Bracket: East & South on one side and Midwest & West on other
|4||Kentucky||20||Minnesota||36||Arkansas||54||Fla Gulf Coast|
|5||Arizona||21||Creighton||37||VCU||55||New Mexico St|
|7||N Carolina||23||Wisconsin||39||Seton Hall||57||Iona|
|9||Baylor||25||Michigan||41||Michigan St||59||Texas So|
|10||Louisville||26||St. Mary’s||42||Wake Forest||60||Kent St|
|11||Oregon||27||SMU||43||Kansas St||61||North Dakota|
|13||Florida St||29||Va Tech||45||Rhode Island||63||UC Davis|
|14||Notre Dame||30||Oklahoma St||46||USC||64||S Dakota St|
|15||Virginia||31||Northwestern||47||Mid Ten||65||NC Central|
|16||Butler||32||Wichita St||48||Nevada||66||Jacksonville St|
|49||UNC-Wilm||67||Mt St Mary’s|
- Villanova is a lock for #1 overall. Kansas is also a lock for a 1 seed. I think Gonzaga is a lock as well. I think the final slot goes to Kentucky with Arizona, Duke, and N Carolina all right there. I think Arizona and Gonzaga should get paired out west and Duke and Kentucky in the south. N Carolina in the Midwest with Kansas and UCLA in the east with Villanova. I think all of those teams except Gonzaga have a great chance at winning it all.
- Tough calls:
- Final 1 seed between Kentucky, Duke, N Carolina, and Arizona.
- 2 seed: UCLA, Oregon, Baylor, or Louisville. I picked UCLA because of their top road wins and lack of bad losses.
- 3 seed: Florida or Florida St? Seminoles beat Gators and have more top 50 wins, but Gators have cleaner resume below top 50. I’m giving Florida a slight edge.
- Where to put Butler? Top wins are among the best in nation, but they also have some ugly losses. They’re definitely on the 4-5 cut line.
- Where to put Wichita St? Traditional resume says 8-9 seed at best. Predictive ratings say 4-5 seed at worst. Does committee go down the middle with 6 or 7? I think they’ll be 8 or 9 seed. I lean toward 9, but to play for better score I’m going to flop them and Xavier.
- Where will they put the last four in? I think they should all fall on the 11 seed line. If Rhode Island and Mid Ten end up on the 11 line, then the last two AL teams will be on the 12 line.
- USC or Syracuse? I think it’s pretty clear this is the decision to make for last in. USC has the RPI and Syracuse has the top 50 wins. Illinois St has good RPI but no top 100 wins other than Wich St and New Mexico. I’m giving the nod to USC, because of Syracuse’s bad RPI and bad losses. Orange getting in would be historic.
- Getting all the AQ teams seeds right isn’t always easy but can really add to the point total. I’m mostly concerned about the crowded 16 seed line. Which of the seven teams (the six I have + Troy) get the 15?