January 29, 2016

1 Oklahoma 17 Providence 33 Oregon State 51 Will & Mary
2 N Carolina 18 Utah 34 Texas Tech 52 S. Dakota St
3 Xavier 19 Louisville 35 Florida 53 UC Irvine
4 Villanova 20 Purdue 36 Arizona 54 Princeton
5 Iowa 21 Kentucky 37 S Carolina 55 Ark-Little Rock
6 Kansas 22 Michigan 38 Washington 56 Stony Brook
7 Oregon 23 Notre Dame 39 Alabama 57 Kent St
8 Virginia 24 Colorado 40 Syracuse 58 Belmont
9 Iowa State 25 Texas 41 UCLA 59 New Mex St
10 Maryland 26 USC 42 Seton Hall 60 UAB
11 Miami 27 California 43 George Wash 61 N. Florida
12 W Virginia 28 Duke 44 St. Mary’s 62 UNC-Asheville
13 Texas A&M 29 Pittsburgh 45 Boise St 63 Montana
14 Michigan St 30 Indiana 46 Connecticut 64 S F Austin
15 Dayton 31 Stanford 47 Wichita St 65 Bucknell
16 Baylor 32 Florida State 48 Monmouth 66 Hampton
49 Valpo 67 Texas So
50 Chattanooga 68 Mt St Mary’s

Last four in: Syracuse, UCLA, Seton Hall, George Wash

First four out: Vanderbilt, Butler, Cincinnati, St. Joseph’s

ACC: 9,  Pac-12: 9,  Big-12: 7,  Big-10: 6,  SEC: 5,  Big East: 5,  A-10: 2

Analysis:

  1. Oregon is way undervalued by most brackets. They are 7-1 vs. the top 50 with RPI of 4 and SOS of 6. They are better than a 4 seed.
  2. On the other end, Arizona is way overvalued. Perhaps the name is carrying them right now. They are 0-4 vs. top 50 with RPI of 37 and SOS of 104. They don’t have any bad losses and they have several top 50 games coming up so we’ll find out if they truly are overrated, but their resume right now says 9 seed, not 5 seed.
  3. The Big-12 is very top heavy in RPI with 6 teams in top 25 and 7 teams in top 50 (with 8th just outside it). Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State don’t have great records, but strong SOS and RPI. I don’t think they’ll get more than 7 teams, so I expect Texas Tech and/or Kansas State to fall out as losses mount. The top 5 teams will likely all get top 4 seeds.
  4. It’s always very difficult to place teams that have very few games against the top 50 like St. Mary’s and South Carolina. It’s also very difficult to place teams that have several good wins and several bad losses like Wisconsin and Clemson.
  5. Teams that unexpectedly might need to win conference tourney to get in: Connecticut and Gonzaga.
  6. Conference Bubble Battles: Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Cincinnati in the Big East and Saint Joseph’s, VCU, Davidson, and George Washington in the A-10.
  7. High impact bubble games this weekend: VCU vs. Davidson, Clemson vs. Florida State, Vanderbilt vs. Texas, Stanford vs. Utah, Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech, and Creighton vs. Seton Hall

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ-only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.

January 27, 2016

1 1 Oklahoma
2 North Carolina
3 Xavier
4 Iowa
2 5 Villanova
6 Kansas
7 Oregon
8 Maryland
3 9 Texas A&M
10 Iowa State
11 Virginia
12 Miami
4 13 West Virginia
14 Michigan St
15 Dayton
16 Baylor
5 17 Providence
18 Lousiville
19 Utah
20 Purdue
6 21 Texas
22 Colorado
23 Kentucky
24 Arizona
7 25 Michigan
26 California
27 Notre Dame
28 Oregon State
8 29 Indiana
30 USC
31 Pittsburgh
32 Duke
9 33 Stanford
34 Florida State
35 George Washington
36 St. Mary’s
10 37 Washington
38 Wisconsin
39 South Carolina
40 Florida
11 41 Texas Tech
42 UCLA
43 Alabama
44 Boise St
12 45 Connecticut
46 Wichita St
47 Monmouth
48 VCU
49 Valpo
50 Chattanooga
13 51 Will & Mary
52 S. Dakota St
53 UC Irvine
54 Princeton
14 55 Ark-Little Rock
56 Stony Brook
57 Kent St
58 Belmont
15 59 Grand Canyon
60 UAB
61 N. Florida
62 UNC-Asheville
16 63 Montana
64 Stephen F Austin
65 Bucknell
66 Hampton
67 Texas Southern
68 Mt St Mary’s

Analysis: This is my first bracket of the year and there’s so much I could say, but I don’t have a lot of time at the moment. For now, I will just say this: nit-picking over seeds at this point is mostly meaningless because so much can change in a few weeks. I will provide more analysis as we get closer to championship week.

Notes:

  1. These reflect my prediction of the Selection Committee’s selections as if today were Selection Sunday, not a prediction of what will happen on the actual Selection Sunday.
  2. AQ only conference champions are selected by standings then RPI.
  3. These do no reflect “building the bracket” adjustments. I will make those in my final bracket prediction only.