February 21, 2017

Seeds:

2-21-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Creighton 33 Iowa St 51 UT-Arlington
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Oklahoma St 52 Nevada
3 Gonzaga 19 Notre Dame 35 Dayton 53 Valpo
4 Baylor 20 Wisconsin 36 Michigan St 54 Vermont
5 Louisville 21 Butler 37 Michigan 55 Princeton
6 N Carolina 22 Maryland 38 Kansas St 56 Belmont
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 TCU 57 UNC-Ash
8 Arizona 24 Minnesota 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Florida 25 Northwestern 41 Wichita St 59 Furman
10 Kentucky 26 USC 42 Arkansas 60 N Dakota St
11 Florida St 27 Va Tech 43 Tennessee 61 Cal-Baker
12 Duke 28 S Carolina 44 Marquette 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 UCLA 29 St. Mary’s 45 Seton Hall 63 Texas So
14 Purdue 30 SMU 46 Georgia Tech 64 New Orleans
15 Virginia 31 VCU 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 W Virginia 32 Miami 48 Akron 66 UC Irvine
49 UNC-Wilm 67 North Dakota
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Still astonished how weak the bubble teams are resume-wise.
  2. Conference finishes to watch
    1. ACC — I can still see Louisville or UNC jumping up to a 1 seed and Duke or Florida St jumping up to a 2 seed. Should be fun to watch. Still to come:
      1. Louisville vs. UNC
      2. Florida St vs. Duke
      3. Duke vs. UNC
    2. SEC — Florida and Kentucky are duking it out for the 3 seed and maybe 2 seed.
      1. Kentucky vs. Florida this Saturday
    3. Pac12 — Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA?
      1. UCLA vs. Arizona Saturday
    4. Mo Valley — Wichita St and Illinois St in Arch Madness finale.
    5. A10 — VCU vs. Dayton next Wednesday. Neither loser will feel too good about at large, though I think both will make it, unless they drop other games.
  3. Bubble games this week:
    1. Iowa St at Texas Tech
    2. Clemson at Virginia Tech
    3. NC State at Georgia Tech
    4. St. John’s at Marquette
    5. Vanderbilt at Tennessee (both are in must not lose situations)
    6. Michigan at Rutgers
    7. Duke at Syracuse (cuse need this one badly)
    8. TCU at Kansas (win and frogs are in)
    9. Xavier at Seton Hall
    10. Pittsburgh at Wake Forest
    11. Texas A&M at Arkansas
    12. Oregon at Cal (win and Bears are in)
    13. Oklahoma St at Kansas St (‘cats can’t lost this one)
    14. Nebraska at Michigan St
    15. Florida St at Clemson (tigers need this one badly)
    16. UNC at Pittsburgh (Panthers need this one badly)
    17. Tennessee at South Carolina
    18. West Virginia at TCU (big week for the frogs)
    19. Texas Tech at Oklahoma St
    20. Miss St at Vandy
    21. Purdue at Michigan
    22. Baylor at Iowa St (win puts clones in)
    23. Kansas St at Oklahoma (another must win for ‘cats)
    24. Arkansas at Auburn
    25. Syracuse at Louisville (two wins for cuse this week and they’re in)
    26. Wisconsin at Michigan St (win and Sparty is in)
    27. Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

February 13, 2017

Seeds:

