mary’s and South Carolina. It’s also very difficult to place teams that have several good wins and several bad losses like Wisconsin and Clemson.
- Teams that unexpectedly might need to win conference tourney to get in: Connecticut and Gonzaga.
- Conference Bubble Battles: Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Cincinnati in the Big East and Saint Joseph’s, VCU, Davidson, and George Washington in the A-10.
- High impact bubble games this weekend: VCU vs. Davidson, Clemson vs. Florida State, Vanderbilt vs. Texas, Stanford vs. Utah, Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech, and Creighton vs. Seton Hall
- These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
- AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
- These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.