2-13-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Creighton 33 Dayton 51 UT-Arlington
2 Kansas 18 Cincinnati 34 Kansas St 52 Boise St
3 Baylor 19 Notre Dame 35 Oklahoma St 53 Valpo
4 Gonzaga 20 Butler 36 Miami 54 Vermont
5 N Carolina 21 Wisconsin 37 Iowa St 55 Princeton
6 Louisville 22 Maryland 38 Michigan St 56 Belmont
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 Michigan 57 UNC-Ash
8 Arizona 24 Northwestern 40 California 58 Bucknell
9 Florida St 25 Va Tech 41 Tennessee 59 Furman
10 Florida 26 USC 42 Syracuse 60 N Dakota St
11 Kentucky 27 S Carolina 43 Wake Forest 61 Cal-Baker
12 Virginia 28 Minnesota 44 Wichita St 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 Duke 29 SMU 45 Clemson 63 Texas So
14 UCLA 30 St. Mary’s 46 Pittsburgh 64 New Orleans
15 W Virginia 31 TCU 47 Mid Ten 65 Mt St Mary’s
16 Purdue 32 VCU 48 Akron 66 UC Davis
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Weber St
50 Monmouth 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The RPI is back! I thought the committee was moving away from the RPI, but based on their top 16, they still weigh it heavily. I had to shake up my 16 to match theirs. I wish I could see their bubble!
  2. The ACC has a mess of bubble teams with terrible records because of their tough schedule. It’s gonna be difficult to determine who gets in and who doesn’t.
  3. Non-power conference teams are really down this year. I see few opportunities for bubble bursting auto seeds. Which means many not-so-good bubble teams will get in when they otherwise wouldn’t and the heartbreak will be mostly reserved for the regular season champs who lose the conference tourney.
  4. I still don’t feel good about teams from TCU downward. I feel way less certain than in years past. I don’t know what the committee is going to do.
  5. Chance to enhance review = missed chances:
    1. Clemson lost both
    2. Kansas St lost both
    3. Miami beat Va Tech and lost a close one to Louisville
  6. Bubble games to watch this week (winner in bold):
    1. Louisville at Syracuse
    2. Wake Forest at Clemson
    3. Va Tech at Pittsburgh
    4. Arkansas at South Carolina
    5. Iowa State at Kansas State
    6. Providence at Xavier
    7. Georgia Tech at Miami
    8. Creighton at Seton Hall
    9. Indiana at Minnesota
    10. Oklahoma St at TCU
    11. Wisconsin at Michigan
    12. Clemson at Miami
    13. Villanova at Seton Hall
    14. Wake Forest at Duke
    15. Va Tech at Louisville
    16. Michigan State at Purdue
    17. Florida State at Pittsburgh
    18. TCU at Iowa State
    19. Xavier at Marquette
    20. Georgetown at Creighton
    21. Syracuse at Georgia Tech
    22. Michigan at Minnesota
  7. I’m not confident that the MoVal loser will get in, but I think Wichita State has a better chance of making it as an at large. Illinois St has better RPI, but 3 bad losses. Wichita St has no bad losses and each team’s only top 50 win is against each other at home. The problem for the Shockers is that a loss to the Redbirds might do them in.

February 6, 2017

Seeds:

2-6-17 Bracket.png

Rankings:

1 Villanova 17 Cincinnati 33 Iowa St 51 Akron
2 Baylor 18 Purdue 34 Dayton 52 Winthrop
3 Gonzaga 19 Wisconsin 35 Indiana 53 Fla Gulf Coast
4 Kansas 20 Creighton 36 Marquette 54 Monmouth
5 Louisville 21 Maryland 37 Seton Hall 55 New Mex St
6 Kentucky 22 Florida 38 Michigan St 56 Ark St
7 Oregon 23 Xavier 39 Tennessee 57 Princeton
8 Arizona 24 St. Mary’s 40 Oklahoma St 58 Vermont
9 N Carolina 25 Northwestern 41 Miami 59 Bucknell
10 Florida St 26 S Carolina 42 Georgia Tech 60 N Dakota St
11 Duke 27 USC 43 Syracuse 61 Belmont
12 UCLA 28 Va Tech 44 California 62 ETSU
13 Virginia 29 Minnesota 45 Clemson 63 Texas So
14 Butler 30 SMU 46 Wichita St 64 Sam Houston
15 W Virginia 31 TCU 47 Mid Ten 65 UC Davis
16 Notre Dame 32 Kansas St 48 Valpo 66 Mt St Mary’s
49 UNC-Wilm 67 Weber St
50 Nevada 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The drop-off in resumes really starts with Northwestern at 25. Seeds 11+ are incredibly weak compared to recent history.
  2. Chance to enhance results:
    1. Pitt – L,L
    2. Illinois – L,L
    3. Iowa St – L,W
    4. Georgia – L,L
    5. Miami – L,W
  3. This week’s chance to enhance:
    1. Clemson (Syracuse & Duke)
    2. Miami (Va Tech & Louisville)
    3. Kansas St (Kansas & W Virginia)

January 30, 2017

Seeds:

1-30-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Baylor 17 Cincinnati 33 Marquette 51 Akron
2 Villanova 18 Purdue 34 Georgia Tech 52 Winthrop
3 Gonzaga 19 Wisconsin 35 SMU 53 Fla Gulf Coast
4 Kansas 20 Creighton 36 Clemson 54 Monmouth
5 Arizona 21 Maryland 37 Michigan St 55 New Mex St
6 Louisville 22 Florida 38 NC State 56 Ga Southern
7 Kentucky 23 Xavier 39 Kansas St 57 Princeton
8 Florida St 24 St. Mary’s 40 Tennessee 58 Vermont
9 UCLA 25 Northwestern 41 Arkansas 59 Bucknell
10 Oregon 26 Va Tech 42 Iowa St 60 N Dakota St
11 Notre Dame 27 USC 43 Oklahoma St 61 Belmont
12 N Carolina 28 S Carolina 44 Texas Tech 62 ETSU
13 Duke 29 Seton Hall 45 Miami 63 Texas So
14 Butler 30 Minnesota 46 Mid Ten 64 Sam Houston
15 W Virginia 31 Indiana 47 Valpo 65 UC Davis
16 Virginia 32 Dayton 48 UNC-Wilm 66 Mt St Mary’s
49 Illinois St 67 Weber St
50 Nevada 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. The Bubble is still a big mess. Seeds 8+ are in danger of falling out each week. I can’t choose between them very well just yet, so hopefully it’ll work itself out.
  2. The Big 12 is bubble-rific, with 4 teams dancing on the edge.
  3. How far will Creighton fall?
  4. Teams just out in no particular order: Wake Forest, Michigan, Illinois, Utah, VCU, Georgia, Cal, Ole Miss, Pitt, Wichita St, Auburn, Vandy
  5. Chance in enhance this week of seeds 8+: Pitt (UNC, Duke), Illinois (Wisc, Minn), Iowa St (WVa, Kansas), Georgia (Kentucky, SCar), Miami (Fla St, NC State),
  6. I can’t wait for that first week of March!

 

January 23, 2017

Rankings:

1-23-17-bracket

Seeds:

1 Villanova Baylor Kansas Gonzaga
2 Kentucky Florida St Louisville Arizona
3 Creighton UCLA Oregon Notre Dame
4 N Carolina Duke Butler Virginia
5 W Virginia Xavier Florida Purdue
6 St. Mary’s Cincinnati Wisconsin Minnesota
7 Maryland Indiana Northwestern Va Tech
8 Seton Hall USC TCU Dayton
9 SMU S Carolina Michigan St Arkansas
10 NC State Texas Tech Kansas St Clemson
11 Pittsburgh Illinois Mid Ten Michigan Miami Iowa St
12 Valpo UNC-Wilm Illinois St Nevada
13 Chattanooga Akron Winthrop Fla Gulf Coast
14 Monmouth New Mex St Ga Southern Princeton
15 Vermont Bucknell N Dakota St Belmont
16 Texas So New Orleans UC Irvine Mt St Mary’s Weber St NC Central

Notes:

  1. Dropped out: Ole Miss, Wake Forest, VCU
  2. Now in: Kansas St, Michigan, Miami
  3. Just on the outside in no particular order: Wake Forest, VCU, Marquette, Utah, Georgia, Ole Miss
  4. Seeds 8-11 are very up in the air right now. I had a hard time weighing the resumes, so I don’t put much stock in their order right now.
  5. Games I have my eye on this week: Duke v. NC State, Iowa St v. Kansas St , Purdue v. Michigan St, Louisville v. Pitt, Kansas v. W. Virginia, Villanova v. Marquette, Texas Tech v. Baylor, Nevada v. Boise St, UCLA v. USC, Xavier v. Cincinnati, Va Tech v. N Carolina, Indiana v. Michigan, Oregon v. Utah
  6. I’ll update Friday.

January 16, 2017

Seeds:

1-16-17-bracket

Ranking:

1 Villanova 17 Xavier 33 Dayton 51 Chattanooga
2 Baylor 18 Arizona 34 Michigan St 52 Akron
3 Kansas 19 Florida 35 Arkansas 53 Fla Gulf Coast
4 Gonzaga 20 Purdue 36 NC State 54 Monmouth
5 Kentucky 21 St. Mary’s 37 Texas Tech 55 New Mex St
6 Florida St 22 Cincinnati 38 SMU 56 Ga Southern
7 UCLA 23 Minnesota 39 South Carolina 57 Princeton
8 Creighton 24 Maryland 40 Wake Forest 58 Vermont
9 Louisville 25 Indiana 41 Pittsburgh 59 N Dakota St
10 Oregon 26 Northwestern 42 Illinois 60 UNC-Ash
11 Notre Dame 27 Clemson 43 Mid Ten 61 Bucknell
12 W Virginia 28 Va Tech 44 Ole Miss 62 Belmont
13 N Carolina 29 Wisconsin 45 Iowa St 63 Texas So
14 Duke 30 Seton Hall 46 VCU 64 New Orleans
15 Butler 31 USC 47 Oakland 65 UC Irvine
16 Virginia 32 TCU 48 UNC-Wilm 66 Mt St Mary’s
49 Illinois St 67 Weber St
50 Nevada 68 NC Central

Notes:

  1. Next five out: Michigan, Miami, Utah, Georgia, California, Kansas St
  2. The bubble teams are a mess.  A lot of not very impressive resumes.
  3. There ar 23 one-bid leagues and none of them have very strong resumes. Mid Ten has the strongest with wins against UNC-W and Ole Miss.
  4. 11 of the 15 ACC teams are currently in, but Wake Forest, Pitt, and NC State are all very vulnerable right now. Fortunately for them they have many chances to improve the resume. Unfortunately, they are staring at the likelihood of losses piling up.
  5. Indiana’s RPI is terrible, but they have a decent resume. The lowest RPI at-large bid I’ve seen get in was 66, but the committee is talking about looking at other metrics, which will make this job harder.
  6. Is it March yet?

January 10, 2017

Seeds:

1-10-17-bracket

Rankings:

1 Baylor 17 North Carolina 33 USC 51 Nicholls
2 Villanova 18 Purdue 34 TCU 52 New Mex St
3 Kansas 19 St. Mary’s 35 Michigan St 53 UT-Arlington
4 Kentucky 20 Virginia 36 Wake Forest 54 Akron
5 Florida St 21 Arizona 37 Pittsburgh 55 Monmouth
6 UCLA 22 Florida 38 South Carolina 56 Vermont
7 Gonzaga 23 Northwestern 39 Illinois 57 Chattanooga
8 Creighton 24 Clemson 40 Texas Tech 58 E. Wash
9 Butler 25 Va Tech 41 Ole Miss 59 ND State
10 Louisville 26 Maryland 42 VCU 60 Yale
11 Minnesota 27 Cincinnati 43 Mid Ten 61 UNC-Ash
12 Oregon 28 NC State 44 SMU 62 Fla Gulf Coast
13 Duke 29 Seton Hall 45 Kansas St 63 Bucknell
14 Xavier 30 Dayton 46 Iowa St 64 Belmont
15 W. Virginia 31 Arkansas 47 Valpo 65 Texas So
16 Notre Dame 32 Wisconsin 48 UNC-Wilm 66 NC Central
49 Illinois St 67 UC Irvine
50 Nevada 68 Mt St Mary’s

Notes:

  1. It’s still way too early to discern between resumes, especially the teams on the bubble. Right now the bubble is thin in terms of resumes, but that will change.
  2. I don’t have first four or next four out, yet. Soon.
  3. I haven’t nit-picked between resumes yet among the top seeds either. I will do that in due course, but things will change between now and then anyway, so this really just offers me a starting point. We still have two months and the only one that really matters is the final prediction!
  4. I took the top team from each one-bid league as the conference champion for now. I will later adjust to incorporate league standings, but they just haven’t played enough games to use that at this point. I expect the RPI leader will likely prevail in most leagues.
  5. Bids by conference: ACC 11, Big12 7, BigTen 7, Big East 5, SEC 5, Pac12 4, AAC 2, WCC 2, A10 2

Final Bracket

I posted my 1-68 seeding list in the previous post. This post will show my final bracket by region. I have an alternate in the case that Memphis wins this afternoon.

Final Bracket (Memphis loses):

East – Philadelphia South – Louisville Midwest – Chicago West – Anaheim
1 Virginia 1 N Carolina 1 Kansas 1 Michigan St
2 Oklahoma 2 Villanova 2 Xavier 2 Oregon
3 Kentucky 3 Utah 3 Miami 3 W Virginia
4 Maryland 4 Indiana 4 Purdue 4 Duke
5 Arizona 5 Iowa St 5 Texas A&M 5 California
6 Seton Hall 6 Texas 6 Baylor 6 Notre Dame
7 Wisconsin 7 Colorado 7 Iowa 7 St. Joseph’s
8 Providence 8 Dayton 8 Connecticut 8 Texas Tech
9 Cincinnati 9 Butler 9 USC 9 Oregon St
10 VCU 10 Pittsburgh 10 St. Bona 10 Gonzaga
11 Michigan 11 N. Iowa 11 Wichita St. vs.
St. Mary’s
11 Temple vs.
San Diego St
12 UNC-W 12 Ark-LR 12 S Dakota St 12 Fresno St
13 Yale 13 Chattanooga 13 Stony Brook 13 Hawaii
14 Iona 14 MTSU 14 SF Austin 14 Buffalo
15 Green Bay 15 UNC-Ash 15 CS Baker 15 Weber St
16 Southern vs. Fla Gulf Coast 16 Hampton 16 Holy Cross vs. Fair Dickinson 16 Austin Peay

 

Final Bracket (Memphis wins):

East – Philadelphia South – Louisville Midwest – Chicago West – Anaheim
1 Virginia 1 N Carolina 1 Kansas 1 Michigan St
2 Oklahoma 2 Villanova 2 Xavier 2 Oregon
3 Kentucky 3 Utah 3 Miami 3 W Virginia
4 Maryland 4 Indiana 4 Purdue 4 Duke
5 Arizona 5 Iowa St 5 Texas A&M 5 California
6 Seton Hall 6 Texas 6 Baylor 6 Notre Dame
7 Wisconsin 7 Colorado 7 Iowa 7 St. Joseph’s
8 Providence 8 Dayton 8 Connecticut 8 Texas Tech
9 Cincinnati 9 Butler 9 USC 9 Oregon St
10 VCU 10 Pittsburgh 10 St. Bona 10 Gonzaga
11 Michigan 11 N. Iowa 11 Wichita St. vs. St. Mary’s 11 Temple vs. UNC-W
12 Chattanooga 12 Ark-LR 12 S Dakota St 12 Fresno St.
13 Yale 13 Memphis 13 Stony Brook 13 Hawaii
14 Iona 14 MTSU 14 SF Austin 14 Buffalo
15 Green Bay 15 UNC-Ash 15 CS Baker 15 Weber St
16 Southern vs.
Fla Gulf Coast
16 Hampton 16 Holy Cross vs. Fair Dickinson 16 Austin Peay

Final 1-68 Seeds

Just like the committee, I have an alternate bracket ready in case Memphis wins this afternoon.

Final 1-68 Seeding (Memphis loses):

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Oregon St 51 Chattanooga
2 Virginia 18 Arizona 34 Butler 52 Yale
3 Michigan St 19 Iowa St 35 USC 53 Stony Brook
4 N Carolina 20 California 36 Cincinnati 54 Hawaii
5 Villanova 21 Baylor 37 Pittsburgh 55 MTSU
6 Oregon 22 Notre Dame 38 St. Bona 56 Buffalo
7 Oklahoma 23 Texas 39 VCU 57 Iona
8 Xavier 24 Seton Hall 40 Gonzaga 58 SF Austin
9 Utah 25 Iowa 41 Michigan 59 Green Bay
10 W Virginia 26 Wisconsin 42 St. Mary’s 60 UNC-Ash
11 Miami 27 St. Joseph’s 43 Temple 61 CS Baker
12 Kentucky 28 Colorado 44 Wichita St 62 Weber St
13 Indiana 29 Dayton 45  San Diego St 63 Austin Peay
14 Purdue 30 Texas Tech 46 N. Iowa 64 Hampton
15 Duke 31 Providence 47 UNC-W 65 FGC
16 Maryland 32 Connecticut 48 Fresno St 66 Southern
49 Ark-LR 67 Fair Dickinson
50 S Dakota St 68 Holy Cross

 

Final 1-68 Seeding (Memphis wins):

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Oregon St 51 Yale
2 Virginia 18 Arizona 34 Butler 52 Memphis
3 Michigan St 19 Iowa St 35 USC 53 Stony Brook
4 N Carolina 20 California 36 Cincinnati 54 Hawaii
5 Villanova 21 Baylor 37 Pittsburgh 55 MTSU
6 Oregon 22 Notre Dame 38 St. Bona 56 Buffalo
7 Oklahoma 23 Texas 39 VCU 57 Iona
8 Xavier 24 Seton Hall 40 Gonzaga 58 SF Austin
9 Utah 25 Iowa 41 Michigan 59 Green Bay
10 W Virginia 26 Wisconsin 42 St. Mary’s 60 UNC-Ash
11 Miami 27 St. Joseph’s 43 Temple 61 CS Baker
12 Kentucky 28 Colorado 44 Wichita St 62 Weber St
13 Indiana 29 Dayton 45 N. Iowa 63 Austin Peay
14 Purdue 30 Texas Tech 46 UNC-W 64 Hampton
15 Duke 31 Providence 47 Fresno St 65 FGC
16 Maryland 32 Connecticut 48 Ark-LR 66 Southern
49 S Dakota St 67 Fair Dickinson
50 Chattanooga 68 Holy Cross

 

 

March 9, 2016

1 Kansas 17 Texas A&M 33 Butler 51 UNC-W
2 Virginia 18 Arizona 34 S Carolina 52 Chattanooga
3 Villanova 19 Iowa St 35 Pittsburgh 53 Yale
4 Michigan St 20 Texas 36 St. Joseph’s 54 Stony Brook
5 Oregon 21 California 37 Vanderbilt 55 Hawaii
6 Oklahoma 22 Baylor 38 Syracuse 56 UAB
7 N Carolina 23 Iowa 39 Connecticut 57 Iona
8 Utah 24 Wisconsin 40 Cincinnati 58 Green Bay
9 Miami 25 Dayton 41 VCU 59 UNC-Ash
10 Xavier 26 Notre Dame 42 Wichita St 60 New Mex St
11 W Virginia 27 Texas Tech 43 Temple 61 S F Austin
12 Kentucky 28 Colorado 44 St. Bona 62 Weber St
13 Indiana 29 Seton Hall 45 Gonzaga 63 Austin Peay
14 Duke 30 Oregon St 46 Akron 64 Lehigh
15 Purdue 31 USC 47 N. Iowa 65 FGC
16 Maryland 32 Providence 48 San Diego St 66 Hampton
49 Ark-LR 67 Fair Dickinson
50 S Dakota St 68 Texas